Israel retains interest in F22EX (export F22)

[CougarKing]

Whether they will actually get them is another story.

Israel Retains Interest in F-22EX Fighters
30-Mar-2009 10:20 EDT

In April 2007, Flight International reported that Israel had approached the USA about acquiring F-22 stealth fighters, as concern mounted about new threats to the IAF’s regional air superiority from proposed sales of advanced US weapons to the Gulf states, and Israeli assessments of a growing threat from Iran. Sources say that the issue was raised during a trip by US defense secretary Robert Gates to Israel, though Gates replied with briefings designed to encourage Israel to accept the F-35 instead.

Current Israeli Air Force plans call for F-35s to replace retiring F-16s, a request that has been approved by the State Department. The F-22 request is likely to face tougher sledding, for a number of reasons. Nevertheless, Israel may be about to revive it, in the wake of sticker shock over the F-35A’s price tag, and concerns about delivery dates. Israel will be one of several countries (Australia, Israel, Japan, to some extent South Korea) who will be following upcoming Congressional deliberations over lifting the F-22’s export ban, in order to keep the production line alive with a downgraded variant…

Back in 2007, the prospect of sending a signal to Iran, and the potential for presenting Congress with a package deal that neutralizes two major lobbies at once by arming both the Gulf States and Israel with more advanced weapons, were seen as factors in the deal’s favor. So was US-Israeli cooperation in sensitive areas like short-range missile/rocket defenses and ballistic missile defense.

In the end, it made no difference.

Japan is also known to have asked about an F-22 export version, and a wide spectrum of opinion in Australia (including the now-governing Labor Party) is pushing for an F-22EX request of their own. While unrelated, each request from an important ally does raise both the pressure to create an F-22EX version, and the perceived market & benefits from doing so.

The new administration has political considerations of its own to deal with as it sorts through these requests, with conflicting tendencies coming from within the Democratic party itself on issues ranging from cooperation with allies to America’s relationship with Israel.

The Obama administration must also consider domestic issues related to the F-22’s production chain, which will begin shutting down in 2009 unless new orders are placed. F-22EX orders from Japan, Israel, and possibly Australia would extend that date by at least 3 years, at which point much more would be known about the F-35’s performance and final costs.

The military-organizational side of this equation also matters. Japan and Australia currently enjoy excellent relations with the US security establishment. Japan is working with the USA on missile defense projects, and Australian forces serve beside American troops on the war’s front lines.

In Israel’s case, however, its military sales to China continued even after US-Chinese relations cooled. This has resulted in lasting damage to its relations within the US security establishment, whose anger eventually boiled over into exclusion from the F-35 program. An agreement covering Israeli arms export restrictions got the exclusion lifted – albeit on a conditional basis that speaks eloquently to the state of trust within the relationship.

Israel’s political strength in the USA, and Iran’s proxy wars and threats to wipe out the Jewish state, add impetus on the positive side of the scale. So does the USAF’s interest in keeping the F-22 production line open. Unfortunately for Israel, very high levels of trust are an absolute precondition for sales of an F-22 variant.

The current situation, and Japan’s strong request, make approval of an F-22EX version (likely without source code, with software lock-outs, and with a downgraded AESA radar like Raytheon’s APG-63v3 or Northrop’s SABR) a possibility for Israel. It is by no means a certainty, however.

Updates and Developments

March 29/08: The Jerusalem Post reports that:

“The [Israeli] Defense Ministry will closely follow discussions in Congress next month over the United States’ 2010 fiscal defense budget amid growing speculation that a ban on foreign sales of the stealth F-22 fighter jet may be lifted to keep the threatened production line alive…. “If this happens we will definitely want to review the possibility of purchasing the F-22,” explained a top military source. “In order to have strong deterrence and to win a conflict we need to have the best aircraft that exists.”

Speculation is that Israel would seek to order F-22As immediately, then wait until later in the F-35’s production cycle, when the plane will be cheaper to buy, fully tested, and more technically mature.

Nov 10/08: Flight International reports that sticker shock over the proposed $200 million per plane price of F-35As, and a need for rapid delivery, may push Israel to renew its F-22EX request with the new Obama administration.

“This aircraft can be delivered in two years if the deal is approved [DID: 2011, vs. 2012-14 for F-35s], and that is very important for the security of Israel,” comments one Israeli source.”

Sept 26/08: the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Israel official request to buy an initial 25 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters, with an option to purchase at a later date an additional 50 F-35A or F-35B Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft. The estimated cost is $15.2 billion if all options are exercised, or about $200 million per plane as the in-service cost. Read “Israel Plans to Buy F-35s” for more.

 

[tango22a]

Cougar Daddy:

Please don't emphasize quotes in RED...It makes them impossible to read on my lap-top,

Thanks,

tango22a

 

[tomahawk6]

While I would favor Israel,Japan or any of our close allies getting the F-22 the real issue for me is how does the US protect its stealth and other secret technology from being transferred to a third party ? Israel has been guilty of this in the past.

 

[GAP]

Cougar Daddy:

Please don't emphasize quotes in RED...It makes them impossible to read on my lap-top,

Thanks,

tango22a

Just as aside....changing the color name to "lime" or "aqua" produce colors which stand out nicely...

 

[CougarKing]

Just as aside....changing the color name to "lime" or "aqua" produce colors which stand out nicely...

Colours changed to be in line with the suggestions above. 

 

[starseed]

While I would favor Israel,Japan or any of our close allies getting the F-22 the real issue for me is how does the US protect its stealth and other secret technology from being transferred to a third party ? Israel has been guilty of this in the past.

