Political impacts of Ukraine war

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893596499046441423

Poland glad it bought some SK kit now

 

[Kirkhill]

Zelensky calling Trump's bluff.

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky offers to step down in exchange for peace

Volodymyr Zelensky is willing to “immediately” step down as president of Ukraine in exchange for peace or the country being granted Nato membership.

www.telegraph.co.uk

It is also in response to this

‘Impossible to end war this week’, says Zelensky​

Volodymyr Zelensky has said it would be “impossible” to end the war this week.

It comes after Karoline Leavitt, White House’s spokesman, said Donald Trump could strike a deal to end the war “this week”.

“The president, his team are very much focused on continuing negotiations with both sides of this war to end the conflict, and the president is very confident we can get it done this week,” Ms Leavitt said following the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Mike Waltz, the White House’s national security adviser, was “working around the clock” to get a deal and “end this conflict with Ukraine,” she added.

Trump is adamant that he can fix things fast. And make great deals.

Zelensky....

US and Ukraine ‘making progress’ on minerals deal​

The US and Ukraine are “making progress” on a deal which would give the US access to Ukrainian natural resources in exchange for security assistance, Mr Zelensky has said.

It comes after Mr Trump complained on Saturday that it was “not fair” that the US had been given “nothing” in return for helping Ukraine’s war effort.

“We are making progress,” Zelensky said during a press conference in Kyiv, adding that Ukrainian and US officials had been in touch about the deal earlier in the day.

General Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump’s special envoy for Russia-Ukraine, said he expected a deal to be signed this week.

Zelensky wants to meet Trump to discuss minerals deal​

Volodymyr Zelensky has said he wants to meet with Donald Trump to discuss a deal to give the US access to Ukrainian minerals and rare earths before any meeting with Putin.

To make an agreement on Ukrainian security concerns, “we need to meet and talk about it. I think that this meeting should be fair, which means before Trump meets Putin,” Zelensky said during a press conference in Kyiv.

Zelensky denies Ukraine owes US money​

Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the idea that Ukraine “owes” the US money for the military aid it has provided during the war so far.

It comes amid tensions between the two countries over signing a deal that would hand over $500bn of Ukraine’s natural resources and the US in exchange for military support.

Mr Zelensky said a deal would not work if it asked Ukraine to return the value of aid already given by Washington.

“I am not signing something that will be paid by 10 generations of Ukrainians,” Mr Zelensky said, adding that he wants a dialogue with Mr Trump.

However, he said a minerals deal was “moving forward”, while General Keith Kellogg, Mr Trump’s special envoy for Russia-Ukraine, said he expected a deal to be signed this week.

And what is this all about...

Why are Ukraine’s rare earths so important?​

Shevchenko in Donetsk, south-eastern Ukraine, may at first glance seem like another rural town destined to fall into Russian hands.

But below the surface lies something Ukraine will fight tooth and nail for: lithium deposits holding billions of dollars worth of critical minerals essential for electric vehicles, smartphones and modern energy systems.

Russian troops are just miles away, having recently captured the town of Velyka Novosilka.

But it is not just Vladimir Putin eyeing up these vast reserves. In Washington, Donald Trump has asked for “rare earths” in exchange for military aid.

A deal was proposed to Kyiv but it went far beyond Ukraine’s critical minerals, and so it was rejected by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Clearly, Mr Trump isn’t happy.

Ukraine's rare earth minerals worth more than £12 trillion​

....

Meanwhile

Witkoff: US companies will return to Russia if peace achieved​

Steve Witkoff said he expects to see developments in a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine “in the near term future”.

Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, who has emerged as the US president’s top negotiator, spoke to Vladimir Putin during a three-and-a-half-hour meeting in Moscow last week.

Mr Witkoff told CBS News Mr Trump’s “agenda is to end this carnage”, adding: “it didn’t need to happen, and it doesn’t need to continue, not, you know, another day.

“So we’re on it, at his direction, and I think there’s, you’re going to see some real positive developments in the near term future”.

Mr Witkoff added that if an agreement was reached “obviously there would be an expectation” that US companies would return to Russia.

And

MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, three sources told Reuters.

Also Moscow is willing to have Ukraine join the EU .... Why?

