Pipelines

[Brad Sallows]

Organizations representing lumber buyers in the U.S. want cheaper wood.

Not just cheaper. For some lumber applications, the species of pine exported by Canada are preferred to some of what is commonly available in the US.

 

[Blackadder1916]

I guess I have to learn more about Big Tree Farm . . .

Big Tree Farm

U.S. Lumber Coalition

U.S. Lumber Coalition is an alliance of softwood lumber producers, timberland holders and their communities that works to address Canada's unfair trade practices.

uslumbercoalition.org

The U.S. Lumber Coalition is an alliance of large and small softwood lumber producers from around the country, joined by their employees, and woodland owners, working to address Canada’s unfair lumber trade practices.

Our goal is to serve as the voice of the American lumber community, and effectively address Canada’s unfair softwood lumber trade practices.

Our Industry and Our Communities
The U.S. lumber industry is critical to the prosperity and growth of U.S. manufacturing, local communities, and state economies nationwide. Around the country, the industry is responsible for 500 manufacturing facilities operating in the sawmill, millwork, and treating sectors. These facilities support 750,000 jobs across America, including highly-skilled jobs utilizing robotics and 3D imaging, as well as high-paying skilled jobs that don’t require college degrees and 420 million acres of family-owned timberlands.

These workers, their families, timberland owners, downstream industries and communities across the country – from Maine to Montana, to Oregon, to Florida – are the reason we advocate for fair trade policies and enforcement.

---

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Those damn Canadians are a threat to the American way of life.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Big Tree Farm

U.S. Lumber Coalition

U.S. Lumber Coalition is an alliance of softwood lumber producers, timberland holders and their communities that works to address Canada's unfair trade practices.

uslumbercoalition.org

The U.S. Lumber Coalition is an alliance of large and small softwood lumber producers from around the country, joined by their employees, and woodland owners, working to address Canada’s unfair lumber trade practices ...

Versus the National Association of Home Builders ....

Canadian Softwood Lumber

The United States and Canada are long-standing trade partners in softwood lumber, which is used to build the American Dream. Yet despite U.S. reliance on Canada to fully satisfy our lumber demand, there is currently no trade agreement in place.

www.nahb.org

"... Since it was founded in the early 1940s, NAHB has served as the voice of America’s housing industry. We work to ensure that housing is a national priority and that all Americans have access to safe, decent and affordable housing, whether they choose to buy a home or rent. NAHB helps its members build communities. Each year, NAHB’s members construct about 80% of the new homes built in the United States, both single-family and multifamily ..."
... and the National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Association

Home

www.dealer.org

"... The National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Association (NLBMDA) is the recognized voice and resource of the Lumber and Building Material industry to federal legislators and regulatory agencies in Washington DC. NLBMDA provides its members the resources and education to comply with federal laws, codes, and regulations. NLBMDA identifies challenges and growth opportunities to the industry and collaborates with its Federated Association Partners to develop solutions that require national implementation ... Founded in 1917, the association represents over 6,000 member locations operating single or multiple lumber yards and component plants serving homebuilders, subcontractors, general contractors, and consumers in the new construction, repair and remodeling of residential and light commercial structures ..."

Not insignificant groups who want to see cheaper/better wood.

Those damn Canadians are a threat to the American way of life.

Right?

 

[Good2Golf]

Ontario-Quebec Dairy…

 

[The Bread Guy]

Ontario-Quebec Dairy…

View attachment 87374

Thanks for the reminder - another "Canadian Heritage Moment" protection program supported by Teams Red, Blue and Orange ....

Seen in that perspective, I can see Big US Tree Farm worried about the market being inundated the same way Big CAN Dairy worries about cheap milk/cheese headed this way.

 

[Good2Golf]

Yup. One should always be careful for what they ask…

 

[Kirkhill]

Man overboard!!!
Davos man executes Williamson.

