Political impacts of Ukraine war

[Czech_pivo]

There's enough tinfoil-hattery among the claims that I'm gonna wait a while for the current Starlink story to resemble truth. I highly doubt this is going to be the one time for sure that a bunch of people got a highly controversial story exactly right.

Meanwhile it's a fact that Musk was at one time a hero for making Starlink quickly available to Ukraine, and that Starlink wouldn't exist without him (and there is not much evidence a bunch of other potential providers were lined up to deploy similar highly novel capabilities). So many people revile him for one particular political choice, and/or seem to think that all his immense net worth was unfairly obtained and is squirreled away somewhere doing nothing instead of embedded in productive uses highly valuable to the human community, and bitch and complain when he isn't doing exactly what they think he should be doing with his privately controlled enterprises. If only all those people with big ideas for spending money had big ideas for making it, so they could do their own work instead of seeking well-paid jobs agitating for spending someone else's.

Sadly his dozen plus kids statistically will end up like most trust fund kids and piss all of Musk’s wealth away by the second generation after he’s gone.

 

[FJAG]

Meanwhile it's a fact that Musk was at one time a hero for making Starlink quickly available to Ukraine, and that Starlink wouldn't exist without him (and there is not much evidence a bunch of other potential providers were lined up to deploy similar highly novel capabilities). So many people revile him for one particular political choice,

Yesterday's hero; today's goat. You live and die by the choices you make.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Yesterday's hero; today's goat. You live and die by the choices you make.

Sure. But judgements by people with no sense of proportion and minds deranged by political setbacks don't matter, at all. You're only a goat if they matter.

 

[FJAG]

Sure. But judgements by people with no sense of proportion and minds deranged by political setbacks don't matter, at all. You're only a goat if they matter.

Karma matters. It's apolitical.

 

[HavokFour]

Solid strikes tonight.

Massive Ukrainian drone attack hit oil facility, bridge, and data centers in St. Petersburg

Eyewitness footage taken by St. Petersburg residents show what appears to be Ukrainian drones flying through the air and the city's air defense systems at work.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

Solid strikes tonight.

Massive Ukrainian drone attack hit oil facility, bridge, and data centers in St. Petersburg

Eyewitness footage taken by St. Petersburg residents show what appears to be Ukrainian drones flying through the air and the city's air defense systems at work.

kyivindependent.com

Burn it all down.

 

[Good2Golf]

Meanwhile it's a fact that Musk was at one time a hero for making Starlink quickly available to Ukraine

…and of course mere supposition that Starlink apparatchiks then passed UAF StarLink-dependent activity details onwards to RUS intel orgs to counter.

 

[Brad Sallows]

…and of course mere supposition that Starlink apparatchiks then passed UAF StarLink-dependent activity details onwards to RUS intel orgs to counter.

Are you suggesting it's a fact, or just throwing supposition out there because facts won't do?

If this is some "intelligence people in the know" rumour, I already have enough leftover "intelligence people in the know" rumours and errors about what the USSR was supposed to be able to do and be doing during the Cold War to last a lifetime. I despise the USSR and now Russia as currently governed, but more rumours are not needed.

I do remember that at the time Ukraine was, on net, thankful for Starlink.

The rumour can be true - for example, there might be employees sympathetic to Russia in any organization - and doesn't change the thesis. Teslas are common as dirt in the BC lower mainland. Starlink has begun to significantly alter the telecomm landscape (dramatically cuts the expense of providing bandwidth to remote users). SpaceX is capable of putting mass into orbit much more cheaply than anyone might have hoped even a few years ago. Musk putting some of his money into politics is not materially different that the Koch brothers or Soros putting some of their money into politics. Since the outrage is always directional (partisan), I conclude there's no inherent problem with their money in politics; the flaw is the way people view it based on their own weaknesses of character.

Musk is getting stuff done. People opposed to Putin in Ukraine have had since 2014 to get stuff done. Did they get much done?

 

[RangerRay]

US-Russia alliance now in the open, signed in Ukrainian blood. The Ukrainians now gets it, and the Ukrainians are steadily making gains in the ground war. This may have scared Musk and Trump into action.

Sounds like it was Musk’s idea and Trump went with it. Both are pointing fingers at each since it’s unpopular, but at this time, Starlink/Starshield has but been reinstated.

Weekend Update #207: The US-Russia Alliance Is Signed--In Ukrainian Blood

Ukraine Seems To Get It This Time; Ukraine Keeps Steadily Progressing In The Land War

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Now one thing that is also clear about the US-Russian alliance is that, while it is operating, neither Donald Trump, its architect and prime creator, nor Elon Musk, its technical enforcer, wants to take credit. That is a fascinating thing about this alliance. Its backers know that it is unpopular with the American people, and know that it will do real damage to the credibility of US businesses around the world, and yet they are doing it anyway. It is a sign of how committed they are to Russian success and to hammering Ukraine, so much so that both Trump and Musk are willing to suffer real political/economic risk to put it into action.

And we have seen over the last few days both of them pretending they were not responsible for the Starlink/Starshield cut. The White House, for one, is doing everything possible to shift blame to others, particularly Musk. This includes Trump personally denying responsibility to the press (as he did two nights ago) saying:

Q: Was it you or was it Elon Musk who decided to temporarily pause Starlink access for the Ukrainian military?

TRUMP: I don't know if it was anybody, because it wasn't me, and I don't think it was Elon.

Now this is Trump actually being demure, because anonymous White House sources are throwing Musk under the bus. They are saying that Musk brought up the idea unprompted, and only then did Trump agree. Four different White House sources (telling you just how nervous they are) told The Telegraph that Musk was the person who brought the plan to Trump.

Here is how the Kyiv Independentsummarized the story.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk approached U.S. President Donald Trump with the idea of restricting Starlink speeds for Ukrainian forces, the Telegraph reported on Oct. 16, citing four sources familiar with the matter.

Now, why was the White House trying to pass the buck? Well, they know this is a political loser with the election fewer than three weeks away. And they wanted to stop the chorus of (accurate) stories being circulated that Trump was the person responsible for the decision. These included this story from Reuters, which got a great deal of coverage. It also included a statement from Elon Musk which basically said it was not his decision and pointing the finger at the administration.

So how did we get to the point that Trump and Musk were desperately trying to pass the buck? That was because of two things. The first was that the decision was greeted disastrously in the USA. Being buddies with Putin (which both Trump and Musk are) is actually not a popular position to take, especially when you are helping Putin slaughter Ukrainian civilians and when it is seen that you are keeping the Ukrainians from fighting back effectively. Both Trump and Musk had, because of their pro-Putin proclivities, probably convinced themselves that they could take such a position and it would be ok. It was not.

Also, in the case of Elon Musk, it was doubly destructive, as it showed relying on his Starlink technology leaves a state vulnerable at any time to his whims. It made it painfully obvious that states going forward would need to free themselves from being in his or America’s thrall.