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Québec 2007 , results

Yrys

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See primary results at right at : http://www.monvote.qc.ca/en/

Political party                    Leading electoraldivisions / 125 Percentage ofleading electoraldivisions(%)
Quebec Liberal Party                                                     46     36,80 %
Action démocratique du Québec/Équipe Mario Dumont   42   33,60 %
Parti québécois                                                        37 29,60 %
 
Everybody had Jean Charest  called as losing but he actually won by 1200 votes

Liberals win, leader loses wins as minority elected in Quebec
Last Updated: Monday, March 26, 2007 | 11:12 PM ET CBC News
Article Link

Quebec has elected a Liberal minority government in Quebec, although party leader Jean Charest has lost won his seat in Sherbrooke. (by 1200 votes)

The Liberals and the Action Démocratique du Québec ran neck and neck in several closely contested ridings, with the Parti Québécois trailing in third for most of Monday night.

Liberal Leader Jean Charest casts his ballot in Sherbrooke on Monday.
(Tom Hanson/Canadian Press) The election has resulted in the first minority government in Quebec since 1878.

The Liberals had 33 per cent of the popular vote, translating to 46 seats.

Mario Dumont's ADQ was narrowly behind with 31 per cent of the popular vote and collected 42 seats.

PQ candidate Claude Forgues upset Charest by taking about 35 per cent of the popular vote in Sherbrooke, compared to the Liberal leader's 31 per cent
More on link
 
Leader , Charest, does not  lose , but he didn't get elected Sherbrooke by 1332 votes.
It was announce earlier that he had loses .


 
Charest may as well have lost.  He is done as the leader of the Libs in Quebec.  I would be surprised to see him still leading the party by this time next year.
 
I’m not exactly sure what to make of the Québec election results but that’s no impediment to pontificating.

It seems to me that the results mean either:

1. Nothing much at all; the ADQ benefited from a protest vote from electors who wanted no part of Jean Charest or André Boisclair; or

2. It is the much ballyhooed fundamental realignment in which Québec gets three parties: left wing separatists, centrist federalists and right wing ‘autonomists.’

If nothing much at all happened then we will have another election in about one to two years; the results will be one of:

• An ADQ majority – based on a solid performance by Dumont and his front bench in the assemblée national;

• A Liberal majority – based on a solid performance by Jean Charest’s successor; or

• A PQ majority based on a solid performance by André Boisclair’s successor.

In any case it means a return to the politics as usual.

If it was the fundamental realignment then:

1. Sovereignty is on hold for a generation; and

2. ’Autonomism’ gains credence – more and more if it remains undefined – especially if there is a Harper-Conservative majority in Canada because it appears to me that Dumont’s autonomism is close enough to Harper’s decentralist* view of Canada to give both credibility.

But: the Globe and Mail’s Jeffrey Simpson and John Ibbitson† (both of whom deserve our attention when they stay in their lanes and deal with national politics) declare that the equally fundamental disconnect between Francophone Québecers and other Canadians is growing.

In my opinion Québec is out of step with Canada and if we can or even should maintain a unified Canada then it may be that vastly increased autonomism (for all five‡ regions) is the only way to manage the federation.

On balance I think this makes a national general election sometime this year a sure thing – I think Harper can engineer a defeat on a public safety or national security issue, either of which can be made into a confidence issue and either of which might be so odious as to force all three opposition parties to vote against the government but either of which might have broad popular appeal.  I think this current Québec alignment (whether just a flash in the pan or fundamental) makes it easier for Harper to pick up enough seats to form a majority.

I hope this is the ‘fundamental realignment’ because I think Canada needs some fundamental reformation of its own and the status quo, wit Québec’s traditional aspirations at the centre of the political universe makes that reform impossible and may, therefore, spell the doom of the country. 


----------
* Despite the acknowledged intentions of the Fathers of Confederation to build a strong central government (based on their view of the just completed US Civil War), the document they actually signed created the most decentralized federation in the world.  Source: Watts, Comparing Federal Systems, McGill-Queens University Press, 1999.


