Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

They wanted to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon. But the only way to do that is regime change.

There isn't really a hundred-percent-assured way of preventing any country from getting a nuclear weapon. There is only persuading it that it isn't worth the cost. Undoubtedly the current government has a price, just like every other one.

 

[QV]

As long as you agree that we have moved on from the age of appeasement to the age of throwing shit at a wail and praying it works only to give up the next day due to blinding incompetence.

Yay.

We don't. I'm firmly in the 80% solution now is better than the 100% solution never camp.

 

[Altair]

There isn't really a hundred-percent-assured way of preventing any country from getting a nuclear weapon. There is only persuading it that it isn't worth the cost. Undoubtedly the current government has a price, just like every other one.

And some regimes dont care about prices when they view the conflict as existential, and this war will only have reinforced that.


Others still,

 

[Altair]

We don't. I'm firmly in the 80% solution now is better than the 100% solution never camp.

What solution? Is the solution in the room with us?

 

[Brad Sallows]

And some regimes dont care about prices when they view the conflict as existential, and this war will only have reinforced that.

There's always a price. I'm unpersuaded that the senior members of the IRGC don't want to enjoy the pleasures of life.

 

[QV]

Don't act like Iran is the same country it was 2 months ago. Far from that.

 

[Altair]

Don't act like Iran is the same country it was 2 months ago. Far from that.

Strategically it's the same. Every success the USA has had has tactical in nature.

But tactics win battles, strategies win wars.

Strategically Iran is as strong today as it was two months ago. If not stronger, because now it has defacto control over the strait of hormuz and has the global economy by the balls.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Agreed.

The collective "West" should pinch their noses, show some "leadership" that they claim over the developing world, and finish the job America started.

Anything sort of crushing Iran's ability to terrorize the Gulf, and the broader world, will be a loss for everyone. Regardless of the fact that Orange Man Bad.

Do we (the west) have the stomach for this ?

What kind of political bill would there be for coming to DJTs aid ?

 

[QV]

Strategically it's the same. Every success the USA has had has tactical in nature.

But tactics win battles, strategies win wars.

Strategically Iran is as strong today as it was two months ago. If not stronger, because now it has defacto control over the strait of hormuz and has the global economy by the balls.

Negative. The US has Iran by the balls. It can play whack-a-mole forever, continue to keep Iran shut out economically. Iran cannot go on for long in this circumstance. The US can go on and on.

If the rest of the world pitched in a little - it would help. But instead we have a chorus of orange man bad, bad USA... this makes Iran thinks it has time and prolongs their capitulation.

 

[Altair]

Negative. The US has Iran by the balls. It can play whack-a-mole forever, continue to keep Iran shut out economically. Iran cannot go on for long in this circumstance. The US can go on and on.

If the rest of the world pitched in a little - it would help. But instead we have a chorus of orange man bad, bad USA... this makes Iran thinks it has time and prolongs their capitulation.

The American public will not tolerate this forever.

Trump has political considerations to consider that Iran doesnt. The war is already unpopular in the USA, it's not going to get more popular the longer it goes on.

Toss in recessions and global starvation...

 

[QV]

Meh - you suppose.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Toss in recessions and global starvation...

Prediction: no matter how long this goes on and how painful some of the costs become, everyone is going to be shocked at how well "the invisible hand" prevents the big catastrophes and mitigates the lesser ones. Recessions, sure. Global starvation, nope - not unless governments start confiscating their own peoples' available food to sell at profit in tighter markets or implement other prone-to-failure policies like price controls.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The American public will not tolerate this forever.

Meh - you suppose.

I hate to give Altair credit but he's right. Look at Vietnam, Iraq and Afg.

Shit or get off the pot is coming.

 

[QV]

I hate to give Altair credit but he's right. Look at Vietnam, Iraq and Afg.

Shit or get off the pot is coming.

I'm aware of the political considerations. There are many factors at play that will impact this and the economy.

Stopping now leaves Iran unable to project force in the region for a long time. That is already the 80% solution.

 

[Brad Sallows]

I hate to give Altair credit but he's right. Look at Vietnam, Iraq and Afg.

~10 years (US involvement), ~9 years, ~9 years.

Come on, hobbits. Long ways to go yet.

Realistically, it won't go on that long because Trump attention span is so short.

 

[QV]

If Iran doesn't make a deal, maybe the US just destroys Kharg Island and a few other pieces of critical infrastructure (dual use) and sails home.