Iran Super Thread- Merged

[PPCLI Guy]

As to your opinion regarding mid-terms, the safer bet would have been to wait until after the mid-terms. Doing it before runs much more risk.

Harder to fleece the national coffers when you control neither the House nor the Senate - an outcome that is possible gusting to probable

 

[Czech_pivo]

Here you go -

U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months — The Washington Post

A confidential intelligence community assessment delivered to the White House also finds that Iran retains a substantial missile and drone arsenal.

stocks.apple.com

Interesting - from the CIA themselves -

Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.

 

[Altair]

Here you go -

U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months — The Washington Post

A confidential intelligence community assessment delivered to the White House also finds that Iran retains a substantial missile and drone arsenal.

stocks.apple.com

I wonder how much oil they are pouring over the iran pakistan border right now.

They will not want to cap wells and they are likely coming up against it in terms of storage capacity, so they will need to move it over land.

 

[QV]

Is this another one of those confidential intelligence assessments leaked to the press that specifically damages Trump?

Behind a paywall.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Is this another one of those confidential intelligence assessments leaked to the press that specifically damages Trump?

Behind a paywall.

paywall or no paywall it does not paint a pretty picture for the US administration.
You can discount it all you want, but it won’t make it go away or any prettier.

 

[Altair]

Is this another one of those confidential intelligence assessments leaked to the press that specifically damages Trump?

Behind a paywall.

https://archive.ph/UL1pp

 

[Czech_pivo]

More bad news for Trump, this time the Saudi’s delivered it.

Trump’s abrupt U-turn on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz came after backlash from allies

Saudi Arabia, a key Gulf ally, suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, sources say.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[QV]

paywall or no paywall it does not paint a pretty picture for the US administration.
You can discount it all you want, but it won’t make it go away or any prettier.

Right... the unnamed officials, unnamed sources. 100% cred all the time.

 

[Altair]

Right... the unnamed officials, unnamed sources. 100% cred all the time.

I imagine if they named themselves they would be out of a job mate.

 

[KevinB]

Forget our own politics. The American people themselves don't want an occupation.

I would say you can do a lot more but still short of an occupation.

Of course. A thoughtful and balanced team will always have differences of opinion, leading to multiple COA, but the decision lies with the commander (Steven Miller? ).

If a firefighter starts a fire, then rescues people from the burning building they are not heroes. They are arsonists.

My opinion is that what makes the timing right is midterms and graft

The problem I see it is that throwaway COA was taken as the #1.

Rather than bemoan the start of this mess, I prefer to look to what is the best outcome for the West now that Pandora’s Box got opened.

Letting Iran be the regional power is going to be a non starter for Israel. And while some may shrug their shoulders and say the US and Israel needs to fix their mess, let’s be realistic and realize that POTUS and Benny the Bulldozer probably really don’t want this to stop, and that while they are getting a lot of negative opinion, they have their own reasons for letting it drag out.

So if the options are letting the situation be resolved by those two or forming a coalition with a definitive plan and method to implement it — I’d suggest the collective West would be better off being the DD rather than letting the drunks keep driving.

 

[brihard]

I imagine if they named themselves they would be out of a job mate.

It’s called 18 U.S.C. 793(d) and it’s a felony.

So if the options are letting the situation be resolved by those two or forming a coalition with a definitive plan and method to implement it — I’d suggest the collective West would be better off being the DD rather than letting the drunks keep driving.

But does a viable option exist?

 

[Altair]

I would say you can do a lot more but still short of an occupation.


The problem I see it is that throwaway COA was taken as the #1.

Rather than bemoan the start of this mess, I prefer to look to what is the best outcome for the West now that Pandora’s Box got opened.

Letting Iran be the regional power is going to be a non starter for Israel. And while some may shrug their shoulders and say the US and Israel needs to fix their mess, let’s be realistic and realize that POTUS and Benny the Bulldozer probably really don’t want this to stop, and that while they are getting a lot of negative opinion, they have their own reasons for letting it drag out.

So if the options are letting the situation be resolved by those two or forming a coalition with a definitive plan and method to implement it — I’d suggest the collective West would be better off being the DD rather than letting the drunks keep driving.

If the west helps they will be getting into the backseat of the bus driven by the drunks, nowhere near the steering wheel.

Best to stay off and hope the drunks dont kill anyone before they crash.

 

[QV]

I imagine if they named themselves they would be out of a job mate.

Given past instances of bullshit, how much cred do you assign to this specific one?

 

[Brad Sallows]

And while some may shrug their shoulders and say the US and Israel needs to fix their mess, let’s be realistic and realize that POTUS and Benny the Bulldozer probably really don’t want this to stop, and that while they are getting a lot of negative opinion, they have their own reasons for letting it drag out.

Part of the reason this situation arose is that the world essentially left Israel (and the US) to fix their "Iran problem". The more it's left to them to fix, the more likely other people are not going to like the solutions. It's simple "estimate of the situation" arithmetic: neither the US nor Israel is constrained by some of the factors that matter to others.

"Let's see. These things matter to us. If we do X, we get some, if not all, of the things we want, at least for a while."

"But these other ill effects might result."

"Yes, but those don't matter to us. The more Iran tangles with other countries, the less it tangles with us."

Not hard to figure out.

 

[Brad Sallows]

But does a viable option exist?

The "military advantage" sought is pressure leading to capitulation.

Start with, say, bridges. If that isn't enough, move onto something else. Then something else. There is no "you have to invade us, defeat our armies, and occupy our lands" rule. I can guess that the damage would be a lot greater and less focused in that case anyways, and if a conventional land war to defeat another country is thought to be "disproportionate" then LOAC is already dead.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Given past instances of bullshit, how much cred do you assign to this specific one?

Anonymous sources are worthless. Journalism passed the point of no ethical return long ago (eg. asking for rebuttal with insufficient time before going to press).

 

[Altair]

Given past instances of bullshit, how much cred do you assign to this specific one?

considering Iran still has enough capacity to still launch attacks in the region, are still holding out despite a blockade, and the conflict is still going on smashing through each one of trumps deadlines he keeps declaring (how many more 3 more weeks to go?) I would say it seems credible enough.

Trump has famously ignored his strategists before, i wouldn't be surprised if he had this information before and just ignored it.

But if it helps, try to remember how you felt about the drip drip of confidential reports of foreign interference that helped bring down trudeau and apply it here. I dont remember you being skeptical back then.

 

[QV]

considering Iran still has enough capacity to still launch attacks in the region, are still holding out despite a blockade, and the conflict is still going on smashing through each one of trumps deadlines he keeps declaring (how many more 3 more weeks to go?) I would say it seems credible enough.

Trump has famously ignored his strategists before, i wouldn't be surprised if he had this information before and just ignored it.

But if it helps, try to remember how you felt about the drip drip of confidential reports of foreign interference that helped bring down trudeau and apply it here. I dont remember you being skeptical back then.

Are you really unable to differentiate those two examples?