Given how much Israel depends on US exports to sustain their military, nevermind that little incident in 1973, I think you could make a pretty persuasive case to Israel to keep F-22s in-house. The IAF is their biggest advantage over their aggressive neighbours, they would have to be fools to bite the hand that feeds.

It would probably be controversial to have Israel be the first country the US allows exports of Raptors, though. There is a shockingly large lunatic fringe that still believes in the whole Zionist world domination conspiracy, both in the US and other western countries. All you have to do is read a few comments on the CBC website any time there is an article involving Israel or the middle east to see that. If the states wanted to export F22s to Israel, they would probably have to lift restrictions on exports to other countries as well - which would piss off just about everyone that invested in the JSF program. I don't think it's going to happen.

 

[FoverF]

There are a lot of interests in the US competing over the whole issue of exporting F-22s. The whole issue becomes much simpler if we give them an easy option;

Let the first customer be a friendly, English-speaking, western democracy, who is a member of NATO/NORAD/ABCA, shares North America, will be scrambling to defend American airspace directly, and is going to be looking for fighters in the next 10 years or so.

It would also help if that ally had a limited operations budget, which would push them towards buying fewer numbers of more capable aircraft. After all, with their weak political will, token air refuelling capability, and meagre ability to sustain operations in their own north, the number of airframes in their fleet is unlikely to be the limiting factor in their combat capability.

If Canada were to order maybe 30-odd airframes (one deployable squadron and an OTU), we would keep the F-22 line open, get commonality with the USAF, and when we deploy a token 6 airframes overseas, they will be the best 6 airframes money can buy. And in a real alpha-threat confrontation (*cough*Russia*cough*) we'll be limited by the number of airfields in the north and by our ability to protect and supply them long before we run out of airframes to deploy, so a smaller buy might make sense.

Just some thoughts, while watching the Stanley Cup finals. I think the F-22 and the F-35 both have their strength and weaknesses in terms of a Canadian purchase, but I wouldn't shed any tears if we became the first export customer of the Raptor.

 

[CougarKing]

There are a lot of interests in the US competing over the whole issue of exporting F-22s. The whole issue becomes much simpler if we give them an easy option;

Let the first customer be a friendly, English-speaking, western democracy, who is a member of NATO/NORAD/ABCA, shares North America, will be scrambling to defend American airspace directly, and is going to be looking for fighters in the next 10 years or so.

It would also help if that ally had a limited operations budget, which would push them towards buying fewer numbers of more capable aircraft. After all, with their weak political will, token air refuelling capability, and meagre ability to sustain operations in their own north, the number of airframes in their fleet is unlikely to be the limiting factor in their combat capability.

If Canada were to order maybe 30-odd airframes (one deployable squadron and an OTU), we would keep the F-22 line open, get commonality with the USAF, and when we deploy a token 6 airframes overseas, they will be the best 6 airframes money can buy. And in a real alpha-threat confrontation (*cough*Russia*cough*) we'll be limited by the number of airfields in the north and by our ability to protect and supply them long before we run out of airframes to deploy, so a smaller buy might make sense.

Just some thoughts, while watching the Stanley Cup finals. I think the F-22 and the F-35 both have their strength and weaknesses in terms of a Canadian purchase, but I wouldn't shed any tears if we became the first export customer of the Raptor.

And speaking of the issue of exporting F22s:

Perhaps the JASDF might just settle for the F15SE/Silent Eagle variant instead at this rate?

Cost of F-22 fighter for Japan as much as $250 mln
Reuters
Reuters - Saturday, June 6

By Andrea Shalal-Esa

WASHINGTON, June 5 - The U.S. Air Force estimates it would cost Japan as much as $250 million per plane to buy dozens of radar-evading F-22 fighter jets, a U.S. senator told Japan's ambassador in a letter, saying he hopes to reverse a current U.S. ban on such exports.

Senator Daniel Inouye, who heads the Senate Appropriations Committee, said this price included the cost of creating an export version of the most advanced U.S. fighter, built by Lockheed Martin Corp <LMT.N>. This assumes production would begin in four to five years, with deliveries in seven to nine years, according to two sources familiar with the letter.

Rob Blumenthal, a spokesman for Inouye, confirmed the senator had sent letters on the F-22 issue to the ambassador, Ichiro Fujisaki, and to Defense Secretary Robert Gates. He declined to release the letters or discuss their content.

The sources, who asked not to be named since the issue is still far from decided, said the U.S. Air Force had reversed its opposition to F-22 exports after studying the issue of F-22 exports again over the past four to six months.

The estimated cost is far higher than the roughly $150 million paid by the Air Force for its last batch of fighters, but the price tag would come down considerably if Congress decides to add funding for more U.S. F-22s to the fiscal 2010 budget, the sources said.

"That would help quite a bit because it would avert the cost of restarting the production line once it had stopped," said one of the sources.

Gates in April said the Pentagon would halt production of the F-22 fighter at 187 airplanes, after ordering four more in fiscal 2009 that ends Sept. 30.

Top Air Force officials say they support Gates' decision given budget constraints, but had pushed in the past for as many as 60 more, or a total of 243.

Creating an export version of the F-22 fighter would also keep the door open to a possible resumption of F-22 production for the U.S. Air Force in the future.

Japan for years has expressed interest in buying two squadrons of its own F-22s, which could translate into orders of 40 to 60 more airplanes for Lockheed.

Foreign sales of the F-22 fighter are banned under an amendment by House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey that was passed in 1998, but recent North Korean missile launches and continued interest by Japan in buying the F-22 may be softening congressional opposition, particularly since the F-22 production line is now nearing a shutdown.

The sources cited growing support for dropping the export ban, noting that tens of thousands of jobs were at stake around the country.

(...)