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Possible US Banking Collapse Inbound?

Looks like the US government is going to protect SVB depositors, but SVB investors are on their own.

Another bank, Signature Bank (NY based) has also been shuttered by regulators.

Apparently the government’s thinking is that guaranteeing deposits should prevent any further bank runs.

Unexpected inflation overturning the expectations on otherwise customarily conservative long-term investments isn't a failure of deregulation or shoddy practices.

A whole lot of other banks not going tits-up suggests that maybe, yeah, it is. SVB failed to hedge its massive increase in deposits against the potential for significant inflation despite a couple years of very loose monetary policy.

In 2018 the Republicans greatly increased the capitalization threshold for application of the Frank-Dodda regulations (after lobbying from SVB, among other institutions). This had the effect of reversing regulations put in place after the 2008 financial crisis.

Protecting depositors and letting the bank’s investors eat the torpedo seems appropriate in this case. Hopefully securities regulators take a good close look at the insider sales of SVB stock by SVB executives in the past few weeks. I’m not saying those sales were shady, but they certainly look shady.

If I'm in a privileged financial position, it didn't happen by accident.

Neither did the financial privilege I enjoy. We’re both insulated by our own relative success from experiencing the hard reality many people face, but you also seem to be insulated from even awareness of that reality. This leads you to say some rather startling and tone-deaf things. Ironic that even on this very site we talk about CAF members living at the edge of poverty due to rising expenses. You seem to think people can choose their way out of it.

The reality is that the prosperous corporate success often relies on the labour of a lot of poor people doing the grunt work at the bottom. The system may be set up to afford opportunity to some of them individually, but it’s not set up to let the bulk of low-wage workers find a way out of that. Our economy self-corrects a certain proportion of the population into being stuck in the world of low income and the rent trap.
 
Barney Frank (of Dodd-Frank fame) became a board member of Signature Bank after he left office. And lobbied for changes to Dodd-Frank after joining the board to keep SVB and SB from having to meet more stringent liquidity regulations.


 
Barney Frank (of Dodd-Frank fame) became a board member of Signature Bank after he left office. And lobbied for changes to Dodd-Frank after joining the board to keep SVB and SB from having to meet more stringent liquidity regulations.


Classic
 
My mortgage is nearly paid off, not because of privilege, but because we decided live beneath our means; we did not buy new cars or toys and we haven’t had a decent vacation in years.

People make choices.
Still means you had more coming in then going out. Lots of people don't have that option. And what was a livable wage a few years ago no longer is.

'Working poor' is a feature of capitalism, not a bug. Doesn't take much to fall behind either, you get laid off, company shut down, whatever. And once you get behind, if you are just treading water, how do you get ahead? What I pay for my mortgage now wouldn't pay for rent on a single bedroom apartment. What your mortgage was would only be downpayment now. People in the same shoes as what you were then don't have the choice you did, because your salary no longer gives people the same option you had however many years ago.

In this case big bank spends a lot of money to lobby US politicians to reduce regulatory oversight, gets it reduced, then goes bankrupt. This is not a consumer issue, this is a megarich corporation and corrupt politician issue.
 
For a lot of people living paycheque to paycheque it didn't happen by choice either.

Minimum wage isn't a livable wage.
Correct. And the vast majority of people don't spend most of their lives earning minimum wage. But my comments obviously aren't directed to minimum wage earners - I'm looking at the people who are in a position to make choices about spending or saving.
 
A whole lot of other banks not going tits-up suggests that maybe, yeah, it is. SVB failed to hedge its massive increase in deposits against the potential for significant inflation despite a couple years of very loose monetary policy.
Until we know how many institutions are underwater on long-term securities and how badly, but have not yet had their depositors run, speculation is pointless.
 
My mortgage is nearly paid off, not because of privilege, but because we decided live beneath our means; we did not buy new cars or toys and we haven’t had a decent vacation in years.

People make choices.

Absolutely. You worked your ass off, got commissioned, ended up in a good trade with officer’s pay and some environmental allowance from time to time, and you were in a position over the years to build a pretty good life. Nothing at all wrong with that.

How’s that same dynamic working out for the new NCM posted to Esquimault? Or the receptionist at your kids’ dental office? The retail and restaurant workers you cross paths with?

