Is the CPC about to split

[brihard]

Anyone watching the goings on with the by election today?

I'm curious to see how the PPC will do.

Apparently the CPC and PPC candidates in Burnaby South have been going at it like cats and dogs the last few weeks.

Maybe a sign of things to come.  I'll be curious to see what the PPC takes as voter percentage.

Also, James Seale, former CAF member is running in Outremont for the PPC in what is likely an uphill battle. But again, I will be interested to see if he can garner any conservative support.

The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

They might drain off some dissatisfied NDPers and Libs along with some CPC types. There is a whole lot of people out there unhappy with the current parties.

 

[PuckChaser]

The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.

Completely concur. They're just about as relevant as the Green Party. A fringe party with a platform that only about 5% of Canadians can support, but even less vote for because they know its a throwaway vote. Canadians do not and will not ever support Libertarianism in large enough numbers to make any party like that electorally relevant.

 

[Kirkhill]

I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?

Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot. 

 

[Kat Stevens]

I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?



Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot.

Well, you needed to fit his whole head in.

 

[Remius]

I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?

Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot.

I doubt they can get many or any seats.  It’s acting as spoiler and vote splitting on the right for the CPC that is the more likely scenario. 

 

[Kirkhill]

Agreed on the vote splitting and seats.....

But...

That just demonstrates that there is an appetite for those types of policies.  It might be a minority appetite but an appetite none the less.

The better plan would be to continue to try and keep those votes onside (and Scheer may have let that moment pass).

 

[Loachman]

I doubt they can get many or any seats.

Neither did Reform, at first.

 

[The Bread Guy]

FYI, last night's by-election (initial) numbers via Elections Canada ...

 

[Remius]

Very low turn out, surprise surprise.

Not much to glean from this one about the electoral mood in the country.

All three went as predicted.

Max Bernier won't have much to use in this. 

Outremont was a failure and garnered fringe support only.
Burnaby did get 10% and seemed to erode the CPC vote but he also had a candidate with some name recognition so maybe not a good indicator. 10% would be a spoiler in the next election but I doubt that this will be consistent.

No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not

 

[Monsoon]

No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not

Both the Liberals and Bernier have a lot of to be concerned about in the by-election results, although the front-runners cut as expected in all three cases. For the Liberals, the early days of the SNC scandal has certainly taken it's toll: an increase of support since the last election on the island of Montreal in the Outremont race (as expected - that's SNC country), but a very much diminished second place polling in Burnaby South and York-Simcoe.

Likewise, Bernier wasn't able to break the low single digits in Montreal (no surprise), but more importantly in a very Conservative riding in suburban Ontario.

Of course by-elections don't mean very much by themselves, except in relation to what the various parties were trying to do: in Burnaby South, the Liberals and Conservatives were keeping their powder dry to prevent Singh from losing and being replaced by someone more effective as NDP leader. That left the field open for Bernier to try to make a demonstration of momentum and the best he could manage was 10%. Likewise, the Conservatives weren't trying at all in Outremont but still handily out-polled Bernier. And the Liberals very much wanted to be able to show support in a Conservative Ontario riding and came up short.

My read is that Bernier is a spent force expect as a spoiler in Quebec, the NDP has nowhere to go but up, the Conservatives are looking healthy, and the Liberals are stronger in Quebec but hurting everywhere else.

 

[Remius]

Both the Liberals and Bernier have a lot of to be concerned about in the by-election results, although the front-runners cut as expected in all three cases. For the Liberals, the early days of the SNC scandal has certainly taken it's toll: an increase of support since the last election on the island of Montreal in the Outremont race (as expected - that's SNC country), but a very much diminished second place polling in Burnaby South and York-Simcoe.

Likewise, Bernier wasn't able to break the low single digits in Montreal (no surprise), but more importantly in a very Conservative riding in suburban Ontario.