Why Russia wants Ukraine to join the EU

Moscow has vetoed Nato membership and foreign troops, but has its own reasons for encouraging its foe’s European ambition

www.telegraph.co.uk

This raises an important question: what’s in it for Russia? The answer may lie in Moscow’s broader objective – eventual reintegration with the West after years in isolation.

...

Mark Galeotti, director of the London-based think tank Mayak Intelligence and author of Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, argues that Ukraine’s membership would make it a “very disruptive force” in the EU – something Russia is well aware of.

(It would disrupt the Common Agricultural Policy by producing grain very cheaply, by supplying much of the EU's minerals and energy - Think of it as Europe's Alberta and Brussels as Ottawa).

Emily Ferris, a senior Russia analyst at RUSI, suggested Moscow could use Ukraine’s potential EU membership to attract investment into annexed territories.

“It’s all very well annexing this territory, but they also have to finance it,” she told The Telegraph.

“If the annexed territories were to have some sort of trade relationship with Ukraine, legal or illegal, it would give them access to the EU. That could take the pressure off Russia.”

A model already exists: Transnistria, the breakaway Moldovan region aligned with Moscow.

Transnistria’s economy is integrated with the EU despite its ties to Russia, which subsidises the region largely through pension and gas subsidies. Over 80 per cent of the statelet’s exports go to EU member states and Moldova, allowing Moscow a back door into Europe.

A similar setup could emerge in occupied Ukrainian territories, with Russian companies trading via Ukraine, allowing Moscow to profit indirectly from EU market access.

A Trojan horse in the EU?​

 

[Kirkhill]

Few dare admit it, but Trump might be right on Ukraine

His approach is brutal, but it’s not irrational. Ukraine can’t continue to fight a war Europe won’t let it win

www.telegraph.co.uk

To those who reject Donald Trump’s approach to Ukraine, I ask: what is your plan? More fighting? More death? Perhaps another summit – cocktails with Klaus – at which Western leaders can pledge their support for a cause they were never quite prepared to pay for.

Since Trump came to office there’s been much anguish about the death of the so-called “rules based order”. This system did not stop Hamas taking hostages or Netanyahu killing Gazans (and I’d wager Bibi has even less risk of seeing the inside of The Hague than Putin does).

Crucially, it did not stop Russia invading Ukraine three years ago – a crime that never occurred under Trump and which, he claims, he deterred by threatening to “hit” Moscow. In short, everything Trump is trying to fix, from Chinese aggression to drug trafficking, began under the very rules-based order we are being invited to mourn.

His approach might be brutal, but is it irrational? Trump’s claims that Ukraine started the war or Zelensky is a dictator are certainly bizarre and offensive; insisting Kyiv sell its mineral resources suggests a return to amoral imperialism.

This kind of bluff-calling has also prodded the Arabs to discuss rebuilding Gaza, terrified that Trump will transform it into a golf course instead.

But look at it from Washington’s point-of-view. This isn’t the Cold War: Russia doesn’t want to conquer the world, and bullying its neighbours poses no direct threat to the US. Trump fears China more; a domestic fiscal collapse even greater. He’s just ordered the Pentagon to cut 8 per cent from its budget, probably to spook military staff into shifting cash from their priorities (promoting trans rights in Upper Volta) to his (guarding the border).

His strategy is “ask for everything and take what you can get”, and he’ll get away with it because the US is the free world’s dominant nation. Why does it enjoy a monopoly on hard power? Because Europe can’t be bothered to do the job itself. For too long, it has defined the rules while expecting America to uphold the order, an arrangement that is neither ethical nor sustainable.

Take our increasingly ridiculous country. On the same day he mused about committing British troops to Ukraine, Keir Starmer was also reported to be reluctant to spend over 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence. We are a decadent welfare state trying to act hard in the face of Russia.

Nothing looked more absurd than those photos of porky Keir in his extra-large fatigues – normally used to camouflage a tank – playing at being a soldier at a Nato base in Estonia. We all know that, as a human rights lawyer, his first instinct isn’t to deploy the Army but to sue it.

The curse of Zelensky, a genuinely brave man, has been to encourage emulation among weaker politicians, leaders who imagine they can fight a proxy war for Western values abroad as, all the while, said values dissipate back home.

Last week, a 74-year-old woman was arrested in Scotland for standing near an abortion clinic holding a sign that read “coercion is a crime, here to talk, only if you want.” What kind of democracy is this?

