HavokFour
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Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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He had it, but the fake news folks took it away from him? Does that affect his stats on wars he has stopped, like a video review calling back a goal?
Meh, he still has his peace award from FIFA, or Crackerjack, or who ever gave it to him.
daftandbarmy
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Ruh roh...
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Bumped with the latest: US arrests & charges (alleged) ringleader of this and other attacks, Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi.Likely related so I’m posting it here- US consulate in Toronto got shot up this morning. I can’t remember which article had this detail but I read somewhere ten bullet casings. Toronto Police and RCMP investigating.
U.S. Consulate shooting in Toronto being investigated as ‘national security incident’
Police say they will investigate any possible terrorism links as they search for two suspects who fired shots at the U.S. Consulate in Toronto early Tuesday morning.www.ctvnews.ca
Iraqi National Arrested and Charged with Providing Material Support to Iranian-Backed Terrorist Organizations and Directing Attacks Targeting U.S. Citizens and Interests
The Justice Department announced today the arrest of Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, an Iraqi national and senior member of Kata’ib Hizballah, a U.S. designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO).
U.S. links Toronto consulate shooting to alleged Iranian-backed commander | Globalnews.ca
An man has been charged with terrorism offences in the U.S. and is accused of helping direct the March shooting at the U.S. consulate in Toronto and other attacks.
globalnews.ca
US charges Iraqi with plots to target Jews in cities from London to LA
Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi allegedly "directed and urged others to attack US and Israeli interests", in retaliation for the Iran war.
www.bbc.com
US charges alleged Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah suspect – What we know
The US Justice Department has arrested and charged an Iraqi national and senior commander of an Iran-backed armed group
Iran allegedly behind Canada attacks on synagogue, US consulate | The Jerusalem Post
Al-Saadi, working on behalf of the Islamic Regime proxy, told an undercover law enforcement officer that his "people" were behind two attacks in Canada, against a consulate and synagogue.
www.jpost.com
Criminal complaint via US DOJ attached.
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Perfect, thanks, I was looking for the DOJ complaint yesterday and hadn’t found it yet.Bumped with the latest: US arrests, charges (alleged) ringleader of this and other attacks, Iraqi national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi.
Iraqi National Arrested and Charged with Providing Material Support to Iranian-Backed Terrorist Organizations and Directing Attacks Targeting U.S. Citizens and Interests
The Justice Department announced today the arrest of Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, an Iraqi national and senior member of Kata’ib Hizballah, a U.S. designated foreign terrorist organization (FTO).www.justice.gov
U.S. links Toronto consulate shooting to alleged Iranian-backed commander | Globalnews.ca
An man has been charged with terrorism offences in the U.S. and is accused of helping direct the March shooting at the U.S. consulate in Toronto and other attacks.US charges Iraqi with plots to target Jews in cities from London to LA
Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi allegedly "directed and urged others to attack US and Israeli interests", in retaliation for the Iran war.US charges alleged Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah suspect – What we know
The US Justice Department has arrested and charged an Iraqi national and senior commander of an Iran-backed armed groupwww.aljazeera.com
Iran allegedly behind Canada attacks on synagogue, US consulate | The Jerusalem Post
Al-Saadi, working on behalf of the Islamic Regime proxy, told an undercover law enforcement officer that his "people" were behind two attacks in Canada, against a consulate and synagogue.
Criminal complaint via US DOJ attached.
Not a ton of detail about the Canadian angle in it… But at first glance the criminal complaint looks to describe phone calls in mid to late March made by a suspect to an FBI informant and which the informant recorded. It refers to attacks in Canada. There’s also talk of terrorist financing methods. I need to give this a read in its entirety later.
Toronto saw Synagogue shootings on March 6th and 7th, and the consulate shooting on the 10th. A youth male was arrested for the synagogue shootings in early May. So, shooting, phone call(s) to FBI informant, arrest by Canadian police (Toronto Police hate crimes, not RCMP national security) a month and a half later.
This one will be interesting to watch. Not appropriate for me to speculate on anything given this looks to be very much a live matter, some before the courts, some under investigation. I can only imagine a wealth of intelligence has been gleaned from the U.S. investigation. I might comment more just on the U.S. side later if I have time to read and digest.
OK- read it. Not a ton to add, but basically looks like the accused was in contact with an FBI informant who acted on direction from police; we'd use the term 'agent'. The informant then introduced the accused to a police undercover who agreed to carry out arson attacks for payment. The accused paid the undercover officer an agreed up front amount to carry out attacks and then followed up on why attacks had not taken place. Classic informant -> agent -> undercover play.
