Is the CPC about to split
- Thread starter Remius
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It was notable to me at least, that the under 30 group seem to overwhelmingly favour ditching supply management, and really were exasperated with abortion, pornography and citizenship efforts. And, they seem to have a low-neutral taste for Scheer but at the same time are intrigued by Bernier.
ballz
Army.ca Veteran
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I know it's just a poll, but if he's got 13% of the popular vote among decided voters already, he's off to a pretty damn good start...
The write-up also says that another 3% are "likely" to vote for Bernier with 33% answering "would consider"... that's pretty massive for a guy who hasn't even registered a party yet.
https://mailchi.mp/abacusdata/abacus-data-poll-vote-intention-update-508045|
We may have finally reached the 10% tipping point in Canada with a face/leader to rally around.
Also of note... he takes 6% from CPC and 5% Libs/NDP.... so much for "splitting the right" or being an "extremist."
The write-up also says that another 3% are "likely" to vote for Bernier with 33% answering "would consider"... that's pretty massive for a guy who hasn't even registered a party yet.
https://mailchi.mp/abacusdata/abacus-data-poll-vote-intention-update-508045|
We may have finally reached the 10% tipping point in Canada with a face/leader to rally around.
Also of note... he takes 6% from CPC and 5% Libs/NDP.... so much for "splitting the right" or being an "extremist."
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As long as he clings to dismantling supply management, he'll never be popular in Quebec. His opposition will successfully sell it as an attack on Quebec in general, rather than what it really is - the breaking up of a cartel that adversely affects all Canadians. Combine this with some of his more libertarian positions that will be a tough sell in the west, and he's got quite an uphill battle.
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I think that one of the lessons that Max has taken on board is that, in contrast to earlier generations, it is easier to influence debate from the outside than the inside.
In the past the key to influence was to get inside the institutions of society, rise to the top and then start using the levers available.
The lessons of Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Brexit and the form of democracy derided as populism are that institutions are susceptible to external pressure in a way that they never were in the past.
Although,
There are no lack of historical examples of external influence
I could suggest the election of Justin Trudeau as an example. Along with the influence of Preston Manning and Stephen Harper on the debate over balanced books and national debt. Or TC Douglas on Health Insurance. Or the universal franchise....
Chartists, Luddites and Levellers. Covenanters and Huguenots. Presbyterians, Baptists, Congregationalists and Methodists. Dissenters and Non-Conformists.
In the past it took longer to organize an external movement. Even when the printing press and universal literacy spawned the early generation of dissenters.
Now a budget of a few thousand dollars makes it possible to pressure the institutions from the outside.
Britain is only one of 28 inside the EU. But it is one of 2 outside the EU.
Max is only one of 97 inside the CPC. But outside the CPC?
In the past the key to influence was to get inside the institutions of society, rise to the top and then start using the levers available.
The lessons of Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Brexit and the form of democracy derided as populism are that institutions are susceptible to external pressure in a way that they never were in the past.
Although,
There are no lack of historical examples of external influence
I could suggest the election of Justin Trudeau as an example. Along with the influence of Preston Manning and Stephen Harper on the debate over balanced books and national debt. Or TC Douglas on Health Insurance. Or the universal franchise....
Chartists, Luddites and Levellers. Covenanters and Huguenots. Presbyterians, Baptists, Congregationalists and Methodists. Dissenters and Non-Conformists.
In the past it took longer to organize an external movement. Even when the printing press and universal literacy spawned the early generation of dissenters.
Now a budget of a few thousand dollars makes it possible to pressure the institutions from the outside.
Britain is only one of 28 inside the EU. But it is one of 2 outside the EU.
Max is only one of 97 inside the CPC. But outside the CPC?
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It is hard to predict how this is going turn out. Max could canabalize the CPC from the inside out and collect disaffected Liberals, especially if JT has another bad few months.
Or he could fizzle. I think it all depends on how hungry for change the electorate is in a year.
Previous examples don't really work anymore, as Chris pointed out.
Or he could fizzle. I think it all depends on how hungry for change the electorate is in a year.
Previous examples don't really work anymore, as Chris pointed out.
So less than a month and it seems that Mad Max has a name for his party.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-peoples-party-canada-1.4823647
I also find it interesting the amount of money he's raised in such a short period of time...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-peoples-party-canada-1.4823647
I also find it interesting the amount of money he's raised in such a short period of time...
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Remius said:
Better headline might have read, "poor loser takes ball and goes home".
Bird_Gunner45 said:
Yes, and he seems to be bringing his friends and their toys with him.
This article in Le Devoir gives an update on Maxime Bernier.
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/538193/parti-progressiste-conservateur-bernier-debauche-six-presidents-d-association-au-quebec
It's in French so to summarise for some:
- Over 20,000 people have signed onto the party (Compared to the Conservatives 100,000)
- He's raised over 300, 000$ since his launch and predicts to be at 3.5 million over the course of the year.
