Kurdistan Referendum/Other Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)

[The Bread Guy]

Meanwhile, among our allies on both sides ...

• “Iraqi Parliament rejects Kurdistan independence referendum” (NRT – Kurdish media)
• “U.S. says Kurdistan will not get int’l support for independence unless it becomes democracy” (ekurd.net – Kurdish media)
• “Barzani vows to press on with Kurdish referendum, defying Iraq parliament” (Reuters)
• “Kurdish official: Kurdistan Parliament will respond to Iraq’s anti-independence vote on Thursday” (kurdistan24.net)
• “Iraqi PM calls for urgent talks with Kurdish leadership” (NRT)
• “Arab League Chief calls for dialogue ahead of Kurdish referendum” (NRT)

op:

 

[The Bread Guy]

More Kurdish referendum friction ...

• "Iraq's Kirkuk province to vote in Kurdish independence referendum" (Reuters, 29 Aug 2017)
• "Iraqi parliament votes to remove Kirkuk governor from office" (Reuters, 14 Sept 2017)

 

[Lumber]

More Kurdish referendum friction ...

• "Iraq's Kirkuk province to vote in Kurdish independence referendum" (Reuters, 29 Aug 2017)
• "Iraqi parliament votes to remove Kirkuk governor from office" (Reuters, 14 Sept 2017)

Alright then, here comes Iraqi Civil War/Insurgency round 17.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Kurds accepted Iraq sovereignty on bequest of the US, once already, look what happened, the Iraq state folded when attacked by a few thousand terrorists and left the Kurds to their own devices. Kurdish independence is going happen either now or later. Both will have a cost, but for now the State of Iraq and Syria are weak and the timing is good. Turkey is also in throes as well. 

 

[The Bread Guy]

... Turkey is also in throes as well.

They've been pretty clear, indeed ...

• "Iraqi Kurdish referendum 'historic mistake': Turkey"
• "Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum will fuel instability, Turkey says" (Aug 2017)
• "Iraqi Kurdistan is gripped by excitement ahead of the Sept. 25 independence referendum. The sense of hopeful anticipation, however, is not limited to Iraqi Kurds. Their cousins in neighboring Turkey — reeling from Ankara’s heaviest crackdown in years — are watching the process with an equal excitement, hoping that a vote for independence will boost the standing of Kurds across the region ..."

 

[The Bread Guy]

The latest...

• "Kurdish parliament votes to move ahead with referendum" (AP)
• "Iraq's Kurdish parliament backs Sept 25 independence referendum" (Reuters)
• "... It seems that Canada once fulfils the mission statement of operation IMPACT we could be leaving the KRG on the precipice of a new conflict, rather than as a stable, secure region. The Kurds are one of the most pro-Western groups in the area, and a stable KRG would no doubt be invaluable to Canada’s interests in the region. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail, and the involved parties will find a diplomatic solution to this looming crisis." (NATO Association of Canada)

 

[MilEME09]

Well we didn't make the situation better by having CANSOFCOM train them, and then the west sending them weapons. Granted they have been the best force against the Islamic state, however if this leads to a Kurdistan vs Iraq civil war, the Kurds from a training point of view have the upper hand. Likely to inflict multiple military defeats in the opening weeks and months of any war.

 

[The Bread Guy]

The latest ...

• "Iraqi PM Warns Of Military Intervention If Kurdish Referendum Turns Violent" (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, US-funded media)
• "Iraq Leader Says He Will Use Force if Kurdish Referendum Turns Violent" (AP via New York Times)
• "Iraq army 'to intervene' if Kurds' referendum escalates -- Describing the vote as illegal and unconstitutional, Iraq's prime minister says he is prepared to use military force ..." (Al Jazeera English)
• "Barzani: We won’t accept from any country to say referendum ‘illegitimate’ " (NRT, Kurdish media)
• "Kurdish leadership to discuss US-backed ‘alternative’ to referendum Sunday" (Rudaw, Kurdish media)
• "Saudi Arabia offers mediation for resolving Erbil-Baghdad disputes" (Rudaw)
• "Turkey's Erdogan to discuss northern Iraq vote with Iraqi PM" (Reuters)

 

[Eye In The Sky]

Well we didn't make the situation better by having CANSOFCOM train them, and then the west sending them weapons. Granted they have been the best force against the Islamic state, however if this leads to a Kurdistan vs Iraq civil war, the Kurds from a training point of view have the upper hand. Likely to inflict multiple military defeats in the opening weeks and months of any war.

