Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Eaglelord17]

Iran has 93 million people.
If your taking about occupying any significant portion of the country, I would argue that the US could not do this effectively without: 1) a significant call up of its reserves, over a long period of time, 2) Numerous Allies providing substantial numbers as well.
I don’t see either of these options occurring.

I don’t either. However I didn’t have the US launching a war on Iran on my bingo card this year either.

They definitely lack the will to absorb and accept the casualties such a ground war would mean.

100% agree. However the US could unleash much more than they have. Choosing not to use certain capabilities is very different from being unable to.

My point was more about why criticizing physical fitness is a dumb thing especially from a military standpoint.

 

[KevinB]

Thats a bit of a confirmation bias. Most of that population were exiles from the days of the Shah - of course theyre anti-regime.

I suspect it is like a lot of places:

20% of the population hate the regime.
20% of the population are the regime/are invested in the regime.
60% of the population keep their heads down and just want to be left alone…

I hate it when @Altair and I converge on the Venn Diagram

But I would suggest that his point earlier

They hate getting gunned down en masse slightly more

Is the key to all of this.

Very very few folks are pro regime at this point -- but as so many others here have pointed out - the vast majority of the leaders of any sort of rebellion got massacred months ago.

The US Military and Israeli’s hitting infrastructure probably isn’t endearing many Iranians to the idea of other throwing the regime.

As DAB points out there is need for some insurgency infrastructure

 

[PPCLI Guy]

We Oppress Liberals?

 

[daftandbarmy]

I don’t either. However I didn’t have the US launching a war on Iran on my bingo card this year either.

100% agree. However the US could unleash much more than they have. Choosing not to use certain capabilities is very different from being unable to.

My point was more about why criticizing physical fitness is a dumb thing especially from a military standpoint.

Because 'Tall Poppy' policy is our bread and butter (and Cheez Whiz)

 

[dapaterson]

We Oppress Liberals?

 

[Czech_pivo]

20% of the population in the Northshore is Iranian and they have relatives that live there and communicating with all the time.

If their relatives back in Iran are actually saying that on open telephone communications, they are either very bold and are living on borrowed time or the regime is not monitoring all communications with expats, which I’d find quite surprising.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If their relatives back in Iran are actually saying that on open telephone communications, they are either very bold and are living on borrowed time or the regime is not monitoring all communications with expats, which I’d find quite surprising.

This has been going on since 1979, learning to communicate things without openly saying them becomes a bit of a art form.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Thats a bit of a confirmation bias. Most of that population were exiles from the days of the Shah - of course theyre anti-regime.

That absolutely was the case in 1979 till 1990's, with continued immigration mainly for economic reasons, that factor became less and less relevant. there is a small generally quiet pro-regime element. The AI answer below, matches with the changes I saw within the Northshore.

AI answered my question " Iranian immigration to canada by year starting 1979" with this:


Iranian immigration to Canada surged immediately following the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Driven by political, religious, and economic shifts, the diaspora grew from a few thousand to over 280,000. You can access exact annual arrival figures and demographic profiles directly through Statistics Canada or the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) open data portal. [1, 2, 3, 5]
The influx of Iranian immigrants occurred in distinct waves, heavily tracked in various Statistics Canada datasets: [1, 2]

• • 1980s (The First Wave): Following the 1979 Revolution and the onset of the Iran-Iraq War, a massive migration of highly educated professionals, academics, and former supporters of the monarchy occurred. By the mid-1980s, the Iranian-Canadian population numbered around 5,000. [1, 2]
  • 1990s (Rapid Expansion): Immigration swelled to thousands per year. The number of Iranians in Canada reached roughly 60,000 by the mid-1990s as political and economic conditions in Iran pushed more skilled workers and family-class immigrants abroad. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • 2000–2010s (Consistent Growth): Canada became a primary destination. Between 2011 and 2016 alone, IRCC accepted over 42,000 Iranian immigrants. The 2016 Census recorded 170,755 people of Iranian origin. [1, 2, 3]
  • 2021 to Present: According to recent Statistics Canada 2021 Census data, the community represents a massive demographic, with over 280,000 Canadians identifying as having Iranian or Persian heritage. In 2024, Canada also implemented special temporary public policies facilitating open work permits and priority processing for eligible Iranian nationals already in Canada

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I’m surprised it took them this long to get into it.

My understanding is that the majority of Iraqi Shiites grew tired of Iranians telling them what to do. They don't like the Americans and they don't like the Iranians much either. While the US might become the primary target, they are not likely to go all out on behalf of the IRGC.

 

[GR66]

Ironically, even in the face of a major oil shock demand (and prices) for the Gulf oil that made it out during the ceasefire is actually down.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/21/business/oil-demand-iran-china

The world has adapted to the supply shock during five months of war, learning how to cope without using as much oil as it had before the conflict. Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil finally escaped the Strait of Hormuz last month, only to find few willing buyers. Some Middle Eastern crude had to be heavily discounted before it found any takers.

The reasons why the world is turning up its nose at oil are complex.

The solution is far more complicated.
In the three brief weeks that the Strait of Hormuz (mostly) reopened, something unexpected happened: More than 200 million barrels of oil locked inside the Persian Gulf quickly flooded out, but buyers just kind of shrugged their shoulders.

Qatar Energy and the United Arab Emirates’ Adnoc were forced to discount their oil by between $6 and $9 a barrel before finding Southeast Asian buyers, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, which tracks maritime traffic and oil flows.

More than 18 million barrels of non-Iranian oil that left the Strait of Hormuz currently remain on tankers outside the Persian Gulf awaiting a buyer — more than 2.5 times pre-war levels, Falakshahi said.

Iran has had even less luck selling oil than its neighbors. Iran got 70 million barrels of oil out of the strait in the weeks following its memorandum of understanding with the United States. Despite a temporary sanctions waiver from the United States, China was the only buyer willing to bite.

So Iran sent all of that oil toward China, by far its biggest customer before and during the war. But China wasn’t all that interested: It dramatically reduced its purchases of Iranian oil last month — from around 1.5 million barrels per day to 630,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler.

Overall, global oil demand stubbornly remains about 4 million barrels a day lower now than at the start of the war, according to JPMorgan.

To a large degree, demand has slumped because there’s nowhere to put the oil to good use. Refineries are maxed out, especially after Iran attacked 30 Middle Eastern refineries during the course of the war.

 

[Altair]

Ironically, even in the face of a major oil shock demand (and prices) for the Gulf oil that made it out during the ceasefire is actually down.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/21/business/oil-demand-iran-china

Small note. Europe did not drop the sanctions on Iran.

France decided the USA was surrendering too hard and kept the sanctions in place.

So Irans customers would have been limited to whoever it was before, largely China.

 

[brihard]

Ironically, even in the face of a major oil shock demand (and prices) for the Gulf oil that made it out during the ceasefire is actually down.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/21/business/oil-demand-iran-china

There’s likely been some short to midterm demand destruction accounting for some of it. And, as Altair correctly points out, anyone dealing in Iranian oil would face potential legal issues from everyone else.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Sounds like Andy Burnham is going to allow strikes from UK bases in and outside of Great Britain.

 

[Altair]

Sounds like Andy Burnham is going to allow strikes from UK bases in and outside of Great Britain.

Defensive operations only.


he wants to remain PM no doubt, this is the same policy Starmer had.