Nothing I’ve said here is an attack on anyone or their success. I think, however, that many of us (myself included) have achieved professional and financial success that shields us from the very difficult financial situation many face. I’m simply forcefully rejecting this absurd notion that living paycheck to paycheck is a choice for everyone in that position. Some people are stupid with money and reap what they sow. Others can’t come close to having enough money to be stupid with it.
 
"Working poor" is the default condition of life. Capitalism is a cure, not a cause.

Adequately, and occasionally stringently, regulated capitalism is part of the cure to that. A solid social safety net is another major portion. Relatively unbridled capitalism can get rather Dickensian. It took a long time and a lot of labour law to move on from that.
 
Adequately, and occasionally stringently, regulated capitalism is part of the cure to that. A solid social safety net is another major portion. Relatively unbridled capitalism can get rather Dickensian. It took a long time and a lot of labour law to move on from that.
Even poorly regulated capitalism is better than no capitalism. For some people, a 60 hour week in a sweatshop is better than subsistence farming with a meaningful risk of famine. Note that I'm not making an absolute argument for sweatshops and Dickensian conditions; everything (including both of the aforementioned) ought be measured relative to its likely alternatives.

There is a problem with too much intervention: Moral Hazard. The less responsibility people have to endure, the more irresponsible they are likely to become.
 
Absolutely. You worked your ass off, got commissioned, ended up in a good trade with officer’s pay and some environmental allowance from time to time, and you were in a position over the years to build a pretty good life. Nothing at all wrong with that.

How’s that same dynamic working out for the new NCM posted to Esquimault? Or the receptionist at your kids’ dental office? The retail and restaurant workers you cross paths with?

Nothing I’ve said here is an attack on anyone or their success. I think, however, that many of us (myself included) have achieved professional and financial success that shields us from the very difficult financial situation many face. I’m simply forcefully rejecting this absurd notion that living paycheck to paycheck is a choice for everyone in that position. Some people are stupid with money and reap what they sow. Others can’t come close to having enough money to be stupid with it.
I compare it to the often misunderstood differences between equality and equity.

equality-vs-equity.jpg

Our society is basically the picture on the left, we have tried to move to the picture in the middle with only limited success while the picture on the right is a pipe dream.

We have an equal society, not an equitable one.
 
Our society is basically the picture on the left, we have tried to move to the picture in the middle with only limited success while the picture on the right is a pipe dream.

We have an equal society, not an equitable one.
Where are @Weinie's cousins lounging on higher boxes in the left picture?
 
Still means you had more coming in then going out. Lots of people don't have that option. And what was a livable wage a few years ago no longer is.

'Working poor' is a feature of capitalism, not a bug. Doesn't take much to fall behind either, you get laid off, company shut down, whatever. And once you get behind, if you are just treading water, how do you get ahead? What I pay for my mortgage now wouldn't pay for rent on a single bedroom apartment. What your mortgage was would only be downpayment now. People in the same shoes as what you were then don't have the choice you did, because your salary no longer gives people the same option you had however many years ago.

In this case big bank spends a lot of money to lobby US politicians to reduce regulatory oversight, gets it reduced, then goes bankrupt. This is not a consumer issue, this is a megarich corporation and corrupt politician issue.
Of course we have more coming in than going out. It is called “living within your means”. And it is a conscious choice, whether one makes $25K or $25 Million.
 
Of course we have more coming in than going out. It is called “living within your means”. And it is a conscious choice, whether one makes $25K or $25 Million.
Yes- and for the former, that would be the scraping by to survive paycheck to paycheck. That’s a hear this whole thread of conversation came from. Those are the people in no position to save for a rainy day- because every day is rainy, and more often than not the roof leaks.
 
People in SV aren't making $25K. Not sure how the plight of people earning what is probably below most poverty measures became some kind of counterpoint to the plight of people earning "SV money" (as a former acquaintance who once earned it, put it). If you're young and in tech in SV, you're exactly the kind of person who can and should be setting something aside for a rainy day - especially if you're working with the uncertain future of a new venture hanging over you.
 
Two points.

1) Minimum wage jobs are meant for students and retirees to do on a part time basis to make some cash, they aren't supposed to be a career.

2) If one chooses to work a profession/job that wont fund their desired lifestyle they would like then that person has to either make peace with that or improve their lot in life.
 
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