It shouldn’t take Tony Blair to expose the myth about green jobs

Britain cannot afford to go on indulging Miliband’s “luxury beliefs” any longer; the price is simply too high

www.telegraph.co.uk

Tony Blair’s think tank, the grandly titled Institute for Global Change, has warned in a report this week that the Government is overestimating the potential for jobs to be created in “green” industries, and that they may not replace the jobs lost in British manufacturing. The report calls for Labour to adopt a “hard-headed” approach to industrial strategy which is less reliant on the green agenda.

The report will surely be welcomed in the Treasury, and indeed by anyone in the Government who is remotely serious about trying to achieve economic growth. Far from being an engine of such growth, the net zero agenda is stifling it, closing down British industry, draining public funds and increasing costs for consumers.

The Tony Blair Institute is therefore only stating the obvious when it points out that jobs created by green initiatives will not compensate for those lost in manufacturing and related industries. But it’s not only a question of jobs lost, painful though that process has been, but the cost to the taxpayer of creating “green” employment. These costs are not just direct, in the form of state subsidies to industry to become environmentally friendly, or public sector jobs in “sustainability”, but also the indirect cost of British electricity, for both producers and consumers, leaving us all worse off.

If Tony Blair is calling for a green rethink can it be long until Mark Carney decides that he is right?

LILLEY: Carney speaks out of both sides of his mouth on pipelines

Two different languages and two very different messages on a key issue for Canada's economy in the face of Trump's tariffs.

torontosun.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

Man overboard!!!
Davos man executes Williamson.

It shouldn’t take Tony Blair to expose the myth about green jobs

Britain cannot afford to go on indulging Miliband’s “luxury beliefs” any longer; the price is simply too high

www.telegraph.co.uk

If Tony Blair is calling for a green rethink can it be long until Mark Carney decides that he is right?

LILLEY: Carney speaks out of both sides of his mouth on pipelines

Two different languages and two very different messages on a key issue for Canada's economy in the face of Trump's tariffs.

torontosun.com

 

[Kirkhill]

'nudder bias confirming article from the National Post - highlighting the need for a better regulatory environment.

Why finding new paths for oil pipelines — heading east, west and north — is gaining momentum

As the U.S. kicks off a trade war with Canada, the national conversation has turned to protecting the Canadian economy and the energy sector

nationalpost.com

And the Globe and Mail's Liberal counter point - calm down, they take too long, there is no private appetite, too uncertain, not the future, mines not wells.

Opinion: Why Canada should heed its Energy Minister’s call to calm down about oil pipelines

Despite the security dangers posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, there is no way a new – or resurrected – pipeline project would be completed in less than five years

www.theglobeandmail.com

And Conrad Black's take

Conrad Black: Canada's stark choice

The coming election is shaping up to be a choice between self-destruction and future prosperity

nationalpost.com

As well as Colby Cosh

Chris Selley: Mark Carney is the human snooze button change-averse Canadians yearn for

Mainstream Canadian conservatism abhors change, even when change is desperately needed

nationalpost.com

....

My counter to the Liberal counter is the article I posted in the Arctic section and the one word that stands out from that: Connectivity.

The Liberals are saying mines not wells, roads not pipelines, pylons not railways.

I am with the Neestanan type of utility corridor solution. Plan clear rights of way to manage all of the above in one process backed by Government insurances. First give private investors a sense that the government wants these things to happen, wants them to happen quickly and wants them to last for a long time.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

And on the lumber side, sure would be nice to have that softwood lumber tariff thing sorted. Seems Big Tree Cutter in the US always seems to win out against Big Wood Consumer in keeping a grip on Canadian lumber going south. Industry’s been boned with both Red & Blue teams in Ottawa - and different coloured US government s - since the early 1980’s

I said earlier somewhere. Keep it all here. Trump claims they have all they need.