† Article links: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070327.wxcosimp27/BNStory/National/home and http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070327.wxcoibbi27/BNStory/National/home

‡ According to Jean Chrétien they are BC, Prairies, Ontario, Québec and Atlantic Canada
 
Reccesoldier said:
Charest may as well have lost.  He is done as the leader of the Libs in Quebec.  I would be surprised to see him still leading the party by this time next year.

I disagree. Charest won his seat, the Liberals are still the government. There is nobody provincially that high enough profile to challenge him and succeed enough to win a majority in the next election. Dumont is premier in waiting if he does not blow it and the Liberals keep self destructing.

Charest is savvy enough politician to pick up the pieces and move on.
 
Charest stands a better chance to remain the Liberal Party leader than Boisclair has of remaining the leader of the Parti Québecois.  With their poor performance and the fact that they eat their own (not literally) after a defeat, we might see new leadership within that party.  Overall though I am pleased that it is a minority government.

Regards,
 
ER can you post the articles to those links? They are for subscribers only.
 
GAP said:
ER can you post the articles to those links? They are for subscribers only.

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act are the Simpson and Ibbitson articles from today’s Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070327.wxcosimp27/BNStory/National/home
The disconnect between Quebec francophones and Canada

JEFFREY SIMPSON
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

The Quebec election results -- a feeble Liberal minority -- illustrate the continuing disengagement of the province's francophones from Canada. Where this will lead is unknown, but this disengagement will intensify demands for more power and money for Quebec.

The results also show, quite predictably, how little federalists were helped by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's "solution" to the so-called fiscal imbalance and other measures designed to curry favour for federalism in Quebec.

The Prime Minister's overt strategy of catering to Quebec will help his own party in the next federal election. Last night, at best, it might have slowed slightly the marked decline in the provincial Liberal vote. Chances are, the Harper strategy did not even accomplish that modest objective.

Jean Charest's Liberals, the so-called strong federalists, got fewer francophone votes yesterday than the Parti Québécois, the party backing secession, and the Action Démocratique, the party proposing the oxymoronic policy of Quebec "autonomy" within Canada.

Even the francophones who voted Liberal were supporting a party whose leader spent the campaign promising to "defend Quebec's interests." Mr. Charest defined this need as further expanding Quebec jurisdiction within Canada and abroad, and curbing the federal spending power. Without a majority, he argued, Quebec would be "weakened before Ottawa and the rest of Canada," as if people elsewhere were planning an assault on the province.

The Liberals attracted less than a third of the francophone vote, while capturing the lion's share of the non-francophones. Most francophones, then, voted for parties with no interest in Canada (the PQ) or almost no interest (the ADQ), except as a matter of convenience.

The ADQ opposes another referendum, as do the Liberals. Thanks be for that, although two separate countries would be better than the constitutional monstrosity of the ADQ's "autonomous Quebec" within Canada. Federal politics has witnessed something of the same pattern since the creation of the Bloc Québécois after the collapse of the Meech Lake accord. In every subsequent federal election, the Bloc has won the largest number of francophone votes.

By definition, the Bloc cannot be part of the governance of Canada; indeed, the party is not interested in that governance, except for what it does for or to Quebec. A Bloc vote can mean many things -- but it cannot mean participating in the governance of Canada.

Such is the state of federalism in Quebec that the Liberals can only command the support of about a quarter of francophones. Mr. Harper might have thought that delivering on his election promise to resolve the mythical "fiscal imbalance" would help Mr. Charest. So would the other manifestations of "open" federalism. The results demonstrated that these efforts flopped.

Quebeckers had already psychologically pocketed the "fiscal imbalance" cash, as could have been predicted. Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe brilliantly captured that attitude in saying: "It's our money."

