Has Trump’s Rhetorical Change Meant Anything Concrete?
Last big question of the week, and while I do not have an answer, regular readers will know my suspicions. It has now been
almost two weeks since Trump made his verbal pivot about the war. The pivot was based on
Trump’s hurt feelings about Putin not loving him in the morning and the fact that Russia was not doing as well as he expected.
At that time, people let their imaginations run away into fantasies. There was talk about the US handing over Tomahawk missiles, or even JASSMs to Ukraine, of the US and Ukraine signing a $90 billion arms deal, of the US helping Ukraine win the war.
And guess what—Trump has now gone silent on the issue for a week. The
stories are now leaking that the Tomahawks are not on their way, and no new arms deal has been announced. And even if a deal is announced soon—it would take many months before the first weapons started to appear.
The one report (which people have drastically overrated) was that the
Administration had authorized some intelligence sharing to aid Ukrainian ranged strike. It was the typical story that the Trump administration leaks when they want to
seem to be supportive of Ukraine. No specifics were mentioned, it seems that actually the process for sharing the intelligence is has not been specified, and, of course, no new weapons were part of the deal.
In other words, at best this seems to be the Trump administration taking the position of the Biden administration. But actually it means nothing, as the DOD still seems to have veto over what Ukraine gets—which was de facto the position before this supposed change.
Moreover—its hard to see how much value US intelligence would bring here. The Ukrainians have already shown that they have a strong grasp of the Russian energy sector and started disassembling it themselves.
This whole thing smells like an attempt of the Trump administration to put itself in line to claim credit for Ukrainian success, without actually helping Ukraine.
So far, it is hard to find one concrete policy change that has emerged from the pivot. And guess who understands that? Vladimir Putin does.
It was fascinating to see how the Russian dictator openly stated that the US would not send Tomahawks to Ukraine; as if he knew.
This is how the New York Times, reported Putin’s remarks.
Mr. Putin, in an annual appearance at a Russian foreign-policy conference on Thursday, sought to project confidence that, in the end, Mr. Trump would decide against providing the missiles to Ukraine. He described the American president as someone who “loves to shock a little” but who also “knows how to listen.”
If the United States did send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, Mr. Putin said, the move would bring about “a qualitatively new stage of escalation.” But he went on to predict that Mr. Trump would eventually reject Ukraine’s request in part because of the United States’ inward turn under the Trump administration.
People need to face reality. Trump does not want to help Ukraine and he does not want to break with Putin. He desperately wants to work with Putin, he just also wants Putin’s love and respect (and Putin was careful to lather Trump with praise this week). That is where we are.
Hoping Trump will fundamentally change that policy is a massive risk and wastes time. Stop it.
