Iran Super Thread- Merged

[ytz]

If it’s a blockade solely of Iranian ports, maybe some gulf partners? But that might invite further reprisal they’d rather avoid. I dunno. I’m inclined to think he was just making that up the way he tends to do.

I'm getting the feeling he didn't give anyone a heads up again, just like the initial attack. The drop everything and help strategy he seems to favour regardless of it's lackluster track record.

They are going to be involved. The only actual threat to the regime is cutting off their revenue. If I am in the shoes of the IRGC, I would respond to any blockade by direct attacks on GCC O&G export infrastructure.

The American blockade effectively drives global prices higher. If Trump can't stand $120 oil, the regime goal should be to drive it up as fast and as high as possible to force capitulation. The only way for the US to make this strategy actually work is to impose the blockade, make a massive SPR withdrawal and resume attacks on Iran. It has to be a massive pressure campaign at this point. And everybody else is just along for the ride. Anything less and the regime comes out of this on a trajectory to being stronger than before the war. If Trump doesn't have the stomach for a month of $200 oil and a year of $100 oil, then the other option is ceding a strategic victory to the regime.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If I am in the shoes of the IRGC, I would respond to any blockade by direct attacks on GCC O&G export infrastructure.

They could try that. They'd ultimately be cutting their own throat. Their ability to play the outlaw relies upon a system of rules that others accept as limits on their actions. If Iran violates rules and the rules are not enforced by the community of rule-respecters, then the rules become diminished if not approximately void and some limits on actions of others are removed.

 

[HavokFour]

That's a 'no' from France now too.

NATO allies refuse to join Trump's Iranian port blockade

NATO allies said on Monday they would not get involved in U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to blockade Iranian ports, proposing to intervene only once fighting ends, in a move likely to anger Trump and increase strains in the alliance.

www.reuters.com

 

[HavokFour]

China reacting to the blockade.

Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun in a message to the Trump Admin and to the U.S. Navy:

“Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor those agreements and expect others not to interfere in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us.”

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043717796014518455

 

[GR66]

China reacting to the blockade.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043717796014518455

Interesting part of the quote to me was "Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz". I'm not sure that's a flex they want to make about an International Strait.

I wonder how they'd feel if for example Singapore declared that they "control the Strait of Malacca"?

 

[kkwd]

China reacting to the blockade.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043717796014518455

The X poster pulled the post since it was unverified.

 

[kkwd]

That's a 'no' from France now too.

NATO allies refuse to join Trump's Iranian port blockade

NATO allies said on Monday they would not get involved in U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to blockade Iranian ports, proposing to intervene only once fighting ends, in a move likely to anger Trump and increase strains in the alliance.

www.reuters.com

That's not a "hard no", they will show up when it's "safe".