Pipelines, energy and natural resources

[brihard]

I wonder what the effect at the pumps will be...

The ones pumping gas into our cars will pump more. The ones pumping bitumen out of central Alberta will pump less. Oil even close to that low would be very bad for bitumen producers.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I wonder what the effect at the pumps will be...

Sadly there is a linkage to the value of the CAD.
Perfect world (never happens lol), low oil and high CAD.
Real world (always seems to happen) - low oil, low CAD, med oil, low CAD and finally, high oil and low CAD.
We are in the middle scenario.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Sadly there is a linkage to the value of the CAD.
Perfect world (never happens lol), low oil and high CAD.
Real world (always seems to happen) - low oil, low CAD, med oil, low CAD and finally, high oil and low CAD.
We are in the middle scenario.

About that pipeline announcement.

I hope Alberta expects and holds the Gov to more than an announcement of an MOU. Because to me this is the equivalent of Carney giving them a go away quote.

 

[Czech_pivo]

About that pipeline announcement.

I hope Alberta expects and holds the Gov to more than an announcement of an MOU. Because to me this is the equivalent of Carney giving them a go away quote.

I agree.
Carney has a once in a generation chance to 'bring' Alberta onside with Ottawa and make an enemy a friend. By doing so it will take a fair amount of wind out of the sails of the CPC out west if he can pull it off.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I agree.
Carney has a once in a generation chance to 'bring' Alberta onside with Ottawa and make an enemy a friend. By doing so it will take a fair amount of wind out of the sails of the CPC out west if he can pull it off.

Agreed. Carney is so close to actually being a uniting leader. If he can fix oil and firearms I think you would see the CPC go into freefall.

 

[Altair]

I agree.
Carney has a once in a generation chance to 'bring' Alberta onside with Ottawa and make an enemy a friend. By doing so it will take a fair amount of wind out of the sails of the CPC out west if he can pull it off.

Trudeau bought and built a pipeline and they still hated him for it.

I hope Carney does this because it's the best economic decision for Canada, not because he expects Albertans to suddenly embrace the LPC.

I have seen the recent polls, and they might pick up a handful of seats in Edmonton and Calgary but will still trounced in the rest of Alberta regardless of what he does.

 

[GR66]

Better hope these guys are wrong -

JP Morgan Says Oil Prices Could Plunge Into $30s by 2027​

• JP Morgan predicts the international crude benchmark, Brent, could drop into the $30s per barrel by 2027 due to an overwhelming market oversupply.
• The oil market is expected to rebalance in 2027 after the current large supply wave, including output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers in the Americas, works through the system
• The surplus next year will be 2 million bpd on average, Goldman reckons, but notes that 2026 will be the last year of the current big supply wave hitting the market.
  
  The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Goldman’s Struyven added.

JP Morgan Says Oil Prices Could Plunge Into $30s by 2027 | OilPrice.com

JP Morgan forecasts the international crude benchmark, Brent, could fall to the $30s per barrel by 2027 due to overwhelming market oversupply, while Goldman Sachs expects a 2026 average of $53 for WTI Crude and advises shorting oil now.

oilprice.com

Time to start buying up cheap Alberta oil to top up our strategic reserves (and count is as part of our 1.5% defence-related spending)

 

[MilEME09]

Oil in the $30s would lead to massive layoffs and a recession in AB, and a collapse of out provincial budget which relies heavily on resource revenue. 2027 is also an election year in AB, assuming these recalls dont work anyway. Which extremely low oil would likely be disastrous for the UCP at the polls.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Oil in the $30s would lead to massive layoffs and a recession in AB, and a collapse of out provincial budget which relies heavily on resource revenue. 2027 is also an election year in AB, assuming these recalls dont work anyway. Which extremely low oil would likely be disastrous for the UCP at the polls.

It would also crush the Russian economy, which might be the unstated goal...

 

[Czech_pivo]

Trudeau bought and built a pipeline and they still hated him for it.

I hope Carney does this because it's the best economic decision for Canada, not because he expects Albertans to suddenly embrace the LPC.

I have seen the recent polls, and they might pick up a handful of seats in Edmonton and Calgary but will still trounced in the rest of Alberta regardless of what he does.

They hated him for all the rest of his carbon laws. Slowly, selectively, Carney has chipped away at them.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It would also crush the Russian economy, which might be the unstated goal...

It would also benefit us indirectly if the US moves into Venezuela as it would slow down the revitalization of their oil sector

 

[brihard]

About that pipeline announcement.

I hope Alberta expects and holds the Gov to more than an announcement of an MOU. Because to me this is the equivalent of Carney giving them a go away quote.

There still needs to be an actual project proposal on the table. Neither Alberta, nor private industry, nor a collaboration thereof has brought one. Seems like one will be coming, but at present there’s nothing tangibly proposed to hold the federal government to.

 

[Halifax Tar]

There still needs to be an actual project proposal on the table. Neither Alberta, nor private industry, nor a collaboration thereof has brought one. Seems like one will be coming, but at present there’s nothing tangibly proposed to hold the federal government to.

Which brings me to my point. This is all just theatre.

 

[brihard]

Which brings me to my point. This is all just theatre.

Well no, policy decisions can set more favourable or less favourable conditions for such potential proposals to exist in. Very clearly this is pushing to be the former.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Well no, policy decisions can set more favourable or less favourable conditions for such potential proposals to exist in. Very clearly this is pushing to be the former.

Call me when construction starts. I tire of announcements.