Nicaragua gives Chinese firm contract to build alternative to Panama Canal

[dapaterson]

There are also some differences between construction requirements in Arizona and Manitoba; while it's true that fewer illegal migrants try to enter Winnipeg, it's also true that frost heave is much less a concern in Phoenix.

 

[GAP]

add the seismic activity and water issues affecting the lake and this is a damn complex project.

Whatever bio is in the water of the lake will be completely open to change with the locks dumping gazillions of gallons from one ocean or the other.

 

[Rifleman62]

Of course David, but if you show up around 0800 with Timmies in hand, go home at 1600 or so five days a week, stop work @ 30 degrees C, instead of starting work in the cooler morning ........

If there is a short construction season use it productively.

 

[PanaEng]

Whatever bio is in the water of the lake will be completely open to change with the locks dumping gazillions of gallons from one ocean or the other.

That is one thing but I was inferring about the need for water to operate locks. That area does not get as much rain as Panama and the water required to operate the bigger locks will quickly deplete the lake.
That's assuming they are not going with a level crossing - that will multiply the volume of the excavation and pretty much drain the lake. A level crossing was an option in Panama but it would have destroyed the  ecosystem on the Caribbean coast of Panama and reshape the landscape around the canal (the Pacific is about 9" higher on average and can reach to about 25' difference at high tide on the Pacific - the Caribbean tides are negligible - this can cause a current of 1 to 4.5kn from the murky Pacific to the Caribbean)

It is still possible but not sure if financially feasible.

This is pretty good reading actually:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua_Canal

 

[CougarKing]

The route has been approved:

Nicaragua approves route for $40 billion canal linking oceans
Reuters
3 hours ago


MANAGUA (Reuters) - A Nicaraguan committee approved a proposed route on Monday for a $40 billion shipping channel across the Central American country that would compete with the Panama Canal.

The committee of government officials, businessmen and academics approved a 172 mile (278 km) route from the mouth of the Brito river on the Pacific side to the Punto Gorda river on the Caribbean that was proposed by executives from the HK Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co Ltd (HKND Group).

The proposed route still faces environmental and social impact studies that could recommend some changes to the plan, but those studies should be finished later this year to allow work to begin by December, said committee member Telemaco Talavera.

Opponents of the plan are concerned about the canal's effect on Lake Nicaragua, an important fresh water source for the country, as well as the impact on poor communities.

The plan is to finish the canal in 2019 and begin operations in 2020, Talavera said.

Reuters / Yahoo

 

[methionine]

Hey,


I actually lived in Nicaragua for nearly 3 years. The canal through Nicaragua has been proposed numerous times in the last 50 years. A number of issues exist with its creation and I, along with the majority of Nicaraguans, believe that it will not happen.

I recall a group of German investors who came to Nicaragua to talk, see, and mull over all things "canal". They arrived to the disappointment that the Nicaraguan government had yet to conduct any kind of Pre-feas study on the canal. In fact, they have nothing, just a general route and a lot of rhetoric. The initial Chinese backer was a mystery as well. His past business experience is shrouded in uncertainty and even his identity is unknown.

Many, myself included, see it as just another political tactic by Daniel Ortega and his Sandinista party to rile their supporters. It is very difficult to explain the paradigm of thinking that this government portrays to its people unless you have lived there, or in a country in a similar position, for some time. This is impoverished country where a very small few hold lots of power in both business and politics and employ tactics with geo-political and internal agendas depending upon what ever they see as a threat to their staying power at the time. In short, lots of lies, bluffs, and strange strategies but all without any ethical concern as long as their power is preserved.

A friend of mine down there, a man from Germany, did a set of calculations based on the proposed route, depth, and width and the amount of soil that would have to be moved. Neither the government nor the investors (or supposed investors) have even addressed the fact that to make the canal the amount of soil to be dug, moved, and deposited somewhere else is astronomical. This is a very basic aspect of the canal, one could hardly converse over a condition so necessary to the creation of a Canal as digging it and removing the unwanted soil that it speaks volumes about the other aspects of a canal which require much more sophisticated solutions.

In short, I believe it is more of a political move then a matter of international logistics and business. They are still very sour about the U.S backing of the Contra forces during their revolution that saw Somoza lose power and the Sandinista comandantes gain control over the country. Lots of paranoia, mis-trust, and fear from the people in power in regards to western powers, even though in reality the geo-political actions of Nicaragua is, at this time at least, of very low interest to the rest of the world, although they don't necessarily see it that way. In short, I think that the canal is a more a rallying point for their idea of solidarity, which they constantly preach to the Nicaraguan people, then anything else. Of course, why not call in China and spice things up a little, and give it a bit more backing at the same time.

Not sure if I made myself clear, but that is the way I see it. Any other questions about Nicaragua I would be happy to discuss, as it is a topic I enjoy discussing.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Plus there is not complete support for the project as well in country, hard to gauge how much there is really is.

 

[methionine]

Many are opposed to it because they feel it will be an ecological disaster to their lake, which is somewhat odd as they have been polluting it for decades and have never raised an issue.


As well, a point which has been touched upon in this thread, the contract stipulates that Chinese workers will build the canal, not Nicaraguans. Access to employment is a big thing there, as there is not enough,and what there is often does not pay enough.

Support is mainly from those officials who want to believe in it because they think they will receive massive bribes when it comes time to do the licenses and permits, a process which involves a lot of paper work down there.