If we are going on the push for a housing boom, we'll need all we have. We don't need shortages, real or otherwise stalling projects just as they are getting started. The mills will have plenty of work keeping up to the trades. Might even restart some closed facilities. Fuck the US.

if we do want to sell outside the country and have the excess stock, I'll bet there's plenty of countries that need stock from us without sending it south.

Keeping it here, we need not worry about tariffs or US Lumber.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Ontario-Quebec Dairy…

View attachment 87374

Keep it here and tell them to diversify. Again, powdered milk and eggs made from surplus and cheese and whatever else. We send that as foreign aid instead of dollars.

If they don't like that, kill their monopoly.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I said earlier somewhere. Keep it all here. Trump claims they have all they need.

If we are going on the push for a housing boom, we'll need all we have. We don't need shortages, real or otherwise stalling projects just as they are getting started. The mills will have plenty of work keeping up to the trades. Might even restart some closed facilities. Fuck the US.

if we do want to sell outside the country and have the excess stock, I'll bet there's plenty of countries that need stock from us without sending it south.

Keeping it here, we need not worry about tariffs or US Lumber.

Except our whole forest industry is mostly aligned to the US market...

Canada’s softwood lumber industry​

The softwood lumber industry is a key pillar of Canada’s highly integrated forest sector. Demand for softwood lumber supports many rural and Indigenous communities through harvesting jobs and in-forest operations. By-products from softwood lumber production supply other industries such as pulp and paper, wood-based panels and bioenergy.

In Canada, softwood lumber is manufactured from a variety of coniferous tree species, most commonly spruce, pine and fir.

In 2020:​

• Canada was:
  • the second largest producer of softwood lumber globally
  • a leading exporter of softwood lumber globally; countries around the world relied on Canada for access to quality products
• Canada’s sawmilling industry:
  • consisted primarily of softwood lumber producers
  • directly employed about 28,000 Canadians; about 15% of Canada’s forest sector employment
• Challenges faced by sawmills, including import duties imposed by the United States (U.S.) government on Canadian softwood lumber products, had rippling effects throughout the forest sector

• Canada’s softwood lumber industry was:
  • valued at $10 billion
  • highly export-oriented with nearly 70% of production exported:
    • the majority of these exports were to the U.S., China and Japan
    • the U.S. imported over 50% of Canada’s softwood lumber production
    • about 80% of U.S. softwood lumber imports came from Canada

Canada’s softwood lumber industry - Natural Resources Canada

The softwood lumber industry is a key pillar of Canada’s highly integrated forest sector.

natural-resources.canada.ca

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Except our whole forest industry is mostly aligned to the US market...

Canada’s softwood lumber industry​

The softwood lumber industry is a key pillar of Canada’s highly integrated forest sector. Demand for softwood lumber supports many rural and Indigenous communities through harvesting jobs and in-forest operations. By-products from softwood lumber production supply other industries such as pulp and paper, wood-based panels and bioenergy.

In Canada, softwood lumber is manufactured from a variety of coniferous tree species, most commonly spruce, pine and fir.

In 2020:​

• Canada was:
  • the second largest producer of softwood lumber globally
  • a leading exporter of softwood lumber globally; countries around the world relied on Canada for access to quality products
• Canada’s sawmilling industry:
  • consisted primarily of softwood lumber producers
  • directly employed about 28,000 Canadians; about 15% of Canada’s forest sector employment
• Challenges faced by sawmills, including import duties imposed by the United States (U.S.) government on Canadian softwood lumber products, had rippling effects throughout the forest sector

• Canada’s softwood lumber industry was:
  • valued at $10 billion
  • highly export-oriented with nearly 70% of production exported:
    • the majority of these exports were to the U.S., China and Japan
    • the U.S. imported over 50% of Canada’s softwood lumber production
    • about 80% of U.S. softwood lumber imports came from Canada

Canada’s softwood lumber industry - Natural Resources Canada

The softwood lumber industry is a key pillar of Canada’s highly integrated forest sector.

natural-resources.canada.ca

Perhaps it's time to get the building industries together and hash things out. How many homes do we intend to build. How much lumber, etc are we forecasted to use. If we end up with surpluses, ask other countries if they are interested. Contrary to my normal position, I'd even sell to China, on a short term basis. Just to tweak trump's nose. If not, tell the yanks, here's what we have left over. Do you want it or not? We owe them no favours. If the bitch, tell them to talk to the hand and send them to Trump. He knows where there's lots of timber down there.

