Iran Super Thread- Merged

[PrairieFella]

This is why historically maritime empires controlled important straits...

The world depends on maritime shipping to function. Eventually, they will tire of this foolishness and sort it out. We arent necessarily there yet, but it can't go on forever.

Thats going to be a tough nut to crack. With how casualty averse modern countries are I dont know how this is resolved beyond paying off the extortion toll fees.

 

[Altair]

Thats going to be a tough nut to crack. With how casualty averse modern countries are I dont know how this is resolved beyond paying off the extortion toll fees.

Gas is going to 200 a barrel and the global economy is about to get a body blow of historic proportions.

 

[Furniture]

We are watching a empire collapse in real time.

True, but that doesnt mean the rest of the western world will accept falling with them.

Thats going to be a tough nut to crack. With how casualty averse modern countries are I dont know how this is resolved beyond paying off the extortion toll fees.

They are casulty averse when the lights are on, and they have their food and distractions. How will they feel when that is no longer the case? How long will China tolerate not being able to sell the world their toys?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Thats going to be a tough nut to crack. With how casualty averse modern countries are I dont know how this is resolved beyond paying off the extortion toll fees.

That worked so well for the young US and the Barbary pirates.

 

[Altair]

True, but that doesnt mean the rest of the western world will accept falling with them.

So the western world, which mostly blames Trump for this war, who is casualty adverse, is going to send troops to die to fix a problem caused by Trump?

Because Canadians, French, Germans, Italians, whatever, coming home in body bags will help these democracies? You're nuts. That's the fastest way to have those leaders kicked out of office.

They are casulty averse when the lights are on, and they have their food and distractions. How will they feel when that is no longer the case? How long will China tolerate not being able to sell the world their toys?

China has been moving towards more coal and more electric, their fuel reserves have not fallen nearly as fast as the in the west, America, or the rest of Asia. The country that is laughing the most right now....is China.

 

[HavokFour]

Houthis are declaring the Bab-Al Mandab Strait is now closed. If they can enforce it...holy shit oil is going to the moon.

As of posting (futures) WTI up 8.88% and Brent up 9% today.

And still rising.

 

[HavokFour]

And like clockwork, Trump will be making a speech Thursday night at 9PM.

 

[PrairieFella]

That worked so well for the young US and the Barbary pirates.

If you think there is any similarity in martial cultures of countries between the late 18th century and the 21st century, I have an oil depot on Kharg Island to sell you.

 

[PrairieFella]

They are casulty averse when the lights are on, and they have their food and distractions. How will they feel when that is no longer the case? How long will China tolerate not being able to sell the world their toys?

Or - it spurs countries into viewing the Green Transition as a national security proposition and not an environmental one. This is America and Israel's mess, they can fix it. In the meantime I suspect planners across the devrloped world are looking to build plenty of wind and solar farms while importing petroleum products from wherever they can get it. Canada, US, Venezuela, unfortunately - Russia.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Or - it spurs countries into viewing the Green Transition as a national security proposition and not an environmental one. This is America and Israel's mess, they can fix it. In the meantime I suspect planners across the devrloped world are looking to build plenty of wind and solar farms while importing petroleum products from wherever they can get it. Canada, US, Venezuela, unfortunately - Russia.

Russia isn’t exporting these days, lots of unfortunate accidents at a bunch of their refineries.

 

[KevinB]

Or - it spurs countries into viewing the Green Transition as a national security proposition and not an environmental one. This is America and Israel's mess, they can fix it. In the meantime I suspect planners across the devrloped world are looking to build plenty of wind and solar farms while importing petroleum products from wherever they can get it. Canada, US, Venezuela, unfortunately - Russia.

Except the countries best isolated from the oil price hits are the US and Israel.
I’d suggest both leaders have their own reasons for keeping it going right now.

 

[PrairieFella]

Except the countries best isolated from the oil price hits are the US and Israel.
I’d suggest both leaders have their own reasons for keeping it going right now.

Id say thats a false premise. Its a global commodity. That doesnt change because the US fracks the shit outta the heartland (which is a problem that will come due one day). No one is safe. Its folly not to use this as an example of whats to come as American hefemony collapses. When it comes to hydro, solar/wind, nukes, geothermal, etc build baby build.

 

[Altair]

Id say thats a false premise. Its a global commodity. That doesnt change because the US fracks the shit outta the heartland (which is a problem that will come due one day). No one is safe. Its folly not to use this as an example of whats to come as American hefemony collapses. When it comes to hydro, solar/wind, nukes, geothermal, etc build baby build.