 

[CougarKing]

Major updates:

Nicaragua Canal Construction to Begin in December, Committee Says
BY REUTERS ON NOVEMBER 20, 2014

Proposed routes for the Nicaraguan Canal. Map courtesy Hoftra.edu

MANAGUA, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Construction of Nicaragua's $50 billion Interoceanic Grand Canal, expected to rival the Panama Canal, will begin Dec. 22 after feasibility studies have been approved, the committee overseeing the project said on Thursday.

The route suggested for the 172-mile (278-km) canal was approved in July. Construction will be led by Hong Kong-based HK Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co Ltd (HKND Group). Feasibility studies were expected to be approved next month. The plan is to finish the canal within five years, with it becoming operational around 2020.

Officials said some small adjustments were being made to the overall project, including dredging stretches of a lake rather than using underwater explosives.

The proposed canal would pass through Lake Nicaragua, Central America's largest lake, and will be between 230 meters and 520 meters (755 feet to 1,706 feet) wide and 27.6 meters (90 feet) deep, HKND has said.


gCaptain

China’s Nicaragua Canal Could Spark a New Central America Revolution

Many critics thought construction of a canal across Nicaragua never would begin. Now that it’s about to, they ask how it will end—and some are asking for guns to stop it


TOLESMAIDA, Nicaragua—A hundred or so people have gathered under the intense midday sun at the main crossroads in this village on the south-westerly edge of majestic Lake Nicaragua.

Many of those who’ve come together here to protest have been loyal supporters of President Daniel Ortega since he was part of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) junta that overthrew the Somoza dynasty in 1979.

But right now these Sandinistas are absolutely enraged by plans to evict them from their lands to make way for his latest and by far most grandiose project: the Interoceanic Canal.

To hear such fervent anti-Ortega sentiment from previously devoted campesinos and compañeros is unprecedented. But the issue for them is, precisely, the matter of their land.

Construction is due to begin before the end of December, which means that lands will be taken, villages relocated.  The canal project will bisect Lake Nicaragua—Central America’s largest lake—and forcibly displace almost 300 communities, including Rama and Creole settlements from protected indigenous territories on the Caribbean coast.


The Daily Beast

 

[CougarKing]

Somehow I am little skeptical of this canal's ability to break even given competition from the current Panama Canal, which reportedly will now be able to handle larger ships in the future after some scheduled upgrades.

Reuters

Doubts deepen over Chinese-backed Nicaragua canal as work starts
Reuters

By Gabriel Stargardte

By Gabriel Stargardter
MANAGUA (Reuters) - When one of the poorest countries in the Americas and a little-known Chinese businessman said they planned to undertake one of the biggest engineering projects in history, few people took them seriously.

A year and a half after the $50 billion project to build a canal across Nicaragua was launched by President Daniel Ortega, a former Marxist guerrilla, the doubts have only grown.

Work officially began this week. But reporters hoping to see any evidence of how it would be done in a fraction of the time it took to build the much-shorter Panama Canal, or discover who would pay for it, were left with more questions than answers.

(...SNIPPED)

 

[CougarKing]

A project doomed from the start?

South China Morning Post

Doubts raised over Nicaraguan canal project as trade patterns shift
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 18 January, 2015
Jing Yang and Toh Han Shih

The proposed Nicaragua Canal may struggle to find private investors for financing as the project developer will find the case for a second waterway connecting the Pacific and the Atlantic a hard sell given current global trade patterns.

Andy Lane, partner at Container Transport International Consultancy, struggles to understand why the multibillion-dollar splurge would be a good bet for potential investors.

Lane, who has extensive experience working for shipping lines and ports, pointed out container ships are the major earners for a canal because routing alternatives are more costly for a container shipping line, which profits from regular sailing schedules and networks - similar to a bus service.

For the 100-year-old Panama Canal, which HKND plans to rival, container ships account for a quarter of the traffic but half the revenue, said Lane.

The designed width of the proposed Nicaragua Canal - of 230 to 520 metres - means it will allow only one-way traffic. Lane estimates the new canal will only be able to have 16 vessel transits a day, whereas the Panama Canal averages 34. And, the Panama Canal is not the only rival for the Nicaragua Canal. Suez Canal in the Middle East may be an even bigger competitor.

"Hong Kong is the geographical breakeven point in shipping routes between Asia and US East Coast. It takes approximately 11,000 nautical miles to reach the US East Coast going both west via Suez Canal or east via Panama Canal," said Lane.

With the global manufacturing base shifting to South and Southeast Asia, more shipping lines are expected to transit via the Suez Canal to reach the US East Coast. Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping, the world's two largest container shipping lines, have already decided to transport all Asia-US East Coast cargo via the Suez Canal in their operational alliance called 2M starting this year.

Jonathan Beard, who heads ports, logistics and transportation advisory work at US consultancy ICF International echoed Lane: "The Nicaragua canal's construction costs are substantial. Given the tendency for major projects to over-run, the final cost can be expected to significantly exceed US$50 billion. It is extremely difficult to make the financials stack up."

"A second canal will no doubt be good for shipping lines, but it's doubtful it will be good for the project financers."

 

[George Wallace]

Equal distances is one thing.  Equal Security Concerns is a completely different story.  The Suez Canal has been closed in the past.  Recent events in that part of the world could close the canal, pirates could attack shipping prior to it reaching the canal, military blockades of the Region, and a number of other events may make the Suez Canal unfeasible for shipping to safely traverse.