Of course, the money was not, but no matter. Quebeckers pay about 20 per cent of total federal revenues. Thus, about 20 per cent of the equalization money pot comes from Quebec. The province will be getting more than $7-billion in additional payments in coming years, meaning that, by definition, about $5.5-billion will be transferred from elsewhere, mostly from Ontario. Quebeckers had been conditioned to believe, including by the Prime Minister, that the federal system "owed" them money. Solving the "fiscal imbalance" was thus viewed as debt repayment, not something to inspire gratitude.

Mr. Harper will now deal with a Quebec government even more nationalist and determined to extract additional power and money from Ottawa.

For Mr. Charest, Mr. Harper's "open" federalism meant open chequebooks, because the Prime Minister had a Mulroneyesque grand strategy to build the Conservative Party in Quebec and sway nationalist Quebeckers toward federalism. Presumably, the grand strategy remains in place, despite its setback last night.

Quebeckers are brilliant. They have a more nationalist government in Quebec City to press their interests against Ottawa. They have their own official opposition, the Bloc, to press their interests in Ottawa.

And they have a PM whose "open" federalism has been like pushing against an open door.
[email protected]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070327.wxcoibbi27/BNStory/National
Of rednecks and the rural-urban solitudes

JOHN IBBITSON
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

If there's one thing that yesterday's Quebec election proved, it's that intolerance remains a force in Canadian politics. To their everlasting disgrace, too many urban intellectuals have chosen to reinforce it.

In small-town Ontario, right up until the 1960s, some citizens refused to vote for a Catholic. These Anglo-Saxon Protestants were good people, by and large: God-fearing, neighbour-loving, honest and charitable.

But their ancestors had emigrated to Canada from the British Isles, and they had inherited from those ancestors a reflexive dislike of Catholics in general and Irish Catholics in particular. The Irish were called dogans and those from Southern or Eastern Europe were wops or polacks or bohunks. None of them, the WASPs were convinced, could be trusted with public office, because Catholics were all in thrall to the Pope.

Those good old boys and girls are all dead now, and anti-Catholic sentiment has disappeared from Ontario, to the best of this writer's knowledge. Most readers have probably never even heard the words dogan or bohunk before. Things get better.

But as the Quebec election has demonstrated, Canada's rural regions continue to harbour obnoxious attitudes. Although Mario Dumont is not half so objectionable as Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Action Démocratique du Québec is tapping the same vein of intolerance in Quebec that the National Front courts in France.

Mr. Dumont has censured candidates in his party who disparage Jews, Muslims and homosexuals, but his surge in popularity in part stems from his stand on the "reasonable accommodation" debate. Quebec society, Mr. Dumont complains, has gone too far in placating the demands of immigrants, who should adapt to Quebec culture rather than expect Quebeckers to adapt to them.

Because Quebec is a nationalist society, and because the oxygen of nationalism is suspicion of the Other, this sort of thing plays well, especially in the old-stock communities outside Montreal.

But English Canada is not immune to this bilge. In the very best salons of Toronto and Vancouver, as well as on main-street Saskatchewan, anti-immigrant diatribes are increasingly common. Too many Muslim and Sikh Canadians aren't properly integrating into Canadian society, goes the complaint. Their religious attitudes demean women and disparage our democratic traditions. You find this argument coming from hijab-hating feminists as much as rednecks, from the left as much as from the right.

But wherever it comes from, substitute "Catholic" for "Muslim" and we're right back to small-town Ontario two generations ago.

So, on this day, when atavistic Quebeckers have bolstered the fortunes of a party of intolerance -- though we should also recognize that some of those votes are simply a reaction against the old elite accommodation -- let's remind ourselves of a few things.

First, Canada has a Constitution, including a Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and a body of common and statutory law rooted in British and French political, cultural and legal traditions. These traditions are so robust that they are on the cusp of becoming universal norms. To suggest they are threatened in this country by a tiny minority of immigrants is ludicrous.

Second, about 250,000 immigrants arrive here every year. The places where they settle are dynamic and prosperous. The places they avoid are dying.