If the account in the criminal complaint holds up, it's pretty compelling. Dude was orchestrating attacks in Europe, the U.S., and apparently Canada. I'd love to know more about what's been done with the Canadian tidbits. Hopefully we learn more about that in the fullness of time.
If the account in the criminal complaint holds up, it's pretty compelling. Dude was orchestrating attacks in Europe, the U.S., and apparently Canada. I'd love to know more about what's been done with the Canadian tidbits. Hopefully we learn more about that in the fullness of time.
has he responded to Iran's idea of taxiing the cables?
OldSolduer
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Maybe the two sides should negotiate by Twitter of FB or Reddit….
How about Truth Social? I’m no Trumpologist, but I think he’s gonna bomb Iran some more.
McG
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Whatever he wants to do next, I hope someone has the plan so that it comes to a positive end-state.
Sure, but they can probably quickly retaliate in an economically significant way. They’ve also had a couple weeks to watch what supply chains have become more strained and to analyze pressure points.
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GK .Dundas
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The Americans have performed with their usual tactical brilliance given one or two hiccups. However if there is a strategy at play here , damned if I can see it .
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If it’s not done before the G7 meeting, Trump will try and high jack the agenda to focus on the Gulf and reopening it.
If it’s not done by the July 4th celebrations then people will be pissed.
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I think Peter Zeihan, for what he is worth, is saying come fall the world physically does not have enough oil in circulation to meet demand, and the markets have no idea how to price that.
Going to be fun.
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Markets don't have to worry about that problem. Governments do.
either Trump has to capitulate or, failing that, the rest of the world has to gang up on Iran. At the moment it is anyone's guess.
Why would ‘the rest of the world’ do that though? Self-interest of individual countries will win out. Iran remains useful to Russia and China as a regional foil to the U.S. It also remains useful as a source of discounted oil. India and Pakistan both want to trade for oil as well. Iran has shown willingness to cut side deals regarding SoH transit.
The Strait is a lot easier for Iran for forde closed than for the U.S. to force open. If the U.S. lacks the wherewithal to force it back open, why would other countries think they can tip that scale?
The things you say ‘have to’ happen don’t actually ‘have to’ happen. The stalemate hurts everyone, but Trump has a shorter political countdown on his ability to sustain this. Iran can likely continue to hold the stalemate until it becomes too costly for the U.S. to maintain a maximalist position.
Iran will hold their line, gas prices, inflation, and the. interest rates will continue to rise, and Trump will need an off-ramp… Unfortunately for somebody else (Cuba?) that will probably require a Great Distraction.
Probably all of this happens NLT a few months before the midterms to allow the Republicans hopes of recovering some lost electoral ground. That means the shaping will be starting now or soon.
As always, I may be utterly wrong.
EDIT TO ADD: And, to be clear, this is another case where what Insee and assess is very different from what I would like and prefer. Better if the Iranian regime were to suddenly collapse and there be a relatively peaceful democratic revolution, a detente in foreign relations, a realignment away from China, Russia, etc. But I call it as I see it and sometimes the facts objectively suck.
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Yeah, most world leaders dont want to double down on failure
And here they have two very unlileable scapegoats. They run out of fuel, they blame america and trump. If they are trunp friendly, they blame Iran.
If they are more neutral, they blame both. Doesnt solve the problem, but it does shifts the blame.
Compare this with going to war with Iran, suffering casualties, losing equipment, probably being unable to force open tbe strait without boots on the ground which means even more casualties. And gods forbid they need to do this under the American-Israeli umbrella.... yuck.
People should get it out of their minds that anyone is going to touch this conflict with a ten foot pole. Not going to happen. Hell, we have seen the gulf states realize the Americans have no clue what to do and have pulled back support, started denying airspace and generally moving away from America. That's far more likely than the other way around.
your reply suggests that my first scenario is the more likely. As Altair suggested, with Trump having spent the last year or more dumping on every single one of his allies whilst backing Xi and Putin what government in their right mind would go to their aid. I suspect if 9/11 happened today NATO would stay on the sidelines. Without significant outside assistance, namely a united boycott of Iran (not likely) the most likely result would seem to have the U.S. declare victory, Iran allowing Trump his moment of glory and the fleet sailing home. The British led fleet will do their mine sweep and declare its own minor victory and another 10,000 Iranians will be executed.
