Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Altair]

This part makes the rest of your post irrelevant...

Iran has one trick, and it's not actually that great of a trick. They can sink some ships, some of the time. Eventually, economics makes ships and sailors disposable enough to start to ignore their trick.

We aren't there yet, bet let's not pretend Iran can keep playing it's game forever. China will never hit a number of dead Indian or Philippino sailors high enough to make them care about the human cost of defying Iran. They will pump money in to solve their problem, and there will always be someone desperate enough to risk it.

I agree, some riverboat gambler will take the risk.

But the SoH was handling 100+ ships per day. I don't see that happening with Iran doing their best to keep the SoH closed.

As for someone doing something about it, what in the world could someone do that the US navy had been unable or unwilling to do?

Trump bowed down to global oil pressure before, he likely will again in a week or less. That's far more likely than some coalition of the desperate trying to risk it all deciding they could do what the US navy could not

 

[Furniture]

I agree, some riverboat gambler will take the risk.

But the SoH was handling 100+ ships per day. I don't see that happening with Iran doing their best to keep the SoH closed.

As for someone doing something about it, what in the world could someone do that the US navy had been unable or unwilling to do?

Trump bowed down to global oil pressure before, he likely will again in a week or less. That's far more likely than some coalition of the desperate trying to risk it all deciding they could do what the US navy could not

You keep looking at this as an "all or nothing", but the world doesn't work that way.

Iran can threaten shipping, America can waffle, and the rest of the world can accept a greater risk to shipping. All three can happen to various degrees at the same time.

Iran needs an end to the game as much as America. As it turns out, America is less vulnerable to Iran's games than some of you predicted, and the rest of the world when desperate enough will act. How they act remains to be seen, but it's more likely they turn on Iran than the world's sole superpower with global reach.

 

[Altair]

You keep looking at this as an "all or nothing", but the world doesn't work that way.

Looking at the last 6 months of this nonsense and that's exactly how the world has worked.

Iran can threaten shipping, America can waffle, and the rest of the world can accept a greater risk to shipping. All three can happen to various degrees at the same time.

You're right, but the fact remains, the globe needs 100+ ships passing through the SoH per day. That's not going to happen with Iran lobbing drones and missiles.

Iran needs an end to the game as much as America. As it turns out, America is less vulnerable to Iran's games than some of you predicted,

They are drawing down their strategic petroleum reserve at a alarming rate trying to keep prices down. They physically cannot do that much longer. They are quite vulnerable to Iran's games. They started this with 425m barrels, they are around 300m now. They physically cannot go below 160m. Tick tock.

and the rest of the world when desperate enough will act.

I have yet to see a single example of this. Not a one. Nobody is going to try to do Americas job for them, especially because it's not their war.

How they act remains to be seen, but it's more likely they turn on Iran than the world's sole superpower with global reach.

They can turn on Iran all they like, unless they can get 100+ ships moving through the SoH nothing will come of it.

What you're going to have is Trumps phone ringing off the hook yelling at him to stop.