Third, opinion leaders who single out a small group of immigrants, accusing them of refusing to fit in, condemning their culture, and ostracizing them from the mainstream, are nothing but bullies and bigots who contribute to the very radicalization they condemn.

So, to all the ADQ backbenchers and small-town mayors who disparage the latest batch of new arrivals, this message: Go ahead. You and your prejudices will fade away, and your towns will disappear, unless you can find a way to attract the very people you love to denigrate. And to the urban feminist who echoes their sentiments: For the love of Mike, woman, look who you're consorting with.

[email protected]

Here is another, also reproduced under §29 of the Copyright Act, by Andrew Coyne from today’s Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/columnists/story.html?id=8977aa70-cd5f-4017-87ea-fe8e54e6ab51
Federalism's failure

Andrew Cohen, Citizen Special
Published: Tuesday, March 27, 2007

When Jean Charest was elected premier of Quebec four years ago, many thought he would be the most federalist leader since Jean Lesage in the 1960s.

Like Mr. Lesage, who spent some 13 years in Ottawa as a parliamentarian and minister, Mr. Charest had begun his political career in Ottawa. He spoke idiomatic, unaccented English, learned from an Irish Quebec mother who had named him "John." In some 14 years in Ottawa, he held senior cabinet portfolios and was chosen leader of the Progressive Conservatives in 1995, the first francophone in the party's history.

He wanted to be Prime Minister of Canada.

His experience in Ottawa and his commitment to Canada were refreshing. He was not a nuanced, equivocal Canadian like other Quebecers who came to Ottawa as Mulroney Conservatives.

He was genuinely committed to this country, which was reflected in his spirited performance in the referendum campaign of 1995. His support for the country, like a child's love, was unconditional.

There have been those hopeless naifs who expected that Mr. Charest could carry that with him when he became Quebec premier in 2003. Of course, his election alone -- and the defeat of the Parti Quebecois -- would ensure there would be no sovereignty referendum during his term. And there wasn't.

But there was a hope -- foolish, now, really -- that Mr. Charest would change the channel between Ottawa and Quebec City. That he would ask less of Ottawa -- or, perhaps, nothing at all. That he would no longer be the pesky, untiring, demandeur.

Four years later, we learn anew that that is impossible for a premier of Quebec.

He simply cannot be a federalist, or thought of as federalist, in any way, shape or form. He can be a Canadian, one supposes, but only with caveats and conditions. One of the reasons that Mr. Charest and the Liberals appear to have been battered in Quebec -- the final result is still not clear at this writing -- is because they have been seen as too accommodating in a province where nationalism is the state religion.

As conciliatory blacks in the United States are accused of not being black enough, Mr. Charest was seen as not French enough. He was a vendu, his loyalty suspect among the pure laine crowd.

As long as the opposition was more nationalist than Mr. Charest, it could say he was "not demanding enough," which is exactly what it did.

The chorus was unrelenting. The irony here is the booty Mr. Charest brought home from a federal government happy to enrich him in the hope of improving its standing in the province.

It isn't just the billions in transfer payments that he won in the federal budget last week, with no strings attached, which allowed Mr. Charest to offer a tax cut while the province's roads crumble. It was as well the billions that Mr. Charest (and the other premiers) won for health care in 2004 from the Liberals, who were also happy to hand over money with no real conditions.

In international affairs, Mr. Charest was happy to make visits to New York and Paris, playing the strutting strongman that every premier of Quebec likes to be.

He was happy to open more foreign legations and to embrace a more muscular role in international affairs, neither of which bothered the somnolent federal government, unfazed about sharing its authority.

The coup de grace, of course, was winning a seat for Quebec in UNESCO, which sets a dangerous precedent.

That, of course, has been followed by demands for a voice in other international organizations where, we know, the bilingual representative of Canada could not possibly represent the singular, sovereign interests of Quebec.

And then, of course, there is the declaration of les Quebecois as a nation within Canada.

