Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

[brihard]

Take with a hefty grain of salt. But if true I think this might be the start of something.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933668343086477400

I’m just gonna dump a whole bag of salt on that.

 

[armyvern]

Take with a hefty grain of salt. But if true I think this might be the start of something.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933668343086477400

A couple of my Israeli friends are of Iranian origin. One whose parents continue to be in Iran have basicly stated same to her - that they are witnessing the beginnings of forbidden words spoken 'out loud', and graffitti calling for uprising against the Mullahs apparently.

Will it last?
Will it spread?

If so, will the Persians be successful in rising back their lion?

Time will tell.

 

[PrairieFella]

Chinese planes have been photographed on the tarmac in Iran. Not good.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Chinese planes have been photographed on the tarmac in Iran. Not good.

Probably pulling out their people.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Woe to the country that ever pisses of both Israel and Ukraine at the same time.
The can of ass whooping that the Mossad and Ukrainian Secret Intelligence Agency will come down on them will be severe and crippling.

 

[RangerRay]

A couple of my Israeli friends are of Iranian origin. One whose parents continue to be in Iran have basicly stated same to her - that they are witnessing the beginnings of forbidden words spoken 'out loud', and graffitti calling for uprising against the Mullahs apparently.

Will it last?
Will it spread?

If so, will the Persians be successful in rising back their lion?

Time will tell.

Marg bar diktator

 

[armyvern]

Marg bar diktator

One can only hope!

 

[Brad Sallows]

Under "things that can only happen once", is the exposure of the Pentagon Pizza Index, which will now routinely feature in the intelligence tracking of all nations that matter and require the Pentagon to either change its habits or order large quantities of pizza frivolously to keep enemies guessing. I first saw it mentioned a very few hours before the first news I read of Israeli strikes.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Under "things that can only happen once", is the exposure of the Pentagon Pizza Index, which will now routinely feature in the intelligence tracking of all nations that matter and require the Pentagon to either change its habits or order large quantities of pizza frivolously to keep enemies guessing. I first saw it mentioned a very few hours before the first news I read of Israeli strikes.

I saw that movie!

 

[brihard]

Under "things that can only happen once", is the exposure of the Pentagon Pizza Index, which will now routinely feature in the intelligence tracking of all nations that matter and require the Pentagon to either change its habits or order large quantities of pizza frivolously to keep enemies guessing. I first saw it mentioned a very few hours before the first news I read of Israeli strikes.

It’s not new. This has been watched for years.

 

[armyvern]

Word on the street is that Starlink is now beaming throughout Iran allowing connectivity to/for the people.

 

[ueo]

I wouldn't be too upset if a few Canadian bombs accidentally fell on Iranian territory.

We got bombs?

 

[KevinB]

It’s not new. This has been watched for years.

Agreed, but it has gotten more and more traction over the years.

But generally that is only for the lower levels that are called in or stay in from known events. The senior leaders have their own food and things.

 

[HavokFour]

Iran now threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.

That is certainly... a choice. Not entirely sure a smart one.

 

[Furniture]

Iran now threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.

That is certainly... a choice. Not entirely sure a smart one.

Dictatorships need to look strong for domestic audiences, and they don't really have anything else they can do. They can't effectively attack Israel, and they have no friends left to help them.

I'm guessing they assume America will do nothing, and Europe will cave and apply pressure on Israel to de-escalate.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

A couple of my Israeli friends are of Iranian origin. One whose parents continue to be in Iran have basicly stated same to her - that they are witnessing the beginnings of forbidden words spoken 'out loud', and graffitti calling for uprising against the Mullahs apparently.

Will it last?
Will it spread?

If so, will the Persians be successful in rising back their lion?

Time will tell.

Generally the Urban population is done with them, attendance at mosques has dropped sharply meaning many mosques were forced to close. Most of the support comes from poor rural areas.

 

[KevinB]

Dictatorships need to look strong for domestic audiences, and they don't really have anything else they can do. They can't effectively attack Israel, and they have no friends left to help them.

I'm guessing they assume America will do nothing, and Europe will cave and apply pressure on Israel to de-escalate.

Except that trying to close the Straights will ensure that the Russians and Houthi get no munitions to do their thing. Iran apparently has already made that decision simply as they can’t ship anything in the short term without leaving themselves without anything to launch at Israel or others.

Also due to the UAE being adjacent to the Straight a lot of ground based defenses can be supported. As well Iran being a state actor it’s a lot easier to punish Iranian government officials than the Houthi.

