Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

Is Iran going to keep the straight closed after the US sails home? What would the rest of the Gulf and all those dependent on Gulf exports do about it?

They’ll keep the strait closed as long as they remain unable to export their oil. It’s their key leverage, and they’ll apply it to their economic vital ground.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

And thus ended the era of appeasement. decision making based on facts

 

[QV]

I worked at the Pentagon, studied in DC, and have deployed under US command to Iraq. There is plenty of sophisticated brain power in the Pentagon who would not / not have recommended that the time was ripe for a shooting war with Iran. They are not the problem. The problem is the leadership from a media personality with very low level military experience, a CinC without a clue who is only doing this to make money for himself, hs family, and his Cabinet, and the complete breakdown of all checks and balances in their political system.

But if it feels good for you to turn this into another chance to jab at your favourite sparring partner, you do you. It is certainly easier than cogent analysis.

Glad to see you are squarely into the minds of all the top brass that occupy those spaces today. Is it your position that there are also sophisticated brain power that might have a different position than yours?

Is there ever a ripe time? When in the last 47 years was ripe? Were there missed opportunities?

If we wait for perfection, we'll be waiting forever.

 

[QV]

@PPCLI Guy on appeasement vs facts you posted above... are you privy to all the facts that are allegedly being ignored today or are you making suppositions?

 

[Halifax Tar]

~10 years (US involvement), ~9 years, ~9 years.

Come on, hobbits. Long ways to go yet.

Realistically, it won't go on that long because Trump attention span is so short.

I'm more like Gimli than the Hobbitses

 

[Altair]

Glad to see you are squarely into the minds of all the top brass that occupy those spaces today. Is it your position that there are also sophisticated brain power that might have a different position than yours?

Is there ever a ripe time? When in the last 47 years was ripe? Were there missed opportunities?

If we wait for perfection, we'll be waiting forever.

Ah, I get it.

You prefer a incompetent shortsighted soup sandwich of a operation that fails on almost every strategic level and accomplishes nothing going forward other than entrench the iranian regime and their hardliners and validates their view that a bomb is the only thing that wil prevent this going forward to doing nothing.

That's fair.

 

[QV]

We all aren't going to agree.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

@PPCLI Guy on appeasement vs facts you posted above... are you privy to all the facts that are allegedly being ignored today or are you making suppositions?

No more so than you do, although I sense that my experience with decision-making in the Pentagon and connections have helped to inform my suppositions - no doubt you have the same kind of network

 

[QV]

No more so than you do, although I sense that my experience with decision-making in the Pentagon and connections have helped to inform my suppositions - no doubt you have the same kind of network

Not at all, I'm an absolute nobody. But I also won't bow to your grand flex. Bottom line, you are working off suppositions like everyone else is here.

 

[ytz]

I think at this point, it would be better for everyone in the world (well outside the Iranian Leadership) if the world decided to opt for some short term pain, and simply get rid of the Iranian Regime once and for all.

I am not so sure it's "short term pain" This is akin to saying Iraq would be a short war.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The market implications are amusing, if Iran continues tolling ships after the US departs.

Producers and/or consumers of Gulf oil will be the ones paying the tribute demanded by Iran.

 

[ytz]

Do we (the west) have the stomach for this ?

What kind of political bill would there be for coming to DJTs aid ?

Forget our own politics. The American people themselves don't want an occupation.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Glad to see you are squarely into the minds of all the top brass that occupy those spaces today. Is it your position that there are also sophisticated brain power that might have a different position than yours?

Is there ever a ripe time? When in the last 47 years was ripe? Were there missed opportunities?

If we wait for perfection, we'll be waiting forever.

Of course. A thoughtful and balanced team will always have differences of opinion, leading to multiple COA, but the decision lies with the commander (Steven Miller? ).

If a firefighter starts a fire, then rescues people from the burning building they are not heroes. They are arsonists.

My opinion is that what makes the timing right is midterms and graft

 

[ytz]

Producers and/or consumers of Gulf oil will be the ones paying the tribute demanded by Iran.

This is like saying refineries will pay carbon taxes.

 

[brihard]

Of course. A thoughtful and balanced team will always have differences of opinion, leading to multiple COA, but the decision lies with the commander (Steven Miller? ).

If a firefighter starts a fire, then rescues people from the burning building they are not heroes. They are arsonists.

My opinion is that what makes the timing right is midterms and graft

Yeah well you’re gonna look like an idiot when they announce this year’s Polymarket Peace Prize.

 

[Brad Sallows]

This is like saying refineries will pay carbon taxes.

Producers can, if they choose, eat part of a cost out of their profits, which is why I included both sides. "Costs will be passed onto consumers" is common rhetoric (I use it), but it isn't actually the only possibility.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Yeah well you’re gonna look like an idiot when they announce this year’s Polymarket Peace Prize.