Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

Hostage taking works up to the point when the hostages aren’t worth as much as getting rid of the hostage takers(s).

Considering nobody is taking out the hostage takers and are rumored to be paying the hostage takers hundreds of billions, I'm going to say that hasn't happened.

As could have been predicted since february.

This was a giant waste of everyones time and wallets.

 

[Good2Golf]

This was a giant waste of everyones time

Well, not everyone’s time.

The IAEA inspectors don’t have to worry about going back to Iran like they had to under Obama’s oppressive regime.

Trump’s a trusting fellow, so no inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities is required. He trusts the Iranian’s to keep their word that they won’t enrich more than the…checks math, 440 - 300 =140…140kg more than what Obama-pression *restricted Iran to back in 2015.

 

[Altair]

Well, not everyone’s time.

The IAEA inspectors don’t have to worry about going back to Iran like they had to under Obama’s oppressive regime.

Trump’s a trusting fellow, so no inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities is required. He trusts the Iranian’s to keep their word that they won’t enrich more than the…checks math, 440 - 300 =140…140kg more than what Obama-pression allowed back in 2015.

I cannot wait for those who said Obama was too soft on Iran to spin this into a resounding victory.

 

[Infanteer]

So much winning.

Sad, because the real losers will be the Iranian people, Lebanese civilians, and the average taxpayer.

The Art of the Non-Deal

With this ceasefire, Trump has capitulated to Iran.

www.persuasion.community

 

[Cloud Cover]

Run to the gas station. This won’t last long.

 

[FJAG]

Gas went down a penny here. Big whoop.

Seems the gas stations don't believe Trump either.

 

[KevinB]

Gas has been erratic here.

From 4.25 to 5.78 in the space on 8 miles for a Gallon of Premium.

 

[HavokFour]

It seems possibly Kharg may have been under serious consideration.

82nd Airborne Deployment to Israel Went Unannounced

A leaked deployment order shows that troops went to Israel, a detail omitted from Pentagon announcements about a CENTCOM deployment.

www.military.com

 

[brihard]

It seems possibly Kharg may have been under serious consideration.

82nd Airborne Deployment to Israel Went Unannounced

A leaked deployment order shows that troops went to Israel, a detail omitted from Pentagon announcements about a CENTCOM deployment.

www.military.com

I wonder if the increasing number of Hezbollah drone videos out of Israel in the pst month adjusted thinking on that?

 

[Cloud Cover]

Gas went down a penny here. Big whoop.

Seems the gas stations don't believe Trump either.

Was briefly $1.37 here today at the Co-op.

 

[daftandbarmy]

It ain't open 'til it's open...

Forty Days Before the First Barrel Moves​

Five Western maritime security sources, cited by STL.News and investingLive on June 15, estimated that mine clearance operations would take 40 to 50 days before commercial confidence returned. A Kpler Middle East analyst offered a “more conservative” assessment — six months for a comprehensive sweep. Both estimates assume cooperative conditions. The sources did not define what cooperative conditions would look like, because no precedent exists for the mining state conducting its own clearance under a bilateral agreement with the state that bombed it.

The Pentagon’s classified estimate, shared with the House Armed Services Committee in April, projected up to six months with three dedicated vessels already in the region. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell publicly denied the figure, calling it “dishonest journalism” based on “cherry-picked” information from a closed-door briefing. The denial did not include an alternative timeline. No US official has offered a public estimate for when commercial shipping can safely resume.

Hormuz Mine Clearance Will Take Months After Iran Deal

Hormuz mine clearance will take 40 days to 6 months, leaving Saudi Arabia's 5.5M bpd exports stranded. At $83/bbl vs $108 breakeven, the daily cost is $194M.

houseofsaud.com

 

[FJAG]

Gas has been erratic here.

From 4.25 to 5.78 in the space on 8 miles for a Gallon of Premium.

Interesting comparison. We're paying CAD 1.63 per litre which equates to USD 4.41 per US gallon. The worst we had here was CAD 1.75.

 

[RangerRay]

Jesus, this makes the JCPOA look tough and effective.

I’m all in favour of liberating Iran, but leadership matters.

 

[brihard]

It ain't open 'til it's open...

