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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933324586214395966

Statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio "Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self- defense. President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel."
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Interestingly, Rubio’s statement on the strikes is basically that the US has nothing to do with this and that Iran should not involve the US in it’s response, but doesn’t mention anything about the US supporting or defending Israel from retaliation. It seems like the US might not be happy that Israel took unilateral action against Iran. It’s hard to see the US not helping to defend Israel, if only to protect the many US citizens in Israel, but it’ll be interesting to see if and how Trump decides to express displeasure at Netanyahu for forcing his hand.
 
With preliminary reports starting to come in, including a lot of pointing at blasted buildings and asking “who lived there?” it sounds like potentially a lot of senior regime leadership and nuclear scientists were hit. There are reports coming out that the commander of the IRGC is among those killed.

Separately, there are reports of hits at Natanz and Fordow, which are both absolute “well no shit” targets, plus the Arak heavy water site. I imagine much more to come.

At the strategic level, this really helps put into perspective the utter savaging of Hezbollah and to a lesser extent Hamas as necessary shaping ops in preparation for this. Iran will have to punch back, hard, and the asymmetrical terrorism component of that would of course have figured prominently.
 
Remius said:
I can’t believe this is happening under Trump…
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I think we're all mature enough to keep the political pot shots in the politics area, or I can just move this thread and lose half the contributors that don't want to go near those sub boards?

Back on track.... @brihard other than missiles, I don't think Iran has the means to strike back. As you mentioned, Hezbollah and Hamas are in tatters and their proxy in Yemen has been significantly weakened and had to cut a deal with "the great satan". If Israel is smart, they'll monitor potential Iran missile launch sites and keep aircraft close if they can to strike the launchers. They could potentially take out large portions of their nuclear program and their missile deterrent force over the next few days if Iran isn't careful.
 
brihard said:
With preliminary reports starting to come in, including a lot of pointing at blasted buildings and asking “who lived there?” it sounds like potentially a lot of senior regime leadership and nuclear scientists were hit. There are reports coming out that the commander of the IRGC is among those killed.

Separately, there are reports of hits at Natanz and Fordow, which are both absolute “well no shit” targets, plus the Arak heavy water site. I imagine much more to come.

At the strategic level, this really helps put into perspective the utter savaging of Hezbollah and to a lesser extent Hamas as necessary shaping ops in preparation for this. Iran will have to punch back, hard, and the asymmetrical terrorism component of that would of course have figured prominently.
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Iranian state TV already confirmed the commander of the IRGC is dead, as is the chief of staff of thr armed forces, and their top nuclear scientist. Rumors the president was killed to but thats not confirmed.
 
PuckChaser said:
I think we're all mature enough to keep the political pot shots in the politics area, or I can just move this thread and lose half the contributors that don't want to go near those sub boards?

Back on track.... @brihard other than missiles, I don't think Iran has the means to strike back. As you mentioned, Hezbollah and Hamas are in tatters and their proxy in Yemen has been significantly weakened and had to cut a deal with "the great satan". If Israel is smart, they'll monitor potential Iran missile launch sites and keep aircraft close if they can to strike the launchers. They could potentially take out large portions of their nuclear program and their missile deterrent force over the next few days if Iran isn't careful.
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I think they intend to take out exactly those things regardless of how careful is. I don’t think Israel intends this to be a. Wry limited strike. I think they simply have to deal with a limited number of strike airframes with long legs, and do this in multiple waves. Tonight will have been planned against the most critical and most fleeting targets- known major sites around which defences could be expected to coalesce, and leadership/scientific figures who can be moved and hidden.

I don’t think Iran is neutered, but yes their capacity for reprisal is somehimited. Most likely? Mass missile attacks attempting to overwhelm Israeli defences, maybe a bit of proxy terrorism elsewhere. Most dangerous might be major economic threats such as to the strait of Hormuz, and a fatalistic Iranian regime going balls to the wall throwing everything they’ve got both conventional and not. Western security intelligence and counterterrorism forces are going to be on tenterhooks I think…
 
PuckChaser said:
I think we're all mature enough to keep the political pot shots in the politics area, or I can just move this thread and lose half the contributors that don't want to go near those sub boards?
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Sure…
PuckChaser said:
Back on track.... @brihard other than missiles, I don't think Iran has the means to strike back. As you mentioned, Hezbollah and Hamas are in tatters and their proxy in Yemen has been significantly weakened and had to cut a deal with "the great satan". If Israel is smart, they'll monitor potential Iran missile launch sites and keep aircraft close if they can to strike the launchers. They could potentially take out large portions of their nuclear program and their missile deterrent force over the next few days if Iran isn't careful.
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So this looks like a décapitation strike. Similar to what they did to Hezbollah. I suspect strikes on nuclear capabilities while a bonus is not the real goal.
 
KevinB said:
Because Canada can do what?

Have an engineer from a CF-18 fall on on Iran?
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OldSolduer said:
I think he may have meant not making a statement like I would:

"After 46 years of intimidation, threats, export of terrorism SOMEONE finally has the BALLS to hammer the brutal theocracy of Iran"
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I mean that we should avoid getting roped into (in any capacity) the original forever war. The entire region has been fought over for thousands of years with little pause, and likely will continue long after we're all dust.

On another note is anyone a little concerned about the other elephant in the room? The regime might not have the ability to make the bomb now, but they still have access to a ton of nuclear material. Should they feel that there is nothing left to lose, there's always the much nastier unconventional option.

Iran also has proven drone technology.
 
That is a massive escalation and the only option at this point will be all out war. There's no way Iran can squeak of that option. Hopefully there isn't too much fallout and that anything is away from civvies.

Grim.

As an aside, here's some predictive footage of what the skies over Iraq are about to look like.

 
PrairieFella said:
That is a massive escalation and the only option at this point will be all out war. There's no way Iran can squeak of that option. Hopefully there isn't too much fallout and that anything is away from civvies.

Grim.
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It's going to drag a couple countries in the region into the war, depending on where that fallout lands.
 
KevinB said:
Let’s face it Trump’s TACO shit showed the Israelis that they needed to put paid to the Iranian nuclear program.

Everyone else knows now, get the bomb as quick as you can.
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Maybe you're on to something. 2% GDP can be spent on a few MIRVs.

So ends the Pax Americana. If the Americans cant lean on their own client state, the age of them keeping the post-war order in check is over. Let's hope the next order is a Pax Europensis as opposed to a Pax Seres (Serica?).
 
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