The USA could deny export permits, but then they would need to retool their refineries to handle light sweet while watching the shale sector collapse upon itself.

Great choices for America going forward. Trump himself said the global oil market had 4 weeks of oil left, and the global oil reserves haven't had time to recover.

If this drags on, things are going to get real ugly.

 

[KevinB]

Id say thats a false premise. Its a global commodity.

It is, but for Israel it really isn’t.
Down here it is buttressed by the SOR.

So there is a cushioning affect in the two countries that threw the rocks into the pool of tranquility.

That doesnt change because the US fracks the shit outta the heartland (which is a problem that will come due one day).

We have a heck of a lot larger environmental issues beyond that.

No one is safe. Its folly not to use this as an example of whats to come as American hefemony collapses.

When it comes to hydro, solar/wind, nukes, geothermal, etc build baby build.

100%

Certain things need to be run on petroleum products at this point, but a lot of energy needs should have been transferred to nuclear for decades.

The USA could deny export permits, but then they would need to retool their refineries to handle light sweet while watching the shale sector collapse upon itself.

Or opt for Carter like fuel rationing.

Great choices for America going forward. Trump himself said the global oil market had 4 weeks of oil left, and the global oil reserves haven't had time to recover.

If this drags on, things are going to get real ugly.

One wonders if that is just what is being counted on…

When things are desperate, lots of previously unpalatable options become tasty…

 

[brihard]

It is, but for Israel it really isn’t.
Down here it is buttressed by the SOR.

So there is a cushioning affect in the two countries that threw the rocks into the pool of tranquility.


We have a heck of a lot larger environmental issues beyond that.




100%

Certain things need to be run on petroleum products at this point, but a lot of energy needs should have been transferred to nuclear for decades.



Or opt for Carter like fuel rationing.


One wonders if that is just what is being counted on…

When things are desperate, lots of previously unpalatable options become tasty…

The SPR, once you account for the volume that has to stay put to protect the structural integrity of the caves, has already been drawn down significantly. The U.S. is between two and three months from drawing down to the statutory minimum levels beyond which the President must basically issue an emergency authorization. While the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, SPR drawdowns allow them to keep consumer prices tolerable.

Renewed supply pressure and crude oil price spikes could accelerate this drawdown. It could become politically problematic by early to mid fall. That’s not ideal timing.

 

[Altair]

It is, but for Israel it really isn’t.
Down here it is buttressed by the SOR.

The USA doesn't have a lot of room to work with here. The SOR/SPR cannot drop below 160m barrels, or the salt caverns collapse. It's currently at 300m. It was 425m in February.

So don't fool yourself, America is also on the clock here.

Or opt for Carter like fuel rationing.

Oh yes. Please, do it. Cannot wait for the response to that one by the American public.

One wonders if that is just what is being counted on…

When things are desperate, lots of previously unpalatable options become tasty…

Your fantasy of people joining the soup sandwich that is the American war versus Iran has no basis in reality, no evidence in practice, zero signs globally, and exists up there with the Ironman and Captain America jumping in and physically opening the SoH themselves.

The world will suffer. Governments will suffer. People will die and starve. And no nation is going to want to add fuel to their domestic tire fire by adding dead soldiers to everything else Trump has decided to burden them with.

Globally, a lot of tough decisions will be made, ZERO of those choices will be joining Trumps Crusade of the throwing shit at the wall.

 

[KevinB]

The SPR, once you account for the volume that has to stay put to protect the structural integrity of the caves, has already been drawn down significantly. The U.S. is between two and three months from drawing down to the statutory minimum levels beyond which the President must basically issue an emergency authorization. While the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, SPR drawdowns allow them to keep consumer prices tolerable.

Renewed supply pressure and crude oil price spikes could accelerate this drawdown. It could become politically problematic by early to mid fall. That’s not ideal timing.

Oh fully agree.

My point is that no one is safe.
America and Israel have a modest cushion above others before things grind to a stop.

The USA doesn't have a lot of room to work with here. The SOR/SPR cannot drop below 160m barrels, or the salt caverns collapse. It's currently at 300m. It was 425m in February.

They can be flooded with seawater - I have zero idea on what that does long term though.

So don't fool yourself, America is also on the clock here.

Everyone is.

Oh yes. Please, do it. Cannot wait for the response to that one by the American public.

At the end of the day the current situation isn’t sustainable.

Your fantasy of people joining the soup sandwich that is the American war versus Iran has no basis in reality, no evidence in practice, zero signs globally, and exists up there with the Ironman and Captain America jumping in and physically opening the SoH themselves.

