Political impacts of Ukraine war

[MrWhyt]

Who do you expect to provide the funds and weapons? Canada? NATO and/or EU member states? USA?

yes.

 

[Brad Sallows]

yes.

So business as usual as it has been since 2022. Most Americans seem to not want to pay for Europe's war, and Europeans won't unilaterally boost their contributions or get involved to tip the scale in Ukraine's favour. 1930s deja vu (everyone conditionally apparently willing to step up, but waiting for someone else to take the first plunge).

 

[MrWhyt]

1930s deja vu (everyone conditionally apparently willing to step up, but waiting for someone else to take the first plunge).

what is the alternative to helping ukraine? do we appease putin, offer up the Sudetenland to get peace in our time?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Somewhere, somehow I need to use this line....

Eurosphere’s diplocratic industrial complex
Credit to Terry Glavin The nauseating greasiness of it all

 

[suffolkowner]

we can help Ukraine bleed Russia for another 5 years and another million dead and million wounded. Perhaps Russia will tire of the war by then

 

[Eaglelord17]

we can help Ukraine bleed Russia for another 5 years and another million dead and million wounded. Perhaps Russia will tire of the war by then

Russia has two years max left.

Ukraine never had long range capabilities until this year. Right now they are systematically destroying their infrastructure which wasn’t possible in the last 4 years. Russian AD is weak now and it isn’t getting any stronger.

This is 1943-1944 Germany getting strategically bombed type situation now.

Russia cannot advance, they are stalemated on the front lines. They cannot do much more infrastructure damage than that they have been doing for the last 4 years. Opposing that Ukraine is successfully counter attacking and taking back land at a lot less losses and systemically destroying a lot of key infrastructure which was untouchable a year before.

The war is at a turning point, Ukraine is winning, and just supporting them a little longer will be the deciding factor. Yes it is more blood and money, but Russia lacks the means to actually push to a successful conclusion for them and the longer this goes on the worse it shall be for them.

 

[GR66]

Russia has two years max left.

Ukraine never had long range capabilities until this year. Right now they are systematically destroying their infrastructure which wasn’t possible in the last 4 years. Russian AD is weak now and it isn’t getting any stronger.

This is 1943-1944 Germany getting strategically bombed type situation now.

Russia cannot advance, they are stalemated on the front lines. They cannot do much more infrastructure damage than that they have been doing for the last 4 years. Opposing that Ukraine is successfully counter attacking and taking back land at a lot less losses and systemically destroying a lot of key infrastructure which was untouchable a year before.

The war is at a turning point, Ukraine is winning, and just supporting them a little longer will be the deciding factor. Yes it is more blood and money, but Russia lacks the means to actually push to a successful conclusion for them and the longer this goes on the worse it shall be for them.

 

[suffolkowner]

Russia has two years max left.

Ukraine never had long range capabilities until this year. Right now they are systematically destroying their infrastructure which wasn’t possible in the last 4 years. Russian AD is weak now and it isn’t getting any stronger.

This is 1943-1944 Germany getting strategically bombed type situation now.

Russia cannot advance, they are stalemated on the front lines. They cannot do much more infrastructure damage than that they have been doing for the last 4 years. Opposing that Ukraine is successfully counter attacking and taking back land at a lot less losses and systemically destroying a lot of key infrastructure which was untouchable a year before.

The war is at a turning point, Ukraine is winning, and just supporting them a little longer will be the deciding factor. Yes it is more blood and money, but Russia lacks the means to actually push to a successful conclusion for them and the longer this goes on the worse it shall be for them.

Another two years at current rates would at least double Russias current combat casualties to something on the order of a million dead and 2 million wounded.

 

[Brad Sallows]

what is the alternative to helping ukraine? do we appease putin, offer up the Sudetenland to get peace in our time?

As I've written repeatedly here, there are 3 options:
1. Make concessions for peace.
2. Escalate (on Ukraine's side) and win.
3. Just keep helping Ukraine enough to keep Ukraine and Russia slowly bleeding out blood and treasure.