I sense Canadaesque undertones in that article.

 

[Kirkhill]

Starmer out in the cold as Trump seals new special relationship

Prime Minister faces the prospect of being sidelined as a new era of US-Saudi relations beckons

www.telegraph.co.uk

The US makes up a quarter of all foreign direct investment into Saudi Arabia, which in turn has made than $750bn investments in the US, he said. “So expect a great relationship between America and Saudi Arabia to get stronger.”

US/UK

In 2023, the UK invested £494.1 billion in the US, which was 26.7% of the UK's total outward foreign direct investment (FDI). The UK is one of the world's largest outward investors.

In 2023, the United States invested £708.1 billion in the United Kingdom, which was 34.1% of the total foreign direct investment (FDI) in the UK. This is a major investment in the UK's economy.

US/Canada (the Host Country)

Canada invested something between 684 and 773 BUSD in the US in 2024
The US invested between 440 and 460 BUSD in Canada in 2024



Canada is investing similar amounts in the US as Saudi and more than the Brits.
The US is investing about as much in Canada as the Brits are in the US.

Reading this document might give some insights into what the Yanks are beating us up about.

Investment Climate Statements - Canada US

 

[Good2Golf]

Reading this document might give some insights into what the Yanks are beating us up about.

That Canada is investing 50% *more in USA than vice versa?

 

[Kirkhill]

That Canada is investing 50% in USA than vice versa?

Didn't say it was rational...

But skimming some of the early paragraphs there seems to be a lot of chatter about barriers to investment. It's almost as if the complaint is that they can't get enough of Canada....

Maybe we should be looking at Hawaii's history.

Flag of Hawaii - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

History of Hawaii - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Overthrow of the Hawaiian Kingdom - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Hawaiian Kingdom was overthrown in a coup d'état against Queen Liliʻuokalani that took place on January 17, 1893, on the island of Oahu. The coup was led by the Committee of Safety, composed of seven foreign residents (five Americans, one Scotsman, and one German and six Hawaiian Kingdom subjects of American descent in Honolulu. The Committee prevailed upon American minister John L. Stevens to call in the US Marines to protect the national interest of the United States of America. The insurgents established the Republic of Hawaii, but their ultimate goal was the annexation of the islands to the United States, which occurred in 1898.

...

More realistically the stuff they reference is things like restrictions on banking, purchasing residential land, multiple jurisdictions, digital taxes.... a lot of stuff that shows up in the news recently.

 

[Kirkhill]

That Canada is investing 50% in USA than vice versa?

Further to...

Best revenge would be to create a climate in which Canadians kept that 700 BUSD at home and invested it in Canada.

Just as a reminder that is a rate and not a sum. Canadians sending 700 BUSD per year out of the country to invest in other peoples' projects because they get better returns on the investment and have more faith in getting their money back.

There are bound to be some Canadians, presented with the right terms that would be willing to invest in HSR? Or East West Pipelines, or Energy Corridors, or Eagle Spirit or Northern Gateway or Nuclear power or Windmills....

700 BUSD annually. 20 TMX pipelines a year. Or 7 HSR projects a year.

....

It strikes me that somebody is doing something wrong.

 

[Remius]

Trudeau will attend security summit in Ukraine on 3rd anniversary of war: Zelenskyy

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is to be in Kyiv on Monday along with a dozen other world leaders as Ukraine marks the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of that country.

www.ctvnews.ca

Interesting. Looks like Canada is aligning with Europe. Early but we’ll see.

 

[suffolkowner]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893730280508162422

German election results good for Ukraine?

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893730280508162422

German election results good for Ukraine?

He is much more hawkish on Russia, and has made some deep promises of support and Military build up for Germany.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Trudeau will attend security summit in Ukraine on 3rd anniversary of war: Zelenskyy

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is to be in Kyiv on Monday along with a dozen other world leaders as Ukraine marks the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of that country.

www.ctvnews.ca

Interesting. Looks like Canada is aligning with Europe. Early but we’ll see.

Canada has the potential to fill a good portion of the of the Arsenal of Democracy.

We just need the will.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Canada has the potential to fill a good portion of the of the Arsenal of Democracy.

We just need the will.

A lame-duck PM making defence and security promises before an election is a bold political strategy... even for the Liberals.

Will be damned, we need consistency in messaging.

