Political impacts of Ukraine war

[The Bread Guy]

There's increasing signs that full mobilization may be on the horizon with the Kremlin now referring to the "SMO" as an actual war more and more openly.

Kremlin Suddenly Started Calling Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine a “War.” Here’s What It Means

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov now calls the Ukraine invasion a "full-scale war," a shift from "special military operation."

united24media.com

If Peskov doesn’t fall out a window or decide to spend more time with his family, that’s for sure word from above. Let’s see if the USSR 2.0 usual suspect commentariat pick up that ball and run with it.

 

[Altair]

Who is Ukraine's Mykhailo Fedorov, the dismissed defence minister?

The tech-savvy reformer is the last remaining minister to have held positions in all of Volodymyr Zelenskiy's governments.

www.reuters.com

KYIV, July 16 (Reuters) - The sacking of Ukraine's popular defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, only six months after his appointment, prompted rare wartime protests in cities across the country on Thursday.
The tech-savvy 35-year-old reformer is the last remaining minister to have held positions in all of Zelenskiy's governments, remaining close to the president since his election in 2019. Parliament is expected to vote on Thursday on his replacement by Interior Minister Ihor ‌Klymenko; it was not clear whether Fedorov would get another government job.

His supporters pointed to his role in turning battlefield momentum in Ukraine's favour this year, through ramping up drone purchases and a crucial intervention to cut Russian units off from Starlink internet services.
But his attempts to overhaul the sprawling defence ministry and armed forces created tensions with armed forces chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, and he has failed to tackle longtime problems around military conscription. Zelenskiy did not give a specific reason for his decision but told reporters he expected "greater unity" between the defence ministry and military leaders.

I think Zelensky just stepped in it.

Fedorov outside of the tent is just a younger more successful Zelensky.

 

[HavokFour]

Who is Ukraine's Mykhailo Fedorov, the dismissed defence minister?

The tech-savvy reformer is the last remaining minister to have held positions in all of Volodymyr Zelenskiy's governments.

www.reuters.com

I think Zelensky just stepped in it.

Fedorov outside of the tent is just a younger more successful Zelensky.

Ukrainian politics are hella' confusing, even when you have a trusted local try and explain things to you. Russian disinfo going wild isn't helping either.

In the mean time while this mess gets sorted SBU Major General Yevhen Khmara will sit in as acting defense minister until a more permanent one is confirmed.

https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-appoints-sbu-chief-yevhen-khmara-acting-defense-minister/

Very capable hands if he ends up being the confirmation pick.

 

[HavokFour]

Fedorov declined two offers, a role as an advisor and the role of prime minister.

His conflict with Syrskyi was that bad, and why Zelensky had to let one of them go.

[The Economist]Ukraine’s reformist defence minister is ousted​

Archive

 

[Altair]

Fedorov declined two offers, a role as an advisor and the role of prime minister.

His conflict with Syrskyi was that bad, and why Zelensky had to let one of them go.

[The Economist]Ukraine’s reformist defence minister is ousted​

Archive

When the choice is reformer that has drone warfare and has Ukraine moving forward for the first time since the 2023 counter offensive and the old school guy, soviet trained, pick the reformer.

 

[HavokFour]

When the choice is reformer that has drone warfare and has Ukraine moving forward for the first time since the 2023 counter offensive and the old school guy, soviet trained, pick the reformer.

There's always option 3, choose neither. He originally wanted to remove both because of the aforementioned conflict the two were having.

[FT]Zelenskyy considers sacking commander-in-chief as protests swell​

Archive

Syrsky was already in hot water for the nasty business that has been going on in the 155th/425th, the 424th in particular has close ties to the CIC and receive notable preferential treatment because of it. On top of already being deeply unpopular with Ukrainian population in general.