It isn’t fascination.
Regardless of calling it Americas war or not as you have mentioned it is a global issue.

At a point the west will act out of necessity.

The world will suffer. Governments will suffer. People will die and starve. And no nation is going to want to add fuel to their domestic tire fire by adding dead soldiers to everything else Trump has decided to burden them with.

History has shown that outlook to be wrong time and time again.

Globally, a lot of tough decisions will be made, ZERO of those choices will be joining Trumps Crusade of the throwing shit at the wall.

Where did I say anything about Trumps crusade.



Iran is very well aware that there is a fine line of how it can push the West and the Gulf States before it becomes worthwhile to act with a very heavy hand.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Trump is about to occupy VZ, that’s what I believe will be announced on Thursday.
They’ll ‘fund’ the reconstruction efforts in return for the oil and they’ll ship it to Europe/Asia for a fee.

 

[Altair]

Oh fully agree.

My point is that no one is safe.
America and Israel have a modest cushion above others before things grind to a stop.

The nation with the biggest reserve is China.

At this point, the question is why does everything America does with Iran benefit China?

They can be flooded with seawater - I have zero idea on what that does long term though.

You pump too much seawater, and you desolve the salt caverns. That's why the physical floor is 160m barrels. Collapse the salt caverns, and not only do you not have salt caverns, you lose access to the oil. But by all means, collapse it in order to try to fight Iran. It's on point for this administration.

Everyone is.

Sure, but everyone is going to point at Trump as the reason for this crisis. Who is Trump going to point to?

At the end of the day the current situation isn’t sustainable.

It's not, I agree. But seeing as it's the US conflict leading to this, the global outrage is going to be directed at washington.

It isn’t fascination.
Regardless of calling it Americas war or not as you have mentioned it is a global issue.

Read above.

At a point the west will act out of necessity.

Absolutely not.

No sane leader looks at this, and decides "You know what will be popular? Adding dead soldiers to this problem. Yes, that will get me and my party reelected"

The amount of land anyone would need to invade to secure the SoH is up for debate, what isn't up for debate is that the amount of body bags coming home from drone strikes to the face will be more painful than any oil related economic shock. And in all likelyhood, in addition to oil related economic shocks, as any invasion of Iran isn't guaranteed to open the SoH.

History has shown that outlook to be wrong time and time again.



Where did I say anything about Trumps crusade.

Trump calling for nations to help with the SoH, not that the USA needs help, but it would be nice to offer, to assist...America helps everyone else, with Russia, and people don't help the USA...

Trumps own words make any sign to deal militarily with Iran as joining the Crusade. And what nation is going to enter that area of operations without coordinating with CENTCOM?

Never going to happen.

Iran is very well aware that there is a fine line of how it can push the West and the Gulf States before it becomes worthwhile to act with a very heavy hand.

Yeah, no. Absolute delusional fantasy.

 

[Good2Golf]

When it comes to hydro, solar/wind, nukes, geothermal, etc build baby build.

Down here it is buttressed by the SOR.

It’s you mean SPR, current estimates are less than 100-120MBBL usable remaining of the sour oil, which at the current drawdown rate of 35-40MBBL/month gives just 2-3 months left until the U.S. diesel and kerosene production is drastically impacted.

U.S. SPR currently sits at ~316MBBL, but interesting breakdown is 116MBBL sweet oil (WTI) and 200MBBL sour oil (mostly WCS). Sour WCS is where America gets its diesel and kerosene, so the levels are worse that the cheery faces in DC are making it out to be.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory 2005

Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reports that the 172MBBL drawdown authorized by Trump shortly after the war with Iran started, is drastically impacting the reserve’s condition, and that drawdown and refill (once/if that happens) rates are notably impacted by degraded condition of the SPR’s pumping infrastructure.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/frequent-oil-draws-from-u-s-strategic-reserve-push-old-system-to-breaking-point-7fb8c421

I don’t think the gravity of the U.S. SPR’s condition and continued drawdown is fully appreciated…yet.

Adding to the power drama is the 1.2GW transmission line from Quebec to NYC that supplies 20% of NYC’s power is out of service until Friday due to a line problem on the NY side of the border.

Major power line for New York City trips offline for second time in July

A $6 billion transmission line designed to deliver Canadian hydropower to New York City shut down for a second time this month, disrupting a flagship clean-energy project meant to ‌reduce the city's reliance on dirty fossil fuel generators.

www.reuters.com

On the plus side for America, AI and data centers will likely stay powered through the drama and be able yo provide insight to how America. A become more energy secure.