Is the CPC about to split

[Remius]

Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?

Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?

What Underway said.

More Libertarian.

So feel free to read this interview he gave a Muslim group while he was running for leader.  It's a actually pretty good and a good outline of his policies.

https://www.canadianmuslimvote.ca/cpc_interview_series_maxime_bernier

There is a lot that Conservatives can get behind if his new party adopts some of these policies.

 

[Remius]

Big unknown. You can speculate based on their personality but I think it's best to wait for their platform. Which should be forthcoming shortly.

This could be the trigger for a snap election. Do it while the opposition is in disarray.

Possibly but I think a snap election is not in the Liberal's best interest now.  Best to let Bernier settle and establish his party to create as much vote splitting as possible.

But I bet we see a platform soonish, it practically already exists.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Possibly but I think a snap election is not in the Liberal's best interest now.  Best to let Bernier settle and establish his party to create as much vote splitting as possible.

But I bet we see a platform soonish, it practically already exists.

Meh, at this point, it's a wait and see for me. I'm sure I'll only be waiting a couple of days at most. Or possibly Monday because of the way the media reports weekends. I can wait.

I set no timeline for a snap election.

 

[QV]

More war gaming here.

Back in February, Bernier courted the 7 bloc members who resigned from that party to join the CPC.  If he manages to get them on board with his new party, he would only be 4 members short of official party status.  And he might already have a few people. 

Just musing here...

I would think he already lined up significant support.  Almost like a coup

I revise my previous assertion this will lead to a liberal government.  The more I think about it the more I think this is potentially a good move - if a large amount walk with him. 

 

[QV]

If you want to see where your political beliefs are, this chart is neat. 

http://nolan.jimeyer.org/nolan_example.php

 

[Brad Sallows]

Here is another (probably the first), and here are some notes by the author (Jerry Pournelle).  And a critical commentary on both.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.

People said the same about Doug Ford. The only poll or opinion that matters is on election day. I'm not ready to call anyone a shoe in until I see what's going on. It's just to early to speculate.

 

[brihard]

People said the same about Doug Ford. The only poll or opinion that matters is on election day. I'm not ready to call anyone a shoe in until I see what's going on. It's just to early to speculate.

Ford did not create a new party and thus split the vote; he was succesfully able to market himself to the provincial Conservative party at large, and do while while approaching an election that was already basically theirs to win. Bernier, conversely, is looking to hive off some as yet undetermined portion of the CPC into his own party in the early stages of the run up to a federal election that has considerable potential to be a tight one. If he splits the right vote to any significant degree, Trudeau takes it.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Bernier's good as long as his hairdresser hangs in there...

 

[Cloud Cover]

That dude is an ultra marathoner. I wonder if *Just do it* will be his campaign slogan.

 

[ballz]

It's fun to speculate but I don't think anyone can guess the impact that this will or will not have. We'll need good hindsight goggles to understand all this after the election results are in. I can imagine it going so many ways and have no way to weigh the likelihood of any occurrence.

We don't even know how many candidates Max will be able to run. They acknowledged in the media today that Max's following is a very energized / active following. He may run 338 candidates as his Atlantic campaign manager posted on FB today. If he can do that, he may take a serious dent out the CPC's share of votes, maybe win 10-30 seats or something and take second in a lot of ridings. We would look at that and say "His successful first attempt has split the right and now JT has walked into another majority, but now he has a lot of momentum and the party has a future."

I could also see this being a complete flop. Having him out could help the CPC remain focussed/united. The Liberals remain a crap train until the election. The results come in and the Liberals are reduced to a minority, or even a CPC minority occurs, and Max fails to run a fully or nearly full slate, gets 2% of the popular vote, and is never taken seriously again.

Or a myriad of other things in between. Edit to Add: I should say that I don't think there will be any MPs leaving the CPC to join Bernier until after the next election.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Another perchance/ perhaps. Maybe even if Trudeau slides up the middle, in will likely be a slim majority. Scheer and Bernier form a majority coalition, bring down the grits, take over and work out their differences that way.

There a couple more, but I don't want to derail things too bad.

 

[ballz]

Chantal Hebert last night talked about how history repeats itself and stated: "People forget that Preston Manning didn't prevent Brian Mulroney from winning a majority government in 1988." What she was referring to was in 1988 when the Reform Party didn't win a single seat and Mulroney won a majority. In the next election (1993) they had a major breakthrough taking 52 seats and the PCs were decimated. She's a wise analyst and has me questioning my own perspective stated earlier that if Max doesn't have a great showing in 2019 he's finished.