You're not considering the other countries involved who have been training the ISFs?  US, Australia etc?

 

[Ostrozac]

You're not considering the other countries involved who have been training the ISFs?  US, Australia etc?

And don't forget about Iran, who have also been actively training, mentoring and equipping Iraqi forces -- forces that are proving quite effective on the battlefield. Quite how we got to the point where Iranian mentored forces are operating in close cooperation with US mentored forces is itself a strange story -- enemy of my enemy and all that. But just like the WWII alliance between the US/UK and the USSR, it's dependent on the existence of that common enemy. So once ISIS is defeated, so is any reason for Iran and the US to carry on tolerating each other inside Iraq, and if Kurdistan tries to gain their independence, I would expect those Iranian forces to act in support of the Baghdad government in trying to prevent that independence. Iran does not particularly want a pro-US independent Kurdistan on their borders. It would be viewed as a US proxy, and a threat.

But hey, I've been wrong before. I wouldn't put money on that prediction. The situation in the Middle East is always complicated, but this is the worst that I can remember.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Latest referendum news ...

• "Iraq top court rules to suspend Kurdish referendum" (Al Jazeera English)
• "Turkish tanks drill on Iraqi border week before Kurdish vote" (Reuters)
• "Britain’s Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon said he would try to persuade Iraqi Kurdish leader Massud Barzani at a meeting later Monday to call off a controversial September 25 independence referendum ..." (channelstv.com)
  [*]"All military agreements end with KRG in case of split: Iran's Shamkhani" (AhlulBayt News Agency Shia News)

 

[Colin Parkinson]

The Kurds enemies are all busy and strained by the war, there will not be a better time to declare independence, Iraq failed them when ISIS overran their armies. On the plus side the Kurds need trade and can make deals if the West bankrolls them for the first years. Build good roads and pipeline facilities and get international partners to work out water rights and land title issues. The US can pressure Turkey to allow trade and flyover routes, while at the same time pressure Kurdistan not to support any cross border attacks. That I see is the main card the Kurds can play, trade and cessation of attacks in Turkey. 

 

[Bird_Gunner45]

The US can pressure Turkey to allow trade and flyover routes, while at the same time pressure Kurdistan not to support any cross border attacks. That I see is the main card the Kurds can play, trade and cessation of attacks in Turkey.

This may be a dangerous proposition though and push Turkey out of NATO. The Kurdish problem is a strategic one for the Turks and likely one that they are willing to stand up over. How much pressure the US can put on Turkey (who wouldn't allow US troops into Turkey for the invasion in 2003) is debatable, particularly if pushing means moving Turkey closer to Russia and further away from NATO and Israel.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... the Kurds need trade and can make deals if the West bankrolls them for the first years ...

They are working the oil fields as a potential revenue source, although, 1) assuming they can hang on to them post-independence, and 2) with a few "gotta wonder" players to keep an eye on (like Russia).

Meanwhile, IRQ's pres thinks the Kurdish referendum is critical enough to cancel a visit to the U.S.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some more of the latest ...

• “British defense secretary calls for delay of Kurdish referendum – KRP”
• “Saudi minister calls on Barzani to accept international mediations”
• “Referendum can be postponed only with guarantees on independence: Barzani”
• “PM Barzani: We Will Continue to Cooperate with Baghdad in War on Terrorism”
• “Kurdistan referendum leaves Iraq’s Turkmens in quandary” - “Curfew in Kirkuk as Turkmen, Kurd engage in clashes”
• “In response to the Kurdish independence referendum scheduled for September 25 and the Syrian Kurds’ elections of bodies running local communities on September 22, Turkey sent on Monday field messages to both parties by deploying its forces at the border of the two countries. Sources said that Ankara is deploying its forces and backing the Free Syrian Army to control Idlib and drive out Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham militants, which include factions similar to Fatah al-Sham, as a means to prevent the establishment of a “Kurdish corridor” from Syria’s Afreen to the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, western diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Commander of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) Sipan Hamo at the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria on September 12 to discuss ways of fighting ISIS terrorists …”