Of course by-elections don't mean very much by themselves, except in relation to what the various parties were trying to do: in Burnaby South, the Liberals and Conservatives were keeping their powder dry to prevent Singh from losing and being replaced by someone more effective as NDP leader. That left the field open for Bernier to try to make a demonstration of momentum and the best he could manage was 10%. Likewise, the Conservatives weren't trying at all in Outremont but still handily out-polled Bernier. And the Liberals very much wanted to be able to show support in a Conservative Ontario riding and came up short.

My read is that Bernier is a spent force expect as a spoiler in Quebec, the NDP has nowhere to go but up, the Conservatives are looking healthy, and the Liberals are stronger in Quebec but hurting everywhere else.

You and I must be looking at different info.

1) the conservatives are trying very hard to make inroads in Quebec.  they performed worse than the green party in Outremont and 7% of the vote over the PPC's 3.5% is hardly what I would call handily out polling them.

2) 10% vote share taken from the CPC in Burnaby is what left them in third place.  If Bernier manages 5-10% in all ridings next election the Liberals will come up the middle in key contested ridings where they hope to make gains.

3) Simcoe-York was a given.  CPC was going to win.

Mixed results offering no clear view.  the Liberals gained a seat, NDP lost one and CPC remained status quo. 

 

[ballz]

The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.

I don't know how much more "meaningfully off the starting blocks" they could already be? Is there any examples in Canadian history where a party started off this strong?

The Reform Party is obviously the measuring stick for the PPC. They were in a different era which lacked the kind of connectivity we have today, so comparisons are crap shoots at best. But, one year after they started they went into the 1988 election with only 72 candidates and only won 2% of the popular vote nationally. You could extrapolate that and say if they ran 295 candidates (a full slate at the time) they'd have taken 8%, but that'd be wrong as they had zero support in Quebec and many other places. In 1993, largely due to disappointment with the Mulroney PCs, they suddenly had a breakout winning 52 seats with only 18.7% of the popular vote.

Picture this...
2019. PPC pulls in 8-10% of the popular vote, only winning 1 or 2 seats. Andrew Scheer squeeks out a minority due to everyone being so sick of Justin Trudeau.

2020 - 2022 /2023. Liberals elect whoever as leader. Scheer continues trying to pander to different groups and has a hard time taking a principled conservative stance out of political pressure to stay in government. Conservatives across the country grow tired. They wanted in government to get Conservative policies and instead all they get is the same LibCon tripe, handouts to big corporations and deficit spending, etc. PPC, meanwhile, continues its principled message for 2-3 years. There's no more boogeyman left (Trudeau Jr) to rally against, as the CPC is in power and yet CPC voters are still disappointed.

2023. The CPC is defeated in the House. An election is called. Those tired of the CPC no longer feel like their only other option is Liberals, and there's no boogeyman for the CPC to use as a scapegoat, hell, they've become the boogeyman. Many of the disenfranchised voters leaving the CPC tent throw their vote behind Maxime Bernier and the PPC (who they've heard the same consistent message from now for 5-6 years) and the PPC takes 18-20% of the popular vote.

It's hardly an unbelievable plot given that it's already happened before.

 

[Kat Stevens]

That's a hyper-specific crystal ball you got there. Swiss made? Tisot or Rolex maybe?

 

[daftandbarmy]

Very low turn out, surprise surprise.

Not much to glean from this one about the electoral mood in the country.

All three went as predicted.

Max Bernier won't have much to use in this. 

Outremont was a failure and garnered fringe support only.
Burnaby did get 10% and seemed to erode the CPC vote but he also had a candidate with some name recognition so maybe not a good indicator. 10% would be a spoiler in the next election but I doubt that this will be consistent.

No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not

The people in BC are generally voted/ referendumed out based on the-more-crazy-than-normal political situation here. It will likely be different East of the Rockies, where 90% of Canadian voters live....

 

[ballz]

That's a hyper-specific crystal ball you got there.

No, that would imply it was a prediction. It certainly wasn't. It's almost play-by-play of what happened with the reform party, except with different characters.

