Political impacts of Ukraine war

[HavokFour]

No sign Russia will follow Ukraine's ceasefire, so I doubt theirs's will be observed by Ukraine.

Ukraine accuses Russia of breaking unilateral ceasefire

The Russian strikes came just hours before a unilaterally proposed Ukrainian ceasefire and days before Russia itself intends to observe a ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned "cynical, vile" attacks by Russia.

www.dw.com

EDIT: Russia has also been pulling large quantities of AD systems from other regions to beef up Moscow. So there may be some large holes Ukraine can exploit for some huge hits elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2052024987565879678

 

[HavokFour]

No sign Russia will follow Ukraine's ceasefire, so I doubt theirs's will be observed by Ukraine.

Ukraine accuses Russia of breaking unilateral ceasefire

The Russian strikes came just hours before a unilaterally proposed Ukrainian ceasefire and days before Russia itself intends to observe a ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned "cynical, vile" attacks by Russia.

www.dw.com

EDIT: Russia has also been pulling large quantities of AD systems from other regions to beef up Moscow. So there may be some large holes Ukraine can exploit for some huge hits elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2052024987565879678

Officially going to be a bad day for a parade.

President Zelenskyy Announces Symmetrical Response to Russian Ceasefire Violations

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the nation on Wednesday, May 6, stating that Russia has continued its military operations.

united24media.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Kremlin Rings Moscow With 40 New Air Defense Systems as Fear of Ukrainian Drones Grows

Moscow bolsters defenses with over 40 new Pantsir-S1 systems, reviving Soviet-era tactics to counter potential Ukrainian drone strikes.

united24media.com

40 new targets for Zelensky.

Don't attack the parade. Attack the defences.

 

[Altair]

Kremlin Rings Moscow With 40 New Air Defense Systems as Fear of Ukrainian Drones Grows

Moscow bolsters defenses with over 40 new Pantsir-S1 systems, reviving Soviet-era tactics to counter potential Ukrainian drone strikes.

united24media.com

40 new targets for Zelensky.

Don't attack the parade. Attack the defences.

Do both.

 

[Altair]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-9.7193061

Russia and Ukraine confirmed Friday that they had agreed to a three-day ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump that will run from May 9 to May 11.

Trump's announcement on Truth Social also ‌said the two countries, locked in more than four years of conflict, would exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each.

I am displeased.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Do both.

So far, UKR's promised to not hit Red Square on parade day ...

Ukraine officially allows Russia to hold Victory Day parade in Moscow: Zelenskyy signs decree

Ukraine has officially authorised Russia to hold its Victory Day parade as part of the ceasefire arrangement. [Victory Day is a Russian holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, celebrated on 9 May – ed.]

www.pravda.com.ua

... specifically, according to the declaration (links to UKR language version - Google translation below):

No. 374/2026​

About the parade in Moscow
Taking into account numerous requests, for the humanitarian purpose outlined in the negotiations with the American side on May 8, 2026, I decide:

1. To allow a parade to be held in Moscow (Russian Federation) on May 9, 2026.

For the duration of the parade (from 10 a.m. Kyiv time on May 9, 2026), the territorial square of Red Square will be excluded from the plan for the use of Ukrainian weapons.

Red Square Square:
55.754413 37.617733
55.755205 37.619181
55.753351 37.622854
55.752504 37.621538

2. This Decree shall enter into force on the date of its signing.

President of Ukraine V. ZELENSKYI
May 8, 2026

 

[Altair]

So far, UKR's promised to not hit Red Square on parade day ...

Ukraine officially allows Russia to hold Victory Day parade in Moscow: Zelenskyy signs decree

Ukraine has officially authorised Russia to hold its Victory Day parade as part of the ceasefire arrangement. [Victory Day is a Russian holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, celebrated on 9 May – ed.]

www.pravda.com.ua

... specifically, according to the declaration (links to UKR language version - Google translation below):

I am displeased.

 

[FJAG]

So far, UKR's promised to not hit Red Square on parade day ...

Ukraine officially allows Russia to hold Victory Day parade in Moscow: Zelenskyy signs decree

Ukraine has officially authorised Russia to hold its Victory Day parade as part of the ceasefire arrangement. [Victory Day is a Russian holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, celebrated on 9 May – ed.]

www.pravda.com.ua

... specifically, according to the declaration (links to UKR language version - Google translation below):

That is a terrific political statement. Ukraine "permits" Russia to hold a WW2 Victory parade without interference. Brilliant.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I am displeased.

If I was USSR 2.0, I’d check what’s, say, 200 m or so around that patch UKR mentioned as being home free