Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

[RangerRay]

More calm, sober, and deliberate diplomacy from Trump as this situation continues to develop.

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“We”?

The rest of that is the usual “WTAF?”

 

[Czech_pivo]

Maybe this is all just to slap them back a decade in development of their weapons program...

But, if this turns out to be a decapitation mission/regime change, I wonder what the long term objectives are:

• destroy the Iranian leadership and let Iranians sort it out themselves
• destroy the Iranian leadership and "nation build" with the "whole of government" approach
• destroy the Iranian leadership and provide SOF/Air Spt assistance to the chosen faction

I'd guess it will be the third option.

How much of their oil goes to the EU at the moment? If the % is significant and any sort of civil unrest/war leads to a drop (short or long term) in oil exports, this will put the EU in a hard place to continue to shut off Russian oil and now have to close the gap on the missing Iranian oil imports to the EU.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well I think it has shown what a Russian security guarantee means.
(Just as much as an American or British one…)



Well best OS stuff seems to suggest around 50/50 and Ukraine has also hit several Russian UAS manufacturing centers so I suspect it will hurt.

As well Russia was apparently getting some Missiles and Rockets from Iran as well as NK.

Worst case scenario is it degrades Russia a bit - but IMHO it will also stir up the as well as the Stan’s as they can see that Russia isn’t in a position to support a lot of it’s allies.

But Israel clearly gave Russia a giant middle finger here (given the whole Russian Mutual Defense Pact with Iran) and the question is: given Israeli earlier efforts to straddle the fence with Russia and Ukraine what could this mean for Israeli and Ukrainian cooperation from this point.

Israel basically gives everyone the middle finger - doesn't matter who.

If only Canada could have 10% of the confidence to not give a fuck what others think, just imagine how much better off we'd be.

 

[RangerRay]

Israel basically gives everyone the middle finger - doesn't matter who.

If only Canada could have 10% of the confidence to not give a fuck what others think, just imagine how much better off we'd be.

Gurney’s “Asshole Nation”, where “Canada is back” isn’t a platitude, but a threat.

 

[OldSolduer]

Gurney’s “Asshole Nation”, where “Canada is back” isn’t a platitude, but a threat.

Thanks to that turd PM ….

 

[QV]

How much of their oil goes to the EU at the moment? If the % is significant and any sort of civil unrest/war leads to a drop (short or long term) in oil exports, this will put the EU in a hard place to continue to shut off Russian oil and now have to close the gap on the missing Iranian oil imports to the EU.

Best get that Alberta O&G to market hey? I hear some countries were already asking...

 

[QV]

More calm, sober, and deliberate diplomacy from Trump as this situation continues to develop.

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Sometimes to fight crazy you gotta get a little crazy too.

 

[KevinB]

Israel basically gives everyone the middle finger - doesn't matter who.

If only Canada could have 10% of the confidence to not give a fuck what others think, just imagine how much better off we'd be.

Well Israel can back it up…

Canada might get the finger bitten off and stuck back in your butt

 

[QV]

He never misses an opportunity to take credit from others work does he.

I guess that Israel got a wink and a nod from Uncle Sam before launching.

Wasn't there a soft recall of consulate families from the region and other air movements a few weeks ago?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Best get that Alberta O&G to market hey? I hear some countries were already asking...

Build out Churchill right quick.

 

[Remius]

Maybe this is all just to slap them back a decade in development of their weapons program...

That seems to be the theme for the last 30 years or so.

But, if this turns out to be a decapitation mission/regime change, I wonder what the long term objectives are:

• destroy the Iranian leadership and let Iranians sort it out themselves

Israel will likely endorse that.

• destroy the Iranian leadership and "nation build" with the "whole of government" approach

Only the US can do that. And MAGA will melt down over that I would think,

• destroy the Iranian leadership and provide SOF/Air Spt assistance to the chosen faction

Same as number two.

I'd guess it will be the third option.

And what would MAGA’s reaction to that be given that a lot of them are already in an uproar about supporting Israel?