Ukraine’s largest assault regiment is under investigation over allegations of torturing its own recruits and at least 26 noncombat deaths — Meduza

Ukraine has suspended Lieutenant Colonel Yuriy Harkavyi, commander of the 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skala,” pending a probe launched after a Babel investigation into torture and the deaths of several servicemen that the military classified as “unrelated to combat.” The General Staff of...

meduza.io

155th Brigade Soldiers Report Abuse After Transfer to Skelya Command

In connection of the public criticism of 425th Assault Regiment Skala by Serhiy Sternenko, a Ukrainian blogger and advisor to the Minister of Defense, after the counter-attack near Pokrovsk in Donetsk…

militaryland.net

Commander of Ukraine's 155th brigade detained in kidnapping, murder case

On July 11, Ukraine's General Staff announced that Luchanov and other members of the brigade had been charged with illegal detention and intentional murder. The military initially said Luchanov had abandoned his unit without authorization during the investigation and was at large.

kyivindependent.com

Skelya Regiment dismisses connection to case against ex-155th Brigade commander Luchanov

The 425th Separate Assault Regiment

english.nv.ua

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078493184900915641

 

[GR66]

The Russians (and Ukrainians) are making use of decoys of high-value targets to deceive enemy drones.

Russia’s decoy tactic aims to blunt Ukraine’s relentless drone strikes

Russian forces have grown increasingly willing to sacrifice a fake air defense system rather than a real one, a pattern that keeps surfacing in drone strike footage even as Ukrainian units continue to celebrate each new video as a confirmed

defence-blog.com

It's not a new concept and there were some major deception operations undertaken by the Allies in WWII that were of massive scale.

Operation Fortitude was the Allies operation to convince the Germans that the invasion would target either Pas de Calais or Norway rather than Normandy and Operation Bertram was Montgomery's deception operation in advance of 2nd El Alamein.

It seems to me if we really believe Russia may try to invade the Baltic States that similar tactics at scale there would be a major advantage in the initial defensive phase of an invasion. Does the Canadian Army have any current capabilities in this area?

 

[dapaterson]

My favourite WWII deception was Operation Mincemeat, but I'm a sucker for madcap Monty Python inspired West End / Broadway musicals that involve Ian Fleming, a corpse, a submarine, and KPop Nazis.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Even considering the source, quite the sweeping claim.

Every Russian Orthodox Priest Abroad Is Linked to Russian Intelligence, Former HUR Official Says

A former Ukrainian intelligence official claims every Russian Orthodox priest abroad is linked to Russian intelligence, calling the ROC an influence network.

united24media.com

Former Ukrainian intelligence deputy says Russian Orthodox Church runs espionage and propaganda across Europe | Ukraine news - #Mezha

Former GUR deputy Major General Ilya Pavlenko warned at a forum that the Russian Orthodox Church in Europe conducts espionage and spreads Kremlin propaganda, urging Ukraine to strengthen church and cultural ties with its diaspora.

mezha.net

 

[HavokFour]

Even considering the source, quite the sweeping claim.

Every Russian Orthodox Priest Abroad Is Linked to Russian Intelligence, Former HUR Official Says

A former Ukrainian intelligence official claims every Russian Orthodox priest abroad is linked to Russian intelligence, calling the ROC an influence network.

united24media.com

Former Ukrainian intelligence deputy says Russian Orthodox Church runs espionage and propaganda across Europe | Ukraine news - #Mezha

Former GUR deputy Major General Ilya Pavlenko warned at a forum that the Russian Orthodox Church in Europe conducts espionage and spreads Kremlin propaganda, urging Ukraine to strengthen church and cultural ties with its diaspora.

mezha.net

It's not really even a secret that the Russian Orthodox Church is a branch of Russian intelligence, this has been known long before 2014.

 

[HavokFour]

Crossposting because this is due to the strikes inside and around the Black Sea and Caspian.

Post in thread 'Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread'

Yesterday at 17:31

China's demand destruction via renewable and their 1.4 billion barrels in reserve has helped them weather the events happening in the Hormuz Strait. This will make it a little more harder for them.

CPC stops accepting Kazakh oil due to attacks on tankers, sources say

The Caspian ‌Pipeline Consortium has stopped receiving oil from Kazakhstan after suspending loadings on Monday due to attacks on oil tankers at its Black Sea terminal, three industry sources said.

www.reuters.com

• HavokFour

 

[Altair]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/zelenskyy-syrskyi-ukraine-army-drapatyi-9.7278445

And now general Syrskyi is fired.

Shitshow confirmed.

 

[HavokFour]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/zelenskyy-syrskyi-ukraine-army-drapatyi-9.7278445

And now general Syrskyi is fired.

Shitshow confirmed.

This is being taken as a positive by the Ukrainians, both civilian and military.

There's a reason why he has the nicknames "Butcher" and "Captain 200".

 

[Altair]

This is being taken as a positive by the Ukrainians, both civilian and military.