 

[foresterab]

'nudder bias confirming article from the National Post - highlighting the need for a better regulatory environment.

Why finding new paths for oil pipelines — heading east, west and north — is gaining momentum

As the U.S. kicks off a trade war with Canada, the national conversation has turned to protecting the Canadian economy and the energy sector

nationalpost.com

And the Globe and Mail's Liberal counter point - calm down, they take too long, there is no private appetite, too uncertain, not the future, mines not wells.

Opinion: Why Canada should heed its Energy Minister’s call to calm down about oil pipelines

Despite the security dangers posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, there is no way a new – or resurrected – pipeline project would be completed in less than five years

www.theglobeandmail.com

And Conrad Black's take

Conrad Black: Canada's stark choice

The coming election is shaping up to be a choice between self-destruction and future prosperity

nationalpost.com

As well as Colby Cosh

Chris Selley: Mark Carney is the human snooze button change-averse Canadians yearn for

Mainstream Canadian conservatism abhors change, even when change is desperately needed

nationalpost.com

....

My counter to the Liberal counter is the article I posted in the Arctic section and the one word that stands out from that: Connectivity.

The Liberals are saying mines not wells, roads not pipelines, pylons not railways.

I am with the Neestanan type of utility corridor solution. Plan clear rights of way to manage all of the above in one process backed by Government insurances. First give private investors a sense that the government wants these things to happen, wants them to happen quickly and wants them to last for a long time.

And as much as I want East/West pipelines across the country...start in Ontario with a bypass plan for Line 5 so that they are not economically dependent upon Michigan pipeline routes.

Heck use the opportunity to twin the TransCanada highway starting from Manitoba. Fire up the dynamite factories and get blasting because it will take a long time to get through the shield country. Anything that reduces the bottleneck of E/W Canada travel and provides viable long term options instead of the US is a positive.

For those that haven't drove it the TransCanada via Highway 11/17 at 90km/hr is about a 1,600 km trip from North Bay to Kenora. Or about 18 hours at posted limits. If the road was upgraded to a 110 km like most of the rest of the TransCanada Highway that same trip is 14.5 hours..a 20% improvement that adds up fast on every semi load.

 

[foresterab]

Except our whole forest industry is mostly aligned to the US market...

Canada’s softwood lumber industry​

The softwood lumber industry is a key pillar of Canada’s highly integrated forest sector. Demand for softwood lumber supports many rural and Indigenous communities through harvesting jobs and in-forest operations. By-products from softwood lumber production supply other industries such as pulp and paper, wood-based panels and bioenergy.

In Canada, softwood lumber is manufactured from a variety of coniferous tree species, most commonly spruce, pine and fir.

In 2020:​

• Canada was:
  • the second largest producer of softwood lumber globally
  • a leading exporter of softwood lumber globally; countries around the world relied on Canada for access to quality products
• Canada’s sawmilling industry:
  • consisted primarily of softwood lumber producers
  • directly employed about 28,000 Canadians; about 15% of Canada’s forest sector employment
• Challenges faced by sawmills, including import duties imposed by the United States (U.S.) government on Canadian softwood lumber products, had rippling effects throughout the forest sector
• Canada’s softwood lumber industry was:
  • valued at $10 billion
  • highly export-oriented with nearly 70% of production exported:
    • the majority of these exports were to the U.S., China and Japan
    • the U.S. imported over 50% of Canada’s softwood lumber production
    • about 80% of U.S. softwood lumber imports came from Canada

Canada’s softwood lumber industry - Natural Resources Canada

The softwood lumber industry is a key pillar of Canada’s highly integrated forest sector.

natural-resources.canada.ca

Japan is really only interested in premium grade wood. Maybe #1 grade or Japanese Grade. Interest in the Chinese market varies in part due to availability of wood (legal and illegal harvest) out of Russia...some of which is different dimensions again.