 

[Colin Parkinson]

This may be a dangerous proposition though and push Turkey out of NATO. The Kurdish problem is a strategic one for the Turks and likely one that they are willing to stand up over. How much pressure the US can put on Turkey (who wouldn't allow US troops into Turkey for the invasion in 2003) is debatable, particularly if pushing means moving Turkey closer to Russia and further away from NATO and Israel.

Turkey is basically out of NATO already and the given up on the EU so not a big step, the big stick would be trade and potential sanctions. I suspect the cream of the Turkish officer corp has been purged and the army will never again be allowed to be so efficient. Russia might see Kurdistan as a excellent counterpoint to Turkey as well.

 

[The Bread Guy]

More of the latest ...

• "Kurdish FM: Iraq’s judiciary doesn’t function, ruling won’t affect Region" (Rudaw, Kurdish media)
• "Turkey ‘will not allow fait accompli’ in Iraq’s north" (Hurriyet Daily News, Turkish media)

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some quick morning (in Eastern time) highlights from Kurdish media ...

• "Main offensive to defeat ISIS in Hawija begins after referendum*: Peshmerga**"
  [*]"New conflict over Kirkuk could follow ISIS removal from Hawija"
  [*]"Kirkuk shaping up as flashpoint ahead of Kurdistan independence vote"
  [*]"Barzani gives Baghdad ultimatum: Provide alternative in 3 days or vote proceeds"
  [*]"Turkey***, France, UN working on new alternative to referendum: Minister"
  [*]"Turkey is concerned that in "one night" all of the gains made by the Kurdistan Region since the overthrow of the Baathist regime in 2003 could be lost, if the independence referendum is held and could lead to an Iraqi "civil war," a senior Turkish presidential advisor revealed ..."
  [*]"Erdogan says Kurdish independence vote risks regional crisis"

*[size=8pt] - Set for next Monday, 25 Sept 2017.
** - If you're just tuning in, these are the guys Canada's SOF troops are helping out on the Kurdish side.
*** - Wonder how close Turkey's ideas are to France's & the U.N.'s, given how Turkey doesn't seem to want the Kurds around?

 

[The Bread Guy]

A few more hits ...

• "Iraq demands suspension of Kurdistan independence vote" (Reuters)
• "Iraqi PM: Only Israel supports Kurdistan Referendum" (Iraqi News)
• "Russia becomes Iraq Kurds' top funder, quiet about independence vote" (Reuters)
• "Erbil referendum could lead to Ankara's military intervention, media says" (Middle East North Africa Financial Network)

 

[The Bread Guy]

And the latest ...

• "The United States warned Wednesday it may not be able to help Iraq's Kurds negotiate a better deal with the Iraqi government if they go ahead with an independence vote ..." (AFP)
• "US urges KRG to cancel independence referendum, says it will destabilize Iraq, harm fight against Daesh" (Daily Sabah, TUR media)
• Suuuuuuuuuuuuure, it won't ... "Ankara won't regard Kurdistan referendum reason for war: former FM" (Kurdistan24)
• "KRG referendum will ignite a war: Turkey DefMin" (YeniSafak, TUR media)
• "Amidst Universal Opposition to KRG Referendum, Israel Stands by Kurds" (globalresearch.ca, "alternative" news site*)
• "Russia’s S-400s Will Protect Turkey From a “Kurdish Air Force” " (globalresearch.ca)
• "Trouble Is Brewing In Kurdistan" (oilprice.com)
• "Iraq's Kurds Seek Independence: What Impact for Oil Markets?" (Bloomberg)

* - Big on claiming terrorist attacks in places like Manchester, Paris & Brussels were false flags (usual Wikipedia caveats apply) to trigger government intervention.