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Best Deal Ever! (For Iran that is) or until next week, when new Best Deal Ever is announced.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
- Start date
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ISR media is citing IRN opposition media saying IRN's Supreme Leader may not be around much longer.
iranwire.com
IRN oppo media also archived here.
More on the Canadian-Iranian founder of the oppo media in question:
en.wikipedia.org
Exclusive: Iranian Leaders are Concerned About Mojtaba Khamenei’s Worsening Health
Two sources close to the Pezeshkian administration have told IranWire that Mojtaba Khamenei has not met with any cabinet members since t ...
iranwire.com
More on the Canadian-Iranian founder of the oppo media in question:
Maziar Bahari - Wikipedia
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Might already be a remake of "Weekend at Bernies" It may be that the pretense of him being alive is unravelling.ISR media is citing IRN opposition media saying IRN's Supreme Leader may not be around much longer.
IRN oppo media also archived here.Exclusive: Iranian Leaders are Concerned About Mojtaba Khamenei’s Worsening Health
Two sources close to the Pezeshkian administration have told IranWire that Mojtaba Khamenei has not met with any cabinet members since t ...
More on the Canadian-Iranian founder of the oppo media in question:
Maziar Bahari - Wikipedia
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So it appears that the Houthi's have struck first. Multiple media sources are reporting that the Houthi's have carried out several missile attacks against pro-Saudi forces in Yemen. More from TWZ:
www.twz.com
Houthis Stage Large-Scale Attack On Saudi-Aligned Forces In Yemen
The strikes are yet another escalation in Houthi-Saudi hostilities roiling the Red Sea region.
www.twz.com
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Maybe Khamenie and McConnell are playing cards together somewhere?
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Maybe they believed what the U.S. was saying about bringing it to a quick end, so they thought the high consumption rate to keep things protected was worth the burn rate?
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I’m quite pleased they are all so close to sticks and stones.
FormerEnlisted
Full Member
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If the missiles can't be destroyed in the air, and the government can't guarantee the IRGC/Houthis will abide by an agreement, the only remaining option is to destroy the launchers on the ground.
Iran is walking an extremely fine line here. If they aren't able to cement an agreement before ground operations become necessary, they run a very real risk of forcing a ground invasion.
At present the general justification relates to local security issues and a rather ambiguous nuclear question. If the missile bombardments and blockades continue, the casus belli switches to the much easier argument of self defence.
Their proxy militias, and timely luck, helped them survive the first round. The same factors can reverse course just as easily.
In fact, Iran is in an extremely precarious strategic position.
1. They have already attacked most of their neighbours.
2. They have a new blood feud with the USA.
3. Their foreign supply relies on distant powers who have their own issues. Structural confinement for China, hemorrhagic blood loss for Russia.
4. Their technology base is not nearly diversified enough to survive an all out war.
5. Normalization of diplomatic relations relies on exercising strict authority over their proxies.
6. Demonstration of this authority provides undenial proof of an internal threat that justifies martial law and diplomatic isolation of Iran.
7. Failure to exercise this authority forces the conflict to evolve into a larger ground war they are certain to lose.
They may be on the verge of 'not losing' all the way to defeat.
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Going back to Saudi Arabia specifically. The Kingdom is just that, exactly. It’s a giant welfare state with an autocratic monarchy that safely remains in place as long as its people are generally well fed, mostly content and always safe from enemies. Take away one of those and trouble will start. So yes they are expending ammo stockpiles at a prodigious rate and they shoot off a lot more if they the stockpiles.
Even if Trump walks away from this war, the Saudis can’t if Iran continues to badger and harass them. That monarchy will not submit to the will of Iran.
Perhaps Ukraine really is the only country who can save them if Trump would only get out if the way if his own damned war.
Even if Trump walks away from this war, the Saudis can’t if Iran continues to badger and harass them. That monarchy will not submit to the will of Iran.
Perhaps Ukraine really is the only country who can save them if Trump would only get out if the way if his own damned war.
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They could but lets be real here.
Lets evaluate.
And most of them have not struck back.
They always have, since 79. More importantly they have shruged off the might of American air power so what is the USA left with?
Russia might be losing blood but as long as they can supply Iran with shaheds via the caspian, that doesn't matter. And China has a rail route, and whatever support they provide Iran is largely a rounding error for them
Except nobody has the appetite for such a war.
Which they might have
So...January 2026?
they can only lose a war if someone is willing to launch it. Appetite for that is clearly lacking.
That would run counter to everything we've seen since February.
PrairieFella
Army.ca Veteran
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Might be useful to some Machiavellians in November 2026 to do just that.
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Cleaned the politics crap out. Shame on those that took the bait but absolutely know better. You can quote a post and move that quote to the right area.
- Milnet.ca Staff
- Milnet.ca Staff
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
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Speaking of where this might all be headed. Caine is reportedly on the hunt for an exit out of this mess.
[CNN]Trump’s top general is ‘looking for an off-ramp’ from Iran war as US military options remain limited, sources say
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My guess is if they target KSA oil industry any further, then KSA is going to target it what is left of theirs. KSA can survive the economic hit for a few years while they build more pipelines to avoid both choke points. Iran cannot. What happens to Suez royalties will dictate Egypt's response.
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My guess.
USA is done with this, pulls back, pretends it didn't happen, Iran doesn't strike anything else, the Oman Iran strait deal goes into effect, and life goes on, except Iran is in a better financial situation going forward.
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Maxman1
Army.ca Veteran
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