And Azerbaijan is next. Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan? probably Moldavia, eventually Poland. Putin wants to re-create the Russian empire. He and his crowd control Russia. If he dies someone of his same ilk is going to take his place: there are certainly enough loud mouths spouting threats to supply at least one leader. It is no secret that their goal is to exterminate Ukraine again. Putin intends to duplicate that. Most of the Russians living in Ukraine are there because Stalin forced their move to take over farming the land whose owners he had murdered. The fact that Russia couldn't allow a fair election when they voted to partition says it all. The majority appear to favour Ukraine. Any negotiations, from what I can see, are only intended to give him time to re=build his forces to try again.
Political impacts of Ukraine war
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Brad Sallows
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Missed again. It's not about Ukrainians talking about themselves. It's about how non-Ukrainians try to frame the situation to promote their own agendas. Everything else you wrote is your own fabrication.
HavokFour
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Azerbaijan isn't too thrilled with Russia as of late.
tvpworld.com
Baku could lift arms embargo on Ukraine, media reports
Azerbaijan’s once warm relations with Russia are cooling fast.
tvpworld.com
Brad Sallows
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The US is a democracy that decided as a democracy to invade Iraq. That turned into a shit-show. It isn't necessary to delve any deeper into those two facts to recognize that appeals to what democracies decide are insufficient.
If the US invaded Canada, Canadians could righteously defend ourselves. If there isn't an obvious practical path to success, what would be the point? What are the differences between governance from Ottawa or Washington that would be worth dying for; more importantly, what are the differences that would justify compelling others to risk death or lesser injury with unlikely prospects for success? Now shift the frame to Ukraine and Russia. For each person who considers the questions, the answers might be different - there is always going to be some threshold at which the differences are intolerable. But try to keep emotion out of the analysis.
Brad Sallows
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Works both ways. Ukraine could use a pause, too. Is European NATO ready for a fight? If not, them too.
The best CoA is to demonstrate to Putin he will lose before he tries. The demonstration has to be convincing in terms Putin has a natural inclination to grasp and absorb. Statements of intent won't do. Material strength is needed.
Your remarks suggest the death of civilization. Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler all worked from the same premise: might is right. The Magna Carta would never have been penned if people hadn't fought for it. The U.S. would be part of the British Commonwealth and there would still be a country called Rhodesia. Nations are not founded on power. They are founded upon common goals and supported by other nations not necessarily with the same goals but with the same commitment to self-determination. It is either that or they are no better than serfs dependent upon their lords for their very existence. That is what you appear to be advocating
QV
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The other notable moment was when all EU leaders were laughing and mocking him (much to Putin's pleasure I'm sure)... a short while later they all look like pigs pissing, unprepared and dependent on Russian energy as Russia rolled into Ukraine again... now, very late, they (EU) are still using Russian energy but drastically reducing dependance and trying to invest in security.
Imagine if they had listened back in 2018. Would that have been enough to persuade Russia not to invade in 2022?
We can't know for certain, but it's arguable that crippling their energy industry and amassing military power in EU would have added to the deterrence (which at the time was weak).
Brad Sallows
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"For each person who considers the questions, the answers might be different - there is always going to be some threshold at which the differences are intolerable."
Pol Pot, Stalin, and Hitler are all examples of extreme thresholds. If you read again the piece I quoted, I did not advocate unlimited submission.
Have you ever read the US Declaration of Independence? It talks about thresholds and when exceptional action might be merited and about people having governments, not governments having people. Nothing in my doctrine precludes either fighting real tyranny, or being pragmatic about the tradeoffs between war and peace.
McG
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So, Putin’s tyranny should not be resisted by Ukraine because living oppressed would be less costly than fighting to live free? That’s the argument we are getting here right?
Can’t help but feel there is hypocrisy from some making this case. It seems to be that tyranny must be resisted, except when you are facing a real tyrant. Storm the capital if someone asks you to wear a mask or get a vaccine. But if someone invades your country, targets civilians, and ethnically cleanses conquered regions then you’d better just roll-over cause that guy might hurt someone.
This is not the way.