Forty Days Before the First Barrel Moves​

Five Western maritime security sources, cited by STL.News and investingLive on June 15, estimated that mine clearance operations would take 40 to 50 days before commercial confidence returned. A Kpler Middle East analyst offered a “more conservative” assessment — six months for a comprehensive sweep. Both estimates assume cooperative conditions. The sources did not define what cooperative conditions would look like, because no precedent exists for the mining state conducting its own clearance under a bilateral agreement with the state that bombed it.

The Pentagon’s classified estimate, shared with the House Armed Services Committee in April, projected up to six months with three dedicated vessels already in the region. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell publicly denied the figure, calling it “dishonest journalism” based on “cherry-picked” information from a closed-door briefing. The denial did not include an alternative timeline. No US official has offered a public estimate for when commercial shipping can safely resume.

Hormuz Mine Clearance Will Take Months After Iran Deal

Hormuz mine clearance will take 40 days to 6 months, leaving Saudi Arabia's 5.5M bpd exports stranded. At $83/bbl vs $108 breakeven, the daily cost is $194M.

houseofsaud.com

Barrels have been moving and will continue to. Smaller local tankers will more willingly chance it and will bring oil out 50 or 100k barrels at a time, then ship to ship transfer it onto oceangoing tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The hose will still be badly linked for a while but it’s not completely blocked.

 

[HavokFour]

Trump's comments at the G7 further revealing the souring relations between the US and Israel.

Trump says Netanyahu "has to be more responsible" with Lebanon, recent Israeli attack there was "too much"

President Trump, who is in France for the G7 summit, said he didn't like that Israel attacked Lebanon two hours before the U.S. signed an agreement with Iran.

www.cbsnews.com

Israel's Channel 12 is also reporting that the country has been denied access to the text of the US-Iran MOU.

Israel Asked to See the MoU. America Refused - JFeed

Israeli officials formally requested access to the complete text of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) but were refused by t - JFeed Israel News

www.jfeed.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This video breaks down how crappy a deal this is. There is a comment that I think sums it up:

The British Empire died in Suez, The American empire dies in Hormuz

 

[Altair]

This video breaks down how crappy a deal this is. There is a comment that I think sums it up:

The British Empire died in Suez, The American empire dies in Hormuz

For those who don't want to watch the entire video, although, full disclosure, I love his channel.

AI ASSISTED This video provides an analysis of a leaked Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the ongoing war. The creator argues that the agreement significantly favors Iran and puts the United States in a weaker negotiating position compared to before the conflict began (0:00-0:38).

Key takeaways from the leaked document include:

• Nuclear Program: The deal defers the issue of Iran's nuclear program to future discussions, maintaining the status quo in the interim, whereas pre-war demands sought the dismantlement of nuclear facilities and the transfer of enriched uranium (1:36-2:52).
• Sanctions Relief: The United States appears to have committed to a full lifting of both UN and US sanctions, including immediate waivers for oil exports, effectively conceding a primary tool used to influence Iranian behavior (3:02-4:13).
• Economic Incentives: The agreement includes a $300 billion reinvestment fund for Iran's reconstruction—a major shift from previous Iranian offers to provide economic incentives to the US (5:50-6:51).
• Regional Security: The MOU addresses the Strait of Hormuz, requiring the US to lift its naval blockade and Iran to resume normal traffic within 30 days (6:56-8:16).
• Ceasefire: The document calls for an immediate, permanent end to hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon (implying Hezbollah's involvement), though reports suggest Israel does not view itself as a party to this agreement (8:18-9:26).

The creator concludes that the US appears to have gained very little from its pre-war objectives, noting that the nuclear issue, ballistic missile program, and proxy networks remain largely unaddressed (4:25-5:47)

 

[PrairieFella]

Just in time for open on Monday, however no chance of pens touching paper until Friday.

Iran War Live Updates: Trump Announces U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Agreement

www.nytimes.com

And it'll be interesting to see where this is going to go.

Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran

In a call to The New York Times, President Trump praised Russia and China’s leaders and described Israel’s prime minister as “a very difficult guy.”

www.nytimes.com

EDIT: Per Iranian media (Mehr News), this is what the MOU draft looks like.

So uhhhh...the Iranians won?

 

[dapaterson]

So uhhhh...the Iranians won?

No, Gavin Newson's ex-wife's ex-boyfriend's father lost.

 

[Altair]

So uhhhh...the Iranians won?

They are either the same or ahead of where they were before the war.

They even traded in the older Khomeini for a younger one.