For comparison most of what I see in Canadian stores is #3 grade. Occasionally #2. And the sad reality is you don't need many mills going to supply Canadian demand compared to the US. Exports to Europe get talked about a bunch but between European production (who are also exporting to the US) and different certifications (they don't like Canadian production methods, we don't like theirs. For different valid reasons) it's tough to crack markets. South America, Australia/New Zealand, and Indonesia are all exporters...leaves the Middle East and India?

But if tariffs are added to the existing softwood tariffs I can easily see more mills shutting down...and it doesn't take long before the labour force has moved on/sold off the equipment fleets/relocated as tradespeople. So once they're down it's really tough to re-start. I have a mental list of mills just in Alberta and it's about 20% just due higher cost facilities/higher transportation costs. So that pool of wood being exported in future I expect to see dropping again within a couple of years...and this is due to reasons outside of the current US tariff talk.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Perhaps it's time to get the building industries together and hash things out. How many homes do we intend to build. How much lumber, etc are we forecasted to use. If we end up with surpluses, ask other countries if they are interested. Contrary to my normal position, I'd even sell to China, on a short term basis. Just to tweak trump's nose. If not, tell the yanks, here's what we have left over. Do you want it or not? We owe them no favours. If the bitch, tell them to talk to the hand and send them to Trump. He knows where there's lots of timber down there.

International commodity markets are a wonder to behold.

Based on the lowest cost principle, armies of cost accountants and supply chain managers will likely be re-routing Canadian forest products to a wide range of international customers as we speak.

It takes time though, and the prices we can command are based on a huge number of factors outside of our control.

The Canadian market is tiny in comparison, and not nearly big enough to absorb the massive daily output from our forest industries.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Perhaps it's time to get the building industries together and hash things out. How many homes do we intend to build. How much lumber, etc are we forecasted to use. If we end up with surpluses, ask other countries if they are interested. Contrary to my normal position, I'd even sell to China, on a short term basis. Just to tweak trump's nose. If not, tell the yanks, here's what we have left over. Do you want it or not? We owe them no favours. If the bitch, tell them to talk to the hand and send them to Trump. He knows where there's lots of timber down there.

That sounds like the camel's nose of corporatism. Just let businesses figure out their own markets, and try to stay out of their way. Wood products aren't a scarce and strategically vital commodity.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

If Tony Blair is calling for a green rethink can it be long until Mark Carney decides that he is right?

I get the feeling that Mr Carney decided sometime ago that he was right...always

 

[YZT580]

And as much as I want East/West pipelines across the country...start in Ontario with a bypass plan for Line 5 so that they are not economically dependent upon Michigan pipeline routes.

Heck use the opportunity to twin the TransCanada highway starting from Manitoba. Fire up the dynamite factories and get blasting because it will take a long time to get through the shield country. Anything that reduces the bottleneck of E/W Canada travel and provides viable long term options instead of the US is a positive.