Can’t help but feel there is hypocrisy from some making this case. It seems to be that tyranny must be resisted, except when you are facing a real tyrant. Storm the capital if someone asks you to wear a mask or get a vaccine. But if someone invades your country, targets civilians, and ethnically cleanses conquered regions then you’d better just roll-over cause that guy might hurt someone.
This is not the way.
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Trump isn't worth listening to.
Europe is a special case. They've been at war with each other for millennia. There are constantly shifting interest groups and alliances and belief systems.
I did some low level legal work for a NATO reserve organization and it quickly became apparent that Western Europe exists in two blocks: the Nordic block (which includes the UK) and the Latin block (which includes France, Italy and most things with Roman roots. The northerners are practical and business focused the southerners more laid back and independent thinkers. If you want to build a consensus amongst Europeans then you have to be able to leverage what motivates each side. There's a lot of give and take there - you have to feel your way around for the red lines which a given side won't cross and find the positions that have been put up as bargaining chips that can and will be traded away.
I left out the Americans. They were there too and in short, they're the bull in the china shop. They ain't subtle and usually leave frustrated very quickly. It takes a very special American to feel his way through the hurdles. At my level they didn't exist but at the higher levels, occasionally you get a good one.
I can't say that the Obama administration was particulalry good because their aim for improved defence wasn't strong enough and their powers of persuasion weak. There was little post 2014 leadership that got any traction. Trump is a bully and if there is one thing the two European factions can agree on its that American bullies are assholes and won't be listened to; heels get dug in all around. It did get them to start turning more to each other because dependence on the US was looking tenuous. Biden - well. What can I say. It was Biden and I'm not so sure he understood what his advisors were actually doing. It reinforced the fact to the Europeans that they needed to turn more to each other. The "second coming" is a bit of a shock to everyone - IMHO because it shows just how desperate and polarized the American public is. I don't think that anyone, including in the US administration, has a clue from day-to-day where things are heading next. Uncertainty is never a good thing in world politics and there are nasty actors out there just itching to take advantage of it.
When you say if they'd listened to him in 2018. The problem is when there is a constant stream of drivel coming out of his mouth when do you say "Eureka! That one's a golden nugget!" and hang your own policies on it. IMHO, European defence policies are maturing to relying on their own resources. They have a long way to go. As have we.
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Trump isn't worth listening to.
Europe is a special case. They've been at war with each other for millennia. There are constantly shifting interest groups and alliances and belief systems.
I did some low level legal work for a NATO reserve organization and it quickly became apparent that Western Europe exists in two blocks: the Nordic block (which includes the UK) and the Latin block (which includes France, Italy and most things with Roman roots. The northerners are practical and business focused the southerners more laid back and independent thinkers. If you want to build a consensus amongst Europeans then you have to be able to leverage what motivates each side. There's a lot of give and take there - you have to feel your way around for the red lines which a given side won't cross and find the positions that have been put up as bargaining chips that can and will be traded away.
I left out the Americans. They were there too and in short, they're the bull in the china shop. They ain't subtle and usually leave frustrated very quickly. It takes a very special American to feel his way through the hurdles. At my level they didn't exist but at the higher levels, occasionally you get a good one.
I can't say that the Obama administration was particulalry good because their aim for improved defence wasn't strong enough and their powers of persuasion weak. There was little post 2014 leadership that got any traction. Trump is a bully and if there is one thing the two European factions can agree on its that American bullies are assholes and won't be listened to; heels get dug in all around. It did get them to start turning more to each other because dependence on the US was looking tenuous. Biden - well. What can I say. It was Biden and I'm not so sure he understood what his advisors were actually doing. It reinforced the fact to the Europeans that they needed to turn more to each other. The "second coming" is a bit of a shock to everyone - IMHO because it shows just how desperate and polarized the American public is. I don't think that anyone, including in the US administration, has a clue from day-to-day where things are heading next. Uncertainty is never a good thing in world politics and there are nasty actors out there just itching to take advantage of it.
When you say if they'd listened to him in 2018. The problem is when there is a constant stream of drivel coming out of his mouth when do you say "Eureka! That one's a golden nugget!" and hang your own policies on it. IMHO, European defence policies are maturing to relying on their own resources. They have a long way to go. As have we.