There's a reason why he has the nicknames "Butcher" and "Captain 200".

He should have been the only one fired.

 

[HavokFour]

He should have been the only one fired.

I don't disagree, but I am interested to see who will be chosen to replace him.

He was probably the biggest linchpin keeping the old soviet tactics in the AFU, the ones that threw the tolerance of casualties to the winds since he was given the job in 2024.

EDIT: Apparently this is who's subbing in.

Mykhailo Drapatyi - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[HavokFour]

I don't disagree, but I am interested to see who will be chosen to replace him.

He was probably the biggest linchpin keeping the old soviet tactics in the AFU, the ones that threw the tolerance of casualties to the winds since he was given the job in 2024.

EDIT: Apparently this is who's subbing in.

Mykhailo Drapatyi - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

His first command was as a Major, commander of second battalion, 72nd Mechanized Brigade. His battalion was deployed to eastern Ukraine in April 2014, taking part in the Battle of Mariupol in May that year. On 9 May, armed separatists attempted to seize the Mariupol police department. Drapatyi's battalion was sent with armoured vehicles to free hostages and reinforce the units that were defending the station. Leading from the head of a column of four armoured vehicles, his BMP crashed through a barricade. Videos of this were broadcast on international news.

The new Commander in Chief of the AFU in action.

 

[KevinB]

When the choice is reformer that has drone warfare and has Ukraine moving forward for the first time since the 2023 counter offensive and the old school guy, soviet trained, pick the reformer.

I agree with you, the more interesting aspect to me is what happens now, and if the ‘showdown’ was more for showmanship to sack the Butcher.

Syrskyi was never my favorite and I thought he was a major mistake when first appointed. My question is more along the line if Zelenskyy (and/or others in the Ukrainian government) decided to orchestrate his (Syrskyi) removal as a public groundswell - as opposed to Z dropping the hammer.

 

[Kirkhill]

I agree with you, the more interesting aspect to me is what happens now, and if the ‘showdown’ was more for showmanship to sack the Butcher.

Syrskyi was never my favorite and I thought he was a major mistake when first appointed. My question is more along the line if Zelenskyy (and/or others in the Ukrainian government) decided to orchestrate his (Syrskyi) removal as a public groundswell - as opposed to Z dropping the hammer.

A Ukrainian continuation of Rumsfeld's observation: "You fight with the army you have?"

Syrskyi represented the bulk of the Soviet trained army that Zelensky had.

Zaluzhny was not part of that Sovietized cadre. He was effective with Ukraine's new army but had no friends in its old army. He thought western.

While Syrskyi attempted to hold the line of contact adding new toys to old-school methods a guy name of Budanov, in Intelligence, was rewriting the rules with his new "reconnaissance" troops, his marines, his USVs, his UAVs and his campaigns in the Black Sea and in Russia.

Zaluzhny was sacrificed but Budanov was retained and is now Zelensky's right hand man as Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.

My money is on Budanov being the architect behind the current advances and that both Syrskyi and Fedorov were expendable. I am willing to bet that Fedorov was working to implement Budanov's plan and the Syrskyi was digging his heels in.

Kyrylo Budanov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Office of the President of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

...

Meanwhile Syrskyi's replacement, as noted by @HavokFour , seems to be more of a "cavalry" soldier, even if he is a para. He seems like he might be less risk averse and more offensively inclined. And more open to reforms.

 

[GR66]

Previously suspected, but now confirmed:

Pentagon’s top general confirms historic Ukrainian dogfight win

A Ukrainian F-16 pilot did something no American-made fighter jet had confirmed doing before in this war: shoot down a Russian warplane in air-to-air combat. General Dan Caine, the four-star Air Force officer who serves as Chairman of the Joint

defence-blog.com

A Ukrainian F-16 pilot did something no American-made fighter jet had confirmed doing before in this war: shoot down a Russian warplane in air-to-air combat. General Dan Caine, the four-star Air Force officer who serves as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and holds the highest military rank in the United States, told the Senate Appropriations Committee that the milestone marks how far Ukraine’s air defenses have come since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

“I want to highlight the incredible work that the Ukraine industrial base is doing as they scale their own capabilities,” Caine said, describing a defense buildup that now stretches from ground-based missile systems to fighter jets patrolling the skies.

Caine pointed to the F-16 shootdown as the clearest evidence of that progress, calling it the country’s first confirmed air-to-air kill with the jet.