Interdicting Iran in that way is easier than the AntiHouthi efforts from Djibouti to support the Bab al-Mandan Straight that chokes the end of the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.



I do not see Israel letting up, not until the support for Irans terrorist lackeys is put to bed for ever (or a fairly long period).

 

[HavokFour]

Dictatorships need to look strong for domestic audiences, and they don't really have anything else they can do. They can't effectively attack Israel, and they have no friends left to help them.

I'm guessing they assume America will do nothing, and Europe will cave and apply pressure on Israel to de-escalate.

Definitely sounds like the final thrashings of something dealt a deathblow.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933868871544402172

3D illustration of the strikes on the Iranian regime’s Aerial Defense Array in the Tehran area: https://videoidf.azureedge.net/ba33e888-053e-494a-a084-54c170e38b88

Attached is an illustration of IDF strikes in Iran to date: https://videoidf.azureedge.net/cf0bd6b8-08dc-464f-a4b3-cb273db212f3

Attached is footage of a strike on surface-to-surface missile launchers: https://videoidf.azureedge.net/bd98d994-9c52-48c6-94bf-673d12b4dd89

הערכה: מספר הטילים שנותרו לאיראן אחרי מכת הפתיחה, גלי התקיפות והשיגורים לישראל - וואלה חדשות

מאמץ עילאי של "ענף מטרות איראן" באמ"ן לאתר סוללות ניידות לשיגור טילים בליסטיים ברחבי איראן ולחשוף אתרי ייצור. מערך הגנה אווירית נערך למטחים נוספים; גורמים בפיקוד העורף:"אנחנו נערכים לתרחישי קיצון"

news.walla.co.il

[Translated]
Following IDF attacks against launch sites, mobile, and stationary batteries, it is estimated that hundreds of missiles exploded on the ground or just before launch, leaving [Iran] with less than 2,000 missiles. This is in addition to damage to launchers whose numbers are limited. After that, missile production sites and weapons depots were also hit. It is unclear to what extent this affected the Iranian missile array.

According to estimates in the defense establishment, the Chief of Staff's statement more than hints at freedom of air operations in Iran, combined with groundbreaking intelligence capabilities revealed in the past 24 hours, the pace of attacks against the [Iranian] missile array will increase in the coming hours and will reach critical points tonight as well.

According to Israeli estimates, the Iranians will try to organize additional missile barrages, and in order to prepare for this, they must carry out actions that increase their visibility, paving the way for an attack. Security sources have clarified that this is a very complex and sensitive issue, but one that is the focus of a great deal of effort. Meanwhile, the Iranians are threatening to launch ballistic missiles larger than those launched so far at Israel with much larger warheads. Accordingly, the air defense systems are being prepared for additional barrages. Sources in the Home Front Command said a short time ago: "We are preparing for extreme scenarios. The public must be attentive to the Home Front Command's instructions, which will be improved. We are also investigating and drawing lessons."

Iran threatens strikes on US, UK and France bases in region if they prevent attacks on Israel

Iran has warned the United States, United Kingdom and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they help stop Tehran’s strikes on Israel, Iran state media reported.

www.lbc.co.uk

 

[The Bread Guy]

While not breaking, this summary from yesterday afternoon does a good job (as ISW usually does) of rounding up all the initial info ....

Institute for the Study of War

Israel launched an air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program. The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a we

www.understandingwar.org

Also attached if link doesn't work.

 

[brihard]

Iran now threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz.

That is certainly... a choice. Not entirely sure a smart one.

Not that I’m any sort of genius for anticipating that, but I mentioned it yesterday as a potential consequence:

Things I’m watching for (beyond obvious ongoing strikes and Iranian counters):

• Does Iran look to close the strait of Hormuz? Oil has already jumped significantly.

I’m sure the U.S. has robust plans in place for if Iran should attempt to close Hormuz. While they can likely play a much better ‘home’ game than ‘away’ game, Iran’s military has already taken a beating. Not sure they could sustain that for very long.

Right now the U.S. can tell Iran through back channels “Your beef is with Israel, and you’re losing. Right now you have no particular beef with us. If you decide that changes, we aren’t particularly committed to the current Iranian government remaining in charge.”

Some of us were talking a couple months ago about Trump pissing away soft power… Seems someone realized that maybe having a Persian language Voice of America might be a good thing after all:

Washington Post:

Voice of America brings back 50 staffers amid Iran-Israel conflict​

https://archive.is/nv3Io