If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Chantal Hebert last night talked about how history repeats itself and stated: "People forget that Preston Manning didn't prevent Brian Mulroney from winning a majority government in 1988." What she was referring to was in 1988 when the Reform Party didn't win a single seat and Mulroney won a majority. In the next election (1993) they had a major breakthrough taking 52 seats and the PCs were decimated. She's a wise analyst and has me questioning my own perspective stated earlier that if Max doesn't have a great showing in 2019 he's finished.

If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.

Side track... I've seen Chantal in action during conferences etc and I'd vote for her as PM before any of those other ridiculous, mentally deficient show ponies  :nod:

 

[Journeyman]

If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.

Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.  Why are the Conservatives so insistent on catering to the extremes, essentially trying to out-Baptist the more knuckle-dragging American right.

There simply aren't enough Canadian voters holding views that far out there;  with Bernier splitting the right vote, with both apparently abandoning compromise and the more moderate, they're pretty much guaranteeing centrist voters will either go Liberal or simply throw up their hands and walk away, not voting at all.

 

[Brad Sallows]

This is a good test of Scheer's political mettle.  If he can hold the party together and prevent any significant amount of defections, he may have what it takes to win the next election.  If he can't, he should resign and the party should quickly find a leader who can knit things back together.

 

[FJAG]

Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.  Why are the Conservatives so insistent on catering to the extremes, essentially trying to out-Baptist the more knuckle-dragging American right.

There simply aren't enough Canadian voters holding views that far out there;  with Bernier splitting the right vote, with both apparently abandoning compromise and the more moderate, they're pretty much guaranteeing centrist voters will either go Liberal or simply throw up their hands and walk away, not voting at all.

I have the same fears based on what I've heard from the convention.

Approximately 77% of the public want abortion to be legal which IMHO means don't change the laws. Yet the CPC is allowing a motion for debate which would give the party the ability to enact abortion legislation. This is the thin edge of the wedge. Once you have that as a party platform then there will be a death by a thousand cuts as more and more -a la US style- legislative/regulatory restrictions will be brought forward and put into play.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3290006/support-for-abortion-rights-strong-in-canada-but-poll-shows-we-are-middle-of-the-pack-globally/

Scheer , luckily, seems to be steady on this issue and supports the current party position.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-abortion-conservative-convention-halifax-1.4799052

On the other hand the party wouldn't put the issue of supply management on the agenda when the majority of the public is in favor of putting the issue on the table during the NAFTA talks (in fairness a Dairy Industry's commissioned Ipso poll said otherwise)

http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2018/public-ahead-of-politicians-on-dismantling-supply-management/
https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/canadians-support-supply-management-771.aspx

It strikes me we have far too many delegates who, while bleating about public-opinions/democracy matter, only advocate on issues which are important to a minority group of one-issue advocates.

Don't abandon ship for a new group. Therein lies the road to constant defeat. Time for centrists to take back the party back from the fringe elements!

:cheers:

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't think as many Canadians are absolutists on the abortion issue either way. Show them a video of a late term abortion and their minds would change quickly. I suspect a sliding scale is what a reasoned debate would end up with. Some fetal rights in the last trimester, with some health caveats to protect mom as well. The hardcore on either side would walk away disappointed. I suspect this would apply to most things. Canadians for the most part wander near the centreline of politics, wandering a bit left and bit right at times. Step to far from that path and your support plummets. 

 

[ballz]

Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.

No kidding. Things they prioritized and therefore did have time to vote on... abortion, banning/limiting access to pornography, and birthright citizenship (should being born in Canada automatically grant you Canadian citizenship)... the last of which passed and Scheer's own COS has already said it would be a source of attack for opponents...no kidding.

 

[PuckChaser]

No kidding. Things they prioritized and therefore did have time to vote on... abortion, banning/limiting access to pornography, and birthright citizenship (should being born in Canada automatically grant you Canadian citizenship)... the last of which passed and Scheer's own COS has already said it would be a source of attack for opponents...no kidding.

What isn't being mentioned is that Scheer is not obligated to use anything in the policy documents as part of his campaign platform. They could have voted to secede Alberta from the rest of Canada and he gets a veto.