 

[KevinB]

Canada has the potential to fill a good portion of the of the Arsenal of Democracy.

We just need the will.

You need more than the will, you need actually industrial capacity and diversity.

BAE would be a good entity to partner with as they have a slew of products, and with a lot of their production being US based, it would offer a North American option for those who don’t want to buy American.

*Yes BAE bought up FMC and others defense arms, so many to the designs are US IP and ITAR restricted, but BAE has a lot of non US based systems.

They also make Surface Combatants (like the CSC Type 26 base) and Submarines, Nuclear and Non).

 

[Halifax Tar]

You need more than the will, you need actually industrial capacity and diversity.

BAE would be a good entity to partner with as they have a slew of products, and with a lot of their production being US based, it would offer a North American option for those who don’t want to buy American.

*Yes BAE bought up FMC and others defense arms, so many to the designs are US IP and ITAR restricted, but BAE has a lot of non US based systems.

They also make Surface Combatants (like the CSC Type 26 base) and Submarines, Nuclear and Non).

That's called the will. We can do all this, we just have to want too.

 

[Kirkhill]

You need more than the will, you need actually industrial capacity and diversity.

BAE would be a good entity to partner with as they have a slew of products, and with a lot of their production being US based, it would offer a North American option for those who don’t want to buy American.

*Yes BAE bought up FMC and others defense arms, so many to the designs are US IP and ITAR restricted, but BAE has a lot of non US based systems.

They also make Surface Combatants (like the CSC Type 26 base) and Submarines, Nuclear and Non).

https://www.baesystems.com/en/capability/ground-vehicles

CV90, CV90MkIV, CV90 IFV, CV90120, CV90 Mjolner, CV90 Armadillo,
AMPV, Bradley, M109A7, M109-52, ACV, M113
Archer, Archer Switzerland, Tridon AAA, Caiman MRAP, RG33 MRAP, Tactica APC
BvS10, BvS10 Beowulf

 

[Remius]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1893730280508162422

German election results good for Ukraine?

Not mention Vance and Musk stumped for the AFD and it seems like Germania rejected that.

 

[quadrapiper]

That's called the will. We can do all this, we just have to want too.

Not having the siren song/arm twist from south of the border working against establishing a domestic capacity (whoever owns it) won't hurt either.

Time to encourage Korean, British, German, Swedish, and French firms to build plants in Canada, as well as making room for purely domestic outfits. See if there's any defence firms in Ukraine who might benefit from being somewhere that's not alive with Russian drones or spies, especially anyone building things that will persist in value post a Russian defeat.

 

[Jarnhamar]

You need more than the will, you need actually industrial capacity and diversity.

We managed to fix a submarine that ran aground in 14 short years.

Canadian submarine returns to sea 14 years after collision​

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Not having the siren song/arm twist from south of the border working against establishing a domestic capacity (whoever owns it) won't hurt either.

Time to encourage Korean, British, German, Swedish, and French firms to build plants in Canada, as well as making room for purely domestic outfits. See if there's any defence firms in Ukraine who might benefit from being somewhere that's not alive with Russian drones or spies, especially anyone building things that will persist in value post a Russian defeat.

We can offer Chinese drones and spies!

 

[daftandbarmy]

Not having the siren song/arm twist from south of the border working against establishing a domestic capacity (whoever owns it) won't hurt either.

Time to encourage Korean, British, German, Swedish, and French firms to build plants in Canada, as well as making room for purely domestic outfits. See if there's any defence firms in Ukraine who might benefit from being somewhere that's not alive with Russian drones or spies, especially anyone building things that will persist in value post a Russian defeat.

Well, we already tried that...

Fate of $100 billion in Canadian EV projects in doubt as political landscape shifts​

As Trudeau prepares to exit and Trump takes helm in U.S., policies that helped prop up the industry are being scaled back or cancelled


But as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau prepares to exit office in March, construction on many of those projects has hardly begun, and only a fraction of the estimated $31 billion in federal support has been distributed. That, in turn, has raised questions about whether any of the proposed EV projects will be scaled back or even cancelled, especially if EV sales stutter.

Fate of $100 billion in Canadian EV projects in doubt as political landscape shifts

Trudeau steps down, Trump steps in, leaving some to wonder whether the burgeoning battery and EV supply chain will survive. Read more here

financialpost.com