Just pointing out what I believe is absurdity to act like the PPC is a write-off that can't even get started because it has "only" managed to get 10% in a by-election, it has "only" managed to sign up 30,000 members, it has "only" managed to put together 338 riding associations, and it has "only" raised over a million dollars, all in less than 5 months since it was first announced it would actually exist... and less than 2 months after actually getting officially recognized by Elections Canada so that it can offer tax receipts.

 

[brihard]

No, that would imply it was a prediction. It certainly wasn't. It's almost play-by-play of what happened with the reform party, except with different characters.

Just pointing out what I believe is absurdity to act like the PPC is a write-off that can't even get started because it has "only" managed to get 10% in a by-election, it has "only" managed to sign up 30,000 members, it has "only" managed to put together 338 riding associations, and it has "only" raised over a million dollars, all in less than 5 months since it was first announced it would actually exist... and less than 2 months after actually getting officially recognized by Elections Canada so that it can offer tax receipts.

No, the PPC are a write off because they’re a bug lamp for xenophobes and wing nuts. I’m by no means saying that anyone following that party is that kind of person, just that they have established a natural home in the Canadian political landscape for the crazy racist uncle who makes family dinners awkward. Their arms are u comfortably open to some very ugly fringe politics. I believe that many of us who will comfortably alternate between CPC and LPC will never think about voting for them.

Regarding the Reform Party, don’t forget that they plateaued around 20% of the seats and couldn’t crack that until “unite the right” brought in the PC wing of the Canadian conservative movement. If you want to predict a similar trajectory for PPC, fine, but really all you’re predicting is the LPC being the beneficiary of a few ‘gimme’ elections until Canadian conservatism gets its act together.

Best case for Canada is a Conservative win in this election, and PPC gets the rug yanked out from under them. A party enticing to populist right wing demagogues is not something Canada stands to benefit from.

 

[Kat Stevens]

No, that would imply it was a prediction. It certainly wasn't. It's almost play-by-play of what happened with the reform party, except with different characters.

Just pointing out what I believe is absurdity to act like the PPC is a write-off that can't even get started because it has "only" managed to get 10% in a by-election, it has "only" managed to sign up 30,000 members, it has "only" managed to put together 338 riding associations, and it has "only" raised over a million dollars, all in less than 5 months since it was first announced it would actually exist... and less than 2 months after actually getting officially recognized by Elections Canada so that it can offer tax receipts.

Ah, the Galactica Political model; "All this has happened before, and it will happen again".

 

[ballz]

No, the PPC are a write off because they’re a bug lamp for xenophobes and wing nuts. I’m by no means saying that anyone following that party is that kind of person, just that they have established a natural home in the Canadian political landscape for the crazy racist uncle who makes family dinners awkward. Their arms are u comfortably open to some very ugly fringe politics. I believe that many of us who will comfortably alternate between CPC and LPC will never think about voting for them.

You may, in the end, be correct on this, but it's simply far too early to write them off because of that. Indeed, they had a large collection of the fringes try to hijack the party, and of course the media and other parties tried to bolster that reputation, but they have done a pretty good job so far keeping the party on track including kicking out a bunch of people very swiftly upon uncovering any bad history they have. It's a test of time they have to pass.

If you want to predict a similar trajectory for PPC, fine, but really all you’re predicting is the LPC being the beneficiary of a few ‘gimme’ elections until Canadian conservatism gets its act together.

Oh give it up. I'm not predicting anything, I'm just not being stupid enough to declare very possible things as impossible.

Anyway, find me an argument for voting for Scheer that is rooted in principled conservatism and not that he is the lesser of two evils, and I'll care. The difference between the Libs & the CPC at this point is in rhetoric only.

Best case for Canada is a Conservative win in this election, and PPC gets the rug yanked out from under them. A party enticing to populist right wing demagogues is not something Canada stands to benefit from.

The irony here is too much. The Libs and CPC are sucking at the teet of every given identifiable group in existence, and it's the PPC who have categorically stated they will do otherwise, and yet its the PPC accused of being demagogues. Canada stands to benefit a lot from moving away from identity politics, not further into it.

 

[dapaterson]

My perspective on the upcoming election...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mJw50OdZ4