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Grit defence plan out of reach: experts
'They're going to have a real problem with personnel,' army colonel says
Chris Wattie
National Post
Tuesday, June 15, 2004
TORONTO - Liberal promises on defence will not only cost more than $8 billion and take more than a decade to fulfil, but Armed Forces staff have no idea how they will raise, equip and pay for 5,000 new troops.
While the Liberals have criticized Conservative campaign pledges to spend billions on the military, experts said their own promise to add a full brigade to the army will be almost as expensive and likely more difficult to fulfil, especially with no guarantee of additional funds for the hard-pressed defence budget.
"It came as a bit of a surprise, probably, to the guys in the Department of National Defence," said Col. Howard Marsh, a former senior army staff officer. "But I'm sure the planners are going to make the Liberals' eyes water once they start doing the numbers up on this."
Prime Minister Paul Martin promised last week to add the 5,000-strong new brigade to the Forces, along with another 3,000 part-time soldiers for the army reserves. The promises, which came a week after the Tories unveiled their ambitious defence policy, also promised to emphasize the military's peacekeeping role.
The Conservatives have pledged an additional $5.5 billion over five years for the defence budget, another 27,000 troops and new transport aircraft and hybrid carriers -- ships that could act as helicopter carriers and troop transports.
Col. Marsh said the idea of a new brigade was a good one, but said it will take eight years of spending just to bring the overworked and understrength army up to a level at which the new unit could be formed -- preparations he estimated would cost about $800 million a year.
"It's one of those promises you can make and you don't have to write any cheques for another seven or eight years," he said. "It will take that long just to get up to the starting point ... before you can start thinking about adding another 5,000 people."
The Liberal promise of additional reservists, for example, was first made in 2000. So far, the army has managed to add only 750 part-time soldiers.
The Forces currently has just more than 53,000 regular force soldiers, sailors and airmen on strength, well short of its authorized total of 60,000. Attempts to recruit more troops have all but overwhelmed the military's training system, said Col. Marsh, and senior staff officers expect it will take until 2012 to bring the Forces to full strength.
"To expand to add another 5,000 trained officers, NCOs and men will take a long, long time," he said. "The units wouldn't be formed until 2015 ... and it will take longer to fill the ranks.
"Then you've got to equip them ... you've got to start putting about $800 million a year in the budget, starting this year, for seven or eight years before you even get started."
Col. Marsh said the new brigade will need about 350 armoured vehicles, including LAV III infantry carriers, Coyote reconnaissance vehicles, and those for combat engineers, artillery and unit headquarters, and another 900 trucks and other vehicles.
Support troops will also be needed, adding to the cost and the additional soldiers. "I don't think the prime minister realizes that to give the army a brigade of 5,000 you need another 3,500 people to support them," said Col. Marsh. "They're going to have a real problem with personnel."
A full army brigade will also need a new base, which Col. Marsh estimates will cost almost $2 billion, and equipment, including weapons and vehicles. "Unless the economy produces a surplus, these things aren't going to happen."
Sean Maloney, a professor at Royal Military College, said the Liberal defence platform appears to have been poorly thought out and hastily drawn up, largely in response to the Tory announcement.
He said the Liberal policy does not address the shortage of air and sea transport, which would leave the Forces with no way to get the proposed new brigade to overseas missions. "They haven't solved that at all," Mr. Maloney said. "It doesn't reflect serious defence policy."
Mr. Maloney said the reliance on the Forces' peacekeeping and "peace support" abilities reflects outdated thinking. "They're using the term 'peace' at every turn," he said.
"It's Cold War thinking ... the great Canadian peacekeeping myth is just that: a myth.
"Canada has never relied on peacekeeping to meet all its defence needs and never will."
Col. Marsh said it is possible a Liberal government may never have to honour the promises, if a long-awaited defence policy review expected this fall concludes a new brigade is not needed.
"Theoretically, he could make this announcement during the election campaign, then turn around" after the defence and foreign policy review is done and say, "it isn't needed."
