Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[ModlrMike]

If the PM wants to be the instrument of change he contends he is, this would be the obvious play, especially as Poliviere is effectively no longer a factor. We are currently in a trade war with the US, that is part of a further initiative regarding territorial gain. Framing this as a wartime government would be a smart play. It would steer both parties back to the center.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If the PM wants to be the instrument of change he contends he is, this would be the obvious play, especially as Poliviere is effectively no longer a factor. We are currently in a trade war with the US, that is part of a further initiative regarding territorial gain. Framing this as a wartime government would be a smart play. It would steer both parties back to the center.

"Wartime" seems to be the last time a reasonable facsimile of this happened ....

Union Government

Insert DESCRIPTION here

canadahistory.ca

... and there was a bit of that sort-of tea leaf in Carney's election-night speech, if one wanted to read it that way:

... Throughout our history, there have been turning points. Throughout our history there have been turning points when the world’s fortunes were in the balance. That was the case at the start of the Second World War, just as it was at the end of the Cold War. And each time, Canada chose to step up. To assert ourselves as a free, sovereign, and ambitious nation, to lead the path of democracy and freedom. And because we are Canadian, to do so with compassion and generosity ...

... A supply-and-confidence agreement with the CPC is absurdly unlikely, but would send a heckuva "centrist and serious" message to all kinds of communities here and abroad.

I think there is too much ill will both sides for that to work, but it would be ideal.

Agreed it would be a tough sell on both sides (likely more on the Blue side than the Red, but not by much), but we could also see if PP truly means this bit (as pointed out upthread) from his election-night speech ...

... Conservatives will work with the prime minister and all parties with the common goal of defending Canada’s interests and getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty and the Canadian people ...

... and if Carney truly means this bit from his election-night speech ...

... Humility underscores the importance of governing as a team in cabinet and in caucus and working constructively with all parties across Parliament ...

Dare to dream ...

 

[MilEME09]

... and if Carney truly means this bit from his election-night speech ...

Dare to dream ...

it also depends on how willing to work with Carney the opposition is, or will they oppose everything for the sake of trying to force another election as soon as possible?

 

[GR66]

it also depends on how willing to work with Carney the opposition is, or will they oppose everything for the sake of trying to force another election as soon as possible?

I think the electorate would punish the opposition if they force an early elections (barring Carney doing something extremely stupid).

My guess is that the Liberals are safe until the US midterm elections next November. By then both the initial Trump shock will be over and likely dissatisfaction with Trump within the US will force him to moderate his actions somewhat, both of which will make Canadians more comfortable with the political situation.

 

[YZT580]

it also depends on how willing to work with Carney the opposition is, or will they oppose everything for the sake of trying to force another election as soon as possible?

don't think they will agitate for an early election unless it is a really obvious deviation from the election platform. For example, if the libs plan for replacing the carbon tax is smoke and mirrors and the tax payers are painfully on the hook or if they continue to obstruct resource development I could see an election in a couple of years

 

[Halifax Tar]

I think the electorate would punish the opposition if they force an early elections (barring Carney doing something extremely stupid).

My guess is that the Liberals are safe until the US midterm elections next November. By then both the initial Trump shock will be over and likely dissatisfaction with Trump within the US will force him to moderate his actions somewhat, both of which will make Canadians more comfortable with the political situation.

I agree. And the CPC needs to clean up their house before the go into another campaign.

 

[MilEME09]

I agree. And the CPC needs to clean up their house before the go into another campaign.

some soul searching might be in order to figure out why they lost so many seats, not to mention 1/3 of AB and SK voted liberal which is the highest its ever been. Through a pipeline in there, and you could see more red in AB in 4 years, which is crazy, and i cant believe I am even thinking its possible.

 

[QV]

I see Atlantic went mostly red again. Shocking.

The only way for the CPC to win is to offer more hand-outs then the LPC. That includes telling the CBC they will give them more than the LPC.

 

[QV]

some soul searching might be in order to figure out why they lost so many seats, not to mention 1/3 of AB and SK voted liberal which is the highest its ever been. Through a pipeline in there, and you could see more red in AB in 4 years, which is crazy, and i cant believe I am even thinking its possible.

The CPC made gains this election. The main reason for the LPC victory is the collapse of the NDP and big Bloc losses.

 

[Remius]

The CPC made gains this election. The main reason for the LPC victory is the collapse of the NDP and big Bloc losses.

Agreed. Still blew a sizeable lead.

The reasons why the Bloc took losses and the NDP collapsed is what the CPC needs to be introspective about. While they did gain from some of that collapse, the LPC gained more.

 

[MilEME09]

The CPC made gains this election. The main reason for the LPC victory is the collapse of the NDP and big Bloc losses.

except the vast majority of NDP seats went to the CPC, and by about 2% lost the popular vote, which isn't much but it was enough to decide this election. They also barely made inroads in quebec, gaining 1 seat, if they want to form government, they will need to do better in quebec next time.

 

[MilEME09]

rumors Kerry Diotte has offered to relinquish his seat so Pierre can run in a by-election in edmonton. This would be a gutsy move considering the CPC won this riding due to vote spliting, the LPC and NDP took 52% of the vote

 

[Remius]

rumors Kerry Diotte has offered to relinquish his seat so Pierre can run in a by-election in edmonton. This would be a gutsy move considering the CPC won this riding due to vote spliting, the LPC and NDP took 52% of the vote

I guess we see if the LPC bows out let’s PP run unopposed . Assuming that is where he ends up running.

A second loss would be a career finisher.

 

[dapaterson]

I guess we see if the LPC bows out let’s PP run unopposed . Assuming that is where he ends up running.

A second loss would be a career finisher.

It would open the door for Cheryl Gallant to be leader!

 

[The Bread Guy]

I guess we see if the LPC bows out let’s PP run unopposed . Assuming that is where he ends up running.

Based on Carleton, LPC may be just as merciful - with just as many Red resources pouring into Edmonton if that's where he runs. If Wikipedia is to be believed ...

Kerry Diotte - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

... about 3k more people voted Red and Orange than Blue.


Now, if Orange were to not run there (although they came in second), who knows?

A second loss would be a career finisher.

For. Sure.

 

[MilEME09]

I guess we see if the LPC bows out let’s PP run unopposed . Assuming that is where he ends up running.

A second loss would be a career finisher.

That would probably be doom for Pierre, NDP took second place, he might lose without vote splitting

 

[Czech_pivo]

except the vast majority of NDP seats went to the CPC, and by about 2% lost the popular vote, which isn't much but it was enough to decide this election. They also barely made inroads in quebec, gaining 1 seat, if they want to form government, they will need to do better in quebec next time.

Windsor didn't go Blue because the NDPer's voted Liberal - its because they voted for the CPC, which the vast majority did for the first (and only?) time of the lives.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I guess we see if the LPC bows out let’s PP run unopposed . Assuming that is where he ends up running.

A second loss would be a career finisher.

I personally hope that the LPC and the NDP both run candidates. The NDP to get 1 seat closer to official status and the Libs to get 1 seat closer to a majority.

PP was the MP for his riding just short of 21yrs. The people of that riding knew him and knew him well - they choose change.

 

[MilEME09]

Windsor didn't go Blue because the NDPer's voted Liberal - its because they voted for the CPC, which the vast majority did for the first (and only?) time of the lives.

Exactly my point

 

[Jarnhamar]

So anyways, where's my pay raise and thousands of dollars for my property the LPC ruined.