Good, bad or indifferent, you do yourself a significant disservice if you ignore the words and deeds of anybody that can make the weather and change the environment.
HavokFour
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For those unaware, the land Trump and Putin wants Ukraine to give up includes the entire Fortress Belt in Donetsk. Losing these fortifications would make Kharkiv very vulnerable because the ground behind those fortifications is extremely favorable to an assaulting force, and very difficult to defend from (the next best terrain for fortifications is hundreds of km further back) and will likely result in the rest of that side of the Dnipro falling to Russia rather quickly. This upcoming Alaska meeting will not result in a just or lasting peace, and probably was never meant to.
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It will result in peace in our time.
Though the meeting should probably be on September 30th.
QV
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Trump isn't worth listening to.
Europe is a special case. They've been at war with each other for millennia. There are constantly shifting interest groups and alliances and belief systems.
I did some low level legal work for a NATO reserve organization and it quickly became apparent that Western Europe exists in two blocks: the Nordic block (which includes the UK) and the Latin block (which includes France, Italy and most things with Roman roots. The northerners are practical and business focused the southerners more laid back and independent thinkers. If you want to build a consensus amongst Europeans then you have to be able to leverage what motivates each side. There's a lot of give and take there - you have to feel your way around for the red lines which a given side won't cross and find the positions that have been put up as bargaining chips that can and will be traded away.
I left out the Americans. They were there too and in short, they're the bull in the china shop. They ain't subtle and usually leave frustrated very quickly. It takes a very special American to feel his way through the hurdles. At my level they didn't exist but at the higher levels, occasionally you get a good one.
I can't say that the Obama administration was particulalry good because their aim for improved defence wasn't strong enough and their powers of persuasion weak. There was little post 2014 leadership that got any traction. Trump is a bully and if there is one thing the two European factions can agree on its that American bullies are assholes and won't be listened to; heels get dug in all around. It did get them to start turning more to each other because dependence on the US was looking tenuous. Biden - well. What can I say. It was Biden and I'm not so sure he understood what his advisors were actually doing. It reinforced the fact to the Europeans that they needed to turn more to each other. The "second coming" is a bit of a shock to everyone - IMHO because it shows just how desperate and polarized the American public is. I don't think that anyone, including in the US administration, has a clue from day-to-day where things are heading next. Uncertainty is never a good thing in world politics and there are nasty actors out there just itching to take advantage of it.
When you say if they'd listened to him in 2018. The problem is when there is a constant stream of drivel coming out of his mouth when do you say "Eureka! That one's a golden nugget!" and hang your own policies on it. IMHO, European defence policies are maturing to relying on their own resources. They have a long way to go. As have we.
At the time POTUS 45 was speaking to the EU with the knowledge of the daily presidential intel briefs.
As far as America being bullies, it is apparent that is what it takes to move the needle with many of these weak sauce governments (tariffs, 'you'll go it alone if you don't pony up'). Because only now we are seeing intent and progress.
You don't like the tough love now, but later down the road you'll thank daddy (NATO chief)
PrairieFella
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Didn't his briefing team recently change the format of the PDB so that it looks like Fox News so he pays attention?My understanding from the insider information from his first administration is that he doesn't read those briefs.
Brad Sallows
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I'll have to stress this because so many people are determined to miss it: it should not simply be resisted at any cost without regard for the degree of illiberalism. "Better to die on your feet than live on your knees" is a stirring bit of rhetoric, but the gap between Ukraine and Russia is nothing like the gap between Canada and Ukraine. If I were a Ukrainian farmer, I'd probably care a lot less than if I were a Ukrainian public intellectual. And if I were the farmer, I might not care to put my life on the line for the latter.
KevinB
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I’d suggest the Ukrainian Farmer has so much more to lose. They don’t have the mobility to exit and leave the areas like the Public figures in Ukraine, the rest would suffer under the reforming USSR, so perhaps better dead than red for them is less than just a lofty ideal.
McG
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No, I get it. Resist "tyranny" but don't resist tyranny because that could get you killed.
… of course, rolling over for tyranny can also get you killed when that particular government is also ethnically cleansing the regions & conscripting undesirables into its mean-wave army.
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