- Organisers from 7 riding associations have jumped ship from Scheer's Conservatives
- Former MP Luc Harvey has indicated interest in running as a candidate.
So far he seems to have some momentum. And while I'm sure that the CPC is dismissing him publicly, they have to be worried about how this might affect the next election especially with their intention of making inroads into Quebec.
ballz
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Over $300k and that's without the benefit of those donations being eligible for the political tax credit. That, to me, stands out the most.
He's set the goal to stand up 338 EDAs by 31 Dec 18... that's ambitious as hell. If he can pull that off, it'll be one hell of a statement.
He's set the goal to stand up 338 EDAs by 31 Dec 18... that's ambitious as hell. If he can pull that off, it'll be one hell of a statement.
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If he could find a way to drain some the Labour votes from the NDP, that would be very interesting...
Digging this back up, Bernier's party seems to be having some birthing pains... He was scheduled to attend a rally at Parliament Hill today against the UN Global Compact For Migration, something he's been quite vocal about in the past little while. It looks like he wisely decided to no-show. At an event where he was to be one of the most anticipated speakers, the crowd that showed up rather inevitably consisted in large part of groups like La Meute and Storm Alliance. He's going to have to contend with the fact that at least one local university chapter of his party's support bases did attend alongside those groups.
He has some very serious headwinds coming into this next year... He has chosen to be prominent on some subjects that place him squarely alongside some groups that will utterly doom him politically if he is seen or perceived to be associated with them, even if only through lack of denunciation. He's going to need to come out with something strong if he's to try to maintain some credibility as a reasonably electable contender. He's also going to have to wrestle with the reality that this ammunition is equally potent both to the left wing who merely don't want to see him get any votes, and to CPC loyalists who don't want him splitting the right and who will use this to continue to further marginalize him and his party.
This is not looking good for Bernier. However pure his intentions, he runs the real risk of whatever he does being co-opted by some pretty radical fringe types who are more than happy to align with someone they see as potentially lending them some legitimacy.
He has some very serious headwinds coming into this next year... He has chosen to be prominent on some subjects that place him squarely alongside some groups that will utterly doom him politically if he is seen or perceived to be associated with them, even if only through lack of denunciation. He's going to need to come out with something strong if he's to try to maintain some credibility as a reasonably electable contender. He's also going to have to wrestle with the reality that this ammunition is equally potent both to the left wing who merely don't want to see him get any votes, and to CPC loyalists who don't want him splitting the right and who will use this to continue to further marginalize him and his party.
This is not looking good for Bernier. However pure his intentions, he runs the real risk of whatever he does being co-opted by some pretty radical fringe types who are more than happy to align with someone they see as potentially lending them some legitimacy.
Journeyman
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You mean a clear denunciation, like "very fine people, on both sides."Brihard said:
Journeyman
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Well, there was some initial outcry, but it receded quickly as sufficiently lowered expectations of Presidential decorum had been established.Brihard said:
ballz
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He's been walking a tightrope on this since it started but I was impressed by how the party organizers were able to organize while simultaneously keeping this stuff at bay. I don't think this event has any traction to be used against him as ammo, I can't even find anything on it in the news.
My fear is that of the 292 riding associations that are already set up (that's massive success in my opinion), there will be a few scoundrels who are yet to be uncovered. If those are picked up by the mainstream media and he's constantly on the defensive about how x,y,z character managed to get into his party and take on an official role, then the party will quickly be characterized in the minds of the average person.
EDIT: Corrected riding associations to an accurate number.
My fear is that of the 292 riding associations that are already set up (that's massive success in my opinion), there will be a few scoundrels who are yet to be uncovered. If those are picked up by the mainstream media and he's constantly on the defensive about how x,y,z character managed to get into his party and take on an official role, then the party will quickly be characterized in the minds of the average person.
EDIT: Corrected riding associations to an accurate number.
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I can't help but think of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and Ruprecht the monkey boy...
Anyone watching the goings on with the by election today?
I'm curious to see how the PPC will do.
Apparently the CPC and PPC candidates in Burnaby South have been going at it like cats and dogs the last few weeks.
Maybe a sign of things to come. I'll be curious to see what the PPC takes as voter percentage.
Also, James Seale, former CAF member is running in Outremont for the PPC in what is likely an uphill battle. But again, I will be interested to see if he can garner any conservative support.
I'm curious to see how the PPC will do.
Apparently the CPC and PPC candidates in Burnaby South have been going at it like cats and dogs the last few weeks.
Maybe a sign of things to come. I'll be curious to see what the PPC takes as voter percentage.
Also, James Seale, former CAF member is running in Outremont for the PPC in what is likely an uphill battle. But again, I will be interested to see if he can garner any conservative support.