"3" is where things currently stand. I would choose either "1" or "2", and strongly prefer "2". But I stand apart from many people in that I don't grant the premise that it can't be done without the US. A fraction of Europe is enough to outclass Russia on the battlefields of Ukraine, but they all seem to be holding back waiting for someone else to do the heavy lifting. I can guess it's because they are fiscally over-committed and really would prefer someone else to pay for arms and munitions while they pay for their own social programs. And the commentariat would rather bitch about Trump than hold European politicians' feet to the fires.

 

[suffolkowner]

Russia has two years max left.

Ukraine never had long range capabilities until this year. Right now they are systematically destroying their infrastructure which wasn’t possible in the last 4 years. Russian AD is weak now and it isn’t getting any stronger.

This is 1943-1944 Germany getting strategically bombed type situation now.

Russia cannot advance, they are stalemated on the front lines. They cannot do much more infrastructure damage than that they have been doing for the last 4 years. Opposing that Ukraine is successfully counter attacking and taking back land at a lot less losses and systemically destroying a lot of key infrastructure which was untouchable a year before.

The war is at a turning point, Ukraine is winning, and just supporting them a little longer will be the deciding factor. Yes it is more blood and money, but Russia lacks the means to actually push to a successful conclusion for them and the longer this goes on the worse it shall be for them.

Ukraine seems to have found a partial work around the starshield problems at least until israel objects

 

[PrairieFella]

Ukraine seems to have found a partial work around the starshield problems at least until israel objects

What do you mean?

 

[suffolkowner]

What do you mean?

They have apparently switched some drones etc to an israeli joint with someone satellite system. Cant link to the twitter right now unfortunately

edit

https://twitter.com/x/status/2121911754380767581

 

[RangerRay]

When evil and stupidity hold misnamed “peace” talks. Also, a hack of the Russian stats office shows Russian battle deaths to underestimated, and Starlink/Starshield is throttled again.

Weekend Update #211: The Week In Which Stupidity Battled Evil

Russian Losses Are Being Revised Upwards; Starlink/Starshield Is Limited Again

phillipspobrien.substack.com

 

[YZT580]

Russia has two years max left.

Ukraine never had long range capabilities until this year. Right now they are systematically destroying their infrastructure which wasn’t possible in the last 4 years. Russian AD is weak now and it isn’t getting any stronger.

This is 1943-1944 Germany getting strategically bombed type situation now.

Russia cannot advance, they are stalemated on the front lines. They cannot do much more infrastructure damage than that they have been doing for the last 4 years. Opposing that Ukraine is successfully counter attacking and taking back land at a lot less losses and systemically destroying a lot of key infrastructure which was untouchable a year before.

The war is at a turning point, Ukraine is winning, and just supporting them a little longer will be the deciding factor. Yes it is more blood and money, but Russia lacks the means to actually push to a successful conclusion for them and the longer this goes on the worse it shall be for them.

are you counting in help from their allies, sadly including Trump and Musk in that grouping, when you make that statement. Ukraine asked for long range weapons in 2022 and Europe and the U.S. said no. They could have done this 2 or 3 years ago. Took them a while to create their own.

 

[YZT580]

As I've written repeatedly here, there are 3 options:
1. Make concessions for peace.
2. Escalate (on Ukraine's side) and win.
3. Just keep helping Ukraine enough to keep Ukraine and Russia slowly bleeding out blood and treasure.

"3" is where things currently stand. I would choose either "1" or "2", and strongly prefer "2". But I stand apart from many people in that I don't grant the premise that it can't be done without the US. A fraction of Europe is enough to outclass Russia on the battlefields of Ukraine, but they all seem to be holding back waiting for someone else to do the heavy lifting. I can guess it's because they are fiscally over-committed and really would prefer someone else to pay for arms and munitions while they pay for their own social programs. And the commentariat would rather bitch about Trump than hold European politicians' feet to the fires.

They could spend Russia's money