Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

Trump's reportedly trying to keep it from falling apart again.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2063714296492646678

EDIT: Additional.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2063717555118743955

You know, if Trump had had these thoughts on february 27th it would have save everyone a lot of headaches.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

From TWZ:

Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Attacks On Israel (Updated)

The possibility of open conflict once again between Iran and Israel rose after Tehran struck in response to the IDF bombing Beirut on Sunday,

www.twz.com

 

[Altair]

And now Iran and Israel are ignoring Trump

Israeli military launches retaliatory strikes on Iran after attacks on northern Israel - follow live

The US president earlier urged Israel not to retaliate after Tehran launched its first attack on Israel since April, several outlets reported.

www.bbc.com

• Israel's military says it has launched strikes on military targets in western and central Iran, after warning it would retaliate for the first Iranian attack on Israel since April
• US President Donald Trump earlier urged his Israeli counterpart not to retaliate for the Iranian strikes, according to several outlets. Fox News earlier reported that Trump also told Iran "that's enough"

 

[HavokFour]

Uh oh. Iran is probably going to target O&G in the Gulf states again in retaliation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2063847588722245820

 

[brihard]

Uh oh. Iran is probably going to target O&G in the Gulf states again in retaliation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2063847588722245820

Looks like that particular facility makes feedstock chemicals for various sorts of foam materials. I’m curious what else it feeds the supply chain for that Israel felt it worth hitting- though possibly it was a shot that missed its intended target, or parts of something that was shot down.

By the time we’re all up in the morning we’ll likely have an idea of if this is going to escalate fast or if both sides will be satisfied with some token hits.

The real barometer of how this will go probably remains Israeli actions against Lebanon. Iran seems committed to backing Hezbollah kinetically, even knowing it invites a world of crap their way.

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2063793643853336992

 

[Infanteer]

Reality has a funny way of intruding on "the War is essentially over" and "we destroyed their military" and "we almost have a deal."

 

[KevinB]

Reality has a funny way of intruding on "the War is essentially over" and "we destroyed their military" and "we almost have a deal."

It has become painfully clear that very few people actually understood the depth of reserves of Missiles, SUAS etc that Iran had squirreled away for a rainy day. As well as what low levels that both storage and release authority was spread out to.

I know a few folks who have spend time ‘professionally’ in Iran over the past decade, who have admittedly complete surprise as to the levels of ordnance that has been available (albeit not their area of interest but...).

If we look back to see how isolated that Iran was in the 1980’s, they really have made an exceptional effort (at the sacrifice of almost everything else) to make a self sufficient military industrial complex - from A-Z.

 

[daftandbarmy]

It has become painfully clear that very few people actually understood the depth of reserves of Missiles, SUAS etc that Iran had squirreled away for a rainy day. As well as what low levels that both storage and release authority was spread out to.

I know a few folks who have spend time ‘professionally’ in Iran over the past decade, who have admittedly complete surprise as to the levels of ordnance that has been available (albeit not their area of interest but...).

If we look back to see how isolated that Iran was in the 1980’s, they really have made an exceptional effort (at the sacrifice of almost everything else) to make a self sufficient military industrial complex - from A-Z.

Or, more likely, the Trump people ignored the experts as per SOP

 

[KevinB]

Or, more likely, the Trump people ignored the experts as per SOP

Both can be true

I think there was an serious miscalculation on the levels of ordnance Iran had, and I also believe that POTUS chose to ignore the threat projected.

 

[dapaterson]

I am certain the new DNI will solve all those problems.

 

[childs56]

Both can be true

I think there was an serious miscalculation on the levels of ordnance Iran had, and I also believe that POTUS chose to ignore the threat projected.

large erroneous calculations. This is something one does when they think they are the biggest baddest person on the block. They make bold moves without thinking things through., then blame others for the mistake.

It has become painfully clear that very few people actually understood the depth of reserves of Missiles, SUAS etc that Iran had squirreled away for a rainy day. As well as what low levels that both storage and release authority was spread out to.

I think people in charge were pompous enough to choose and ignore that Iran was a large threat. That had large stock piles of new and old tech. Their allies had directly supported them.

I know a few folks who have spend time ‘professionally’ in Iran over the past decade, who have admittedly complete surprise as to the levels of ordnance that has been available (albeit not their area of interest but...).

I have many friends who have worked in Iran for the past twenty or more years. Their impression has been very positive over their level of technology along with resourcefulness. Iran should never had been underestimated for their Military ability for lower cost solutions. They have been exporting Arms since the early 2000s all while under embargos.

If we look back to see how isolated that Iran was in the 1980’s, they really have made an exceptional effort (at the sacrifice of almost everything else) to make a self sufficient military industrial complex - from A-Z.

They made the best of things. Cut their deals with who they needed to in order to get things done. Many in the Western sphere had known direct and indirectly of these happenings with a few involved to their own successes. The US is not innocent in these dealings. With cheap banned oil mixed with with legitimate oil being refined on the US East Coast then shipped to Europe.

Hopefully the adults will sit down soon and figure this one out before it gets worse.

 

[YZT580]

Sad to say America makes a habit of underestimating. Think of the way that Japan's capabilities were thought of in 1940 and even our own approach to Germany in WW1. Wasn't the common saying in 1914: "the troops will be home by Christmas"

 

[Altair]

Sad to say America makes a habit of underestimating. Think of the way that Japan's capabilities were thought of in 1940 and even our own approach to Germany in WW1. Wasn't the common saying in 1914: "the troops will be home by Christmas"

Edit:Misread.

 

[Maxman1]

America didn't join intil 1917 so it wasn't them saying it.

our own approach to Germany in WW1

 

[Altair]

@Maxman1

Ah.

I'll edit