'They're going to have a real problem with personnel,' army colonel says
Chris Wattie
National Post
Tuesday, June 15, 2004
TORONTO - Liberal promises on defence will not only cost more than $8 billion and take more than a decade to fulfil, but Armed Forces staff have no idea how they will raise, equip and pay for 5,000 new troops.
While the Liberals have criticized Conservative campaign pledges to spend billions on the military, experts said their own promise to add a full brigade to the army will be almost as expensive and likely more difficult to fulfil, especially with no guarantee of additional funds for the hard-pressed defence budget.
"It came as a bit of a surprise, probably, to the guys in the Department of National Defence," said Col. Howard Marsh, a former senior army staff officer. "But I'm sure the planners are going to make the Liberals' eyes water once they start doing the numbers up on this."
Prime Minister Paul Martin promised last week to add the 5,000-strong new brigade to the Forces, along with another 3,000 part-time soldiers for the army reserves. The promises, which came a week after the Tories unveiled their ambitious defence policy, also promised to emphasize the military's peacekeeping role.
The Conservatives have pledged an additional $5.5 billion over five years for the defence budget, another 27,000 troops and new transport aircraft and hybrid carriers -- ships that could act as helicopter carriers and troop transports.
Col. Marsh said the idea of a new brigade was a good one, but said it will take eight years of spending just to bring the overworked and understrength army up to a level at which the new unit could be formed -- preparations he estimated would cost about $800 million a year.
"It's one of those promises you can make and you don't have to write any cheques for another seven or eight years," he said. "It will take that long just to get up to the starting point ... before you can start thinking about adding another 5,000 people."
The Liberal promise of additional reservists, for example, was first made in 2000. So far, the army has managed to add only 750 part-time soldiers.
The Forces currently has just more than 53,000 regular force soldiers, sailors and airmen on strength, well short of its authorized total of 60,000. Attempts to recruit more troops have all but overwhelmed the military's training system, said Col. Marsh, and senior staff officers expect it will take until 2012 to bring the Forces to full strength.
"To expand to add another 5,000 trained officers, NCOs and men will take a long, long time," he said. "The units wouldn't be formed until 2015 ... and it will take longer to fill the ranks.
"Then you've got to equip them ... you've got to start putting about $800 million a year in the budget, starting this year, for seven or eight years before you even get started."
Col. Marsh said the new brigade will need about 350 armoured vehicles, including LAV III infantry carriers, Coyote reconnaissance vehicles, and those for combat engineers, artillery and unit headquarters, and another 900 trucks and other vehicles.
Support troops will also be needed, adding to the cost and the additional soldiers. "I don't think the prime minister realizes that to give the army a brigade of 5,000 you need another 3,500 people to support them," said Col. Marsh. "They're going to have a real problem with personnel."
A full army brigade will also need a new base, which Col. Marsh estimates will cost almost $2 billion, and equipment, including weapons and vehicles. "Unless the economy produces a surplus, these things aren't going to happen."
Sean Maloney, a professor at Royal Military College, said the Liberal defence platform appears to have been poorly thought out and hastily drawn up, largely in response to the Tory announcement.
He said the Liberal policy does not address the shortage of air and sea transport, which would leave the Forces with no way to get the proposed new brigade to overseas missions. "They haven't solved that at all," Mr. Maloney said. "It doesn't reflect serious defence policy."
Mr. Maloney said the reliance on the Forces' peacekeeping and "peace support" abilities reflects outdated thinking. "They're using the term 'peace' at every turn," he said.
"It's Cold War thinking ... the great Canadian peacekeeping myth is just that: a myth.
"Canada has never relied on peacekeeping to meet all its defence needs and never will."
Col. Marsh said it is possible a Liberal government may never have to honour the promises, if a long-awaited defence policy review expected this fall concludes a new brigade is not needed.
"Theoretically, he could make this announcement during the election campaign, then turn around" after the defence and foreign policy review is done and say, "it isn't needed."