For those that haven't drove it the TransCanada via Highway 11/17 at 90km/hr is about a 1,600 km trip from North Bay to Kenora. Or about 18 hours at posted limits. If the road was upgraded to a 110 km like most of the rest of the TransCanada Highway that same trip is 14.5 hours..a 20% improvement that adds up fast on every semi load.

until you get caught behind an Airstream. the twinning is a fantastic idea and long overdue; could certainly use that extra lane on the grades. The notion expressed above re: a single corridor carrying rail, road, and pipeline makes a lot of sense except the most direct route would bypass everything between Sudbury and Kenora and leave those towns hanging out to dry

 

[Rifleman62]

Speaking of Dairy: https://www.montrealgazette.com/opinion/article774193.html

Charlebois: Dairy farmers need to wake up before the system crumbles
By Dr. Sylvain Charlebois 7 Mar 25

Few topics in Canadian agriculture generate as much debate as supply management in the dairy sector. The issue gained renewed attention when U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Canada’s protectionist stance during NAFTA renegotiations in his first term, underscoring the need to reassess the system’s long-term viability.

While proponents argue that supply management ensures financial stability for farmers and shields them from global market volatility, critics contend that it inflates consumer prices, limits competition, and stifles innovation. A policy assessment titled Supply Management 2.0: A Policy Assessment and a Possible Roadmap for the Canadian Dairy Sector, conducted by researchers at Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph, sheds light on the system’s inefficiencies and presents a compelling case for reform.

Designed in the 1970s to regulate production and stabilize dairy prices, Canada’s supply management system operates through strict production quotas and high import tariffs. However, as successive trade agreements such as the USMCA, CETA, and CPTPP erode these protections, the system appears increasingly fragile. The federal government’s $3-billion compensation package to dairy farmers for hypothetical trade losses is a clear indication that the current structure is unsustainable.

Instead of fostering resilience, supply management has created an industry that is increasingly dependent on government payouts rather than market-driven efficiencies. If current trends persist, Canada could lose nearly half of its dairy farms by 2030 — regardless of who is in the White House.

Consumer sentiment is also shifting. Younger generations are questioning the sustainability and transparency of the dairy industry, particularly in light of scandals such as ButterGate, where palm oil supplements were used in cow feed to alter butterfat content, making butter harder at room temperature.

One of the most alarming findings in the policy assessment is the extent of overcapitalization in the dairy sector. Government compensation payments, coupled with rigid production quotas, have encouraged inefficiency rather than fostering innovation. Unlike their counterparts in Australia and the European Union — where deregulation has driven productivity gains — Canadian dairy farmers remain insulated from competitive pressures that could otherwise drive modernization.

A key element of modernization must involve a gradual reform of production quotas and tariffs. The existing quota system restricts farmers’ ability to respond dynamically to market signals. While quota allocation is managed provincially, harmonizing the system at the federal level would create a more cohesive market. Moving toward a flexible quota model, with expansion mechanisms based on demand, would increase competitiveness and efficiency.

Tariff policies also warrant reassessment. While tariffs provide necessary protection for domestic producers, they currently contribute to artificially inflated consumer prices. A phased reduction in tariffs, complemented by direct incentives for farmers investing in productivity-enhancing innovations and sustainability initiatives, could strike a balance between maintaining food sovereignty and fostering competitiveness.

Industrial milk prices in Canada are now the highest in the Western world, making the sector increasingly uncompetitive on a global scale.

That said, abolishing supply management outright is neither desirable nor practical. A sudden removal of protections would expose Canadian dairy farmers to aggressive foreign competition, risking rural economic stability and jeopardizing domestic food security. Instead, a balanced approach is needed — one that preserves the core benefits of supply management while integrating market-driven reforms to ensure the industry remains competitive, innovative and sustainable.

The recommendations from Supply Management 2.0 suggest that regional diversification of dairy production, value-chain-based pricing models that align production with actual market demand, and a stronger emphasis on research and development could help modernize the industry. Performance-based government compensation, rather than blanket payouts that preserve inefficiencies, would also improve long-term sustainability.

The question is no longer whether reform is necessary, but whether the dairy industry and policymakers are prepared to embrace it. A smarter, more flexible supply management framework will be crucial in ensuring that Canadian dairy remains resilient, competitive, and sustainable for future generations.

Dr. Sylvain Charlebois is the Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and co-host of The Food Professor Podcast.