Tucker Carlson, Rogan, Sam Smith, MTG etc seem to be ready to call for Trump’s head over this already…

Seems to be that this would be a lot of broken promises about no new wars, america first etc etc.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Seems to be that this would be a lot of broken promises about no new wars, america first etc etc.

Depends how one defines a "war."

Bomb the shit out of a place (or help do so - and take lead credit even if you don't do a lot), don't send your own troops to get bogged down, let others sort out the aftermath (and blame them if it goes to shit - again) - is this a "war"? It'll all be in the eye of the political beholder.

 

[QV]

That seems to be the theme for the last 30 years or so.

Israel will likely endorse that.

Only the US can do that. And MAGA will melt down over that I would think,

Same as number two.


And what would MAGA’s reaction to that be given that a lot of them are already in an uproar about supporting Israel?

Tucker Carlson, Rogan, Sam Smith, MTG etc seem to be ready to call for Trump’s head over this already…

Seems to be that this would be a lot of broken promises about no new wars, america first etc etc.

I agree that MAGA would (justifiably) melt down over any kind of prolonged land invasion of substance.

But Trump has not refrained from using limited strategic strikes in the past and I think the majority of Americans support that kind of military use particularly in the case of taking out terrorism/or threat actors to US/allies. That is America first and not a "new war".

I don't think limited support including air strikes and SOF ground elements are off the table for the majority of Americans. There is widespread belief that how the US began in Astan (small CIA/SOF teams enabling friendly factions, surgical strikes, air support) should have remained the tool throughout rather than big army and Haliburton. If Trump went that route he'd maintain support as opposed to sending plain loads of cash with hopes/wishes.

 

[Remius]

Depends how one defines a "war."

Bomb the shit out of a place (or help do so - and take lead credit even if you don't do a lot), don't send your own troops to get bogged down, let others sort out the aftermath (and blame them if it goes to shit - again) - is this a "war"? It'll all be in the eye of the political beholder.

Given the blame they gave Biden for Ukraine and Oct 7th I’d say it more than qualifies.

Trying to understand the reconciliation or non reconciliation of those things. The current reaction from MAGA star supporters seems to indicate this isn’t going over well with them.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Given the blame they gave Biden for Ukraine and Oct 7th I’d say it more than qualifies.

Lotsa things Biden did get a lot more critical scrutiny than similar things POTUS47 does, hence my "political YMMV" caveat. I'd classify it as war, too, but I've been accused of being right wing by my lefty friends and left wing by my righty friends

The current reaction from MAGA star supporters seems to indicate this isn’t going over well with them.

They may surprise us this time, but there have been too many other times where they all roll over and "follow the leader" for me to be optimistic - although I'd be happy to be wrong.

 

[PrairieFella]

Lotsa things Biden did get a lot more critical scrutiny than similar things POTUS47 does, hence my "political YMMV" caveat. I'd classify it as war, too, but I've been accused of being right wing by my lefty friends and left wing by my righty friends

Man, that must be so freaking tiring. Political purity tests (too much, not enough) amongst friends should not exist.

 

[NavyShooter]

What I see happening is the B2's that we saw staged at Diego Garcia starting a few weeks ago will take a 'little detour' up and drop some things that'll burrow deep and finish off the processing/refining capability that ISR can probably not dig down to with their bombs, then the US will turn around and take their toys home.

Ground force? Nope.

Specwar folks? Nope.

Not a single boot on the ground unless there's some kind of CSAR requirement.

And the F22 will still probably be denied its first intercept because ISR has destroyed pretty much the entire Iranian airforce already.

Or maybe none of that will happen.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Well Israel can back it up…

Canada might get the finger bitten off and stuck back in your butt

Not my butt per se I hope......

 

[The Bread Guy]

.... Seems to be that this would be a lot of broken promises about no new wars, america first etc etc.

Not to worry, bruh - even the GOP said late last year it'll all be OK ....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1853537733479686309

 

[Cloud Cover]

Explain this to me please. I’ve been in the fields for all morning. What did I miss.