It is a resolution of Parliament, to be sure, but it strengthens Quebec's claim to its distinctiveness, its uniqueness, and, by extension, its need for more money, tax credits and constitutional powers to make itself a distinct society. All this Mr. Charest has won for Quebec.

As for Canada, it still does not have a real economic union and a national securities regulator, which Quebec resists or ignores, which would help build a greater sense of country.

If the Liberals survive yesterday's election with a minority government, the nationalist/secessionist opposition will force them to make more demands of Ottawa. To remain in office, they will.

And if they lose power to Mario Dumont and the ADQ, who believe in greater autonomy, stopping short of independence, it will show, once again, the failure of federalism in today's Quebec.

Andrew Cohen teaches journalism and international affairs at Carleton University. E-mail: [email protected]

© The Ottawa Citizen 2007


I divide Canadians into five groups (not regionally):

1. The Aboriginals or First Nations.  They have a distinct culture and society based upon cultural norms and a historical experience which is different from that of any and all other Canadians.  They also have a special claim on our attention because of our abuse of the treaties which we inherited from our British colonial predecessors;

2. The French Canadians.  They may be subdivided into French Québecers and other French Canadians;

3. The English Canadians.  They, broadly, include most of the European immigrants who arrived in the 19th and 20th centuries;

4. The Asian Immigrants.  This groups might be subdivided into Indo-Canadian and Sino-Canadian communities but I think the distinctions are overly fine and disappearing as the Sino-Canadians become less insular and play an increasingly active role in politics; and

5. The Other Immigrant.  This large and fast growing group is also divided by language.  A minority of this minority have adapted to and joined the French Québec society. 

I believe that the Asian Immigrants will, in the 21st century merge with the English Canadians.  I believe, equally, that some immigrant communities will, even after three or four generations, find a merger (with either the English or French communities) difficult – as second and third generation Algerian and Lebanese Muslims are finding it difficult to “join” the French Québec society - not because they are unwilling, but because they are unwelcome.

For the time being I see the major cleavages as being:

• English vs French; and

• “Native” vs Immigrant.

While I think that Aboriginal, English and French “native Canadians” all have deep differences with the (non Asian) immigrant communities those differences pale against the English/French divide.

I also believe that this election has deepened the English/French divide – primarily for the reason Coyne enunciates: ” He can be a Canadian, one supposes, but only with caveats and conditions.”  I think that applies to most French Québecers – they are very nuanced Canadians, in so far as the English majority defines “Canadian.”
 
Dumont has to be considered to be a big winner as his party went from 5 seats to 41. By the next election he may have a majority.Bad news for the Liberal Party. To this outsider I would have to say that there seems to be a conservative shift in attitudes of Quebecers.This has to be good for the Conservative parties hopes at a majority after the next election.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070327/wl_canada_nm/canada_quebec_col

MONTREAL (Reuters) - The future of Quebec largely rests in the hands of a right-wing protest party that stripped the Canadian province's Liberal government of its majority and knocked the separatists into third place in Monday's election, commentators said on Tuesday.

The French-speaking province has its first minority government since 1878, thanks to the startling rise of the Action democratique du Quebec, which won 41 of the 125 seats in the provincial legislature.

The ADQ, led by 36-year-old Mario Dumont -- which wants more autonomy for Quebec but opposes separation -- had just five seats going into the election. The Liberals of Premier Jean Charest plummeted from 72 seats to just 48.

"Officially, Jean Charest is still premier. But starting today, the real boss is Mario Dumont," wrote columnist Vincent Marissal in the La Presse daily, saying the ADQ's inexperienced team of legislators would have time to learn the ropes before the next election.

Minority governments in Canada usually last about 18 months.

One of Charest's first challenges will be to go ahead with a C$750 million ($646 million) tax cut he promised during the last days of the campaign. He will have to amend Quebec's recent budget to get the cut, scheduled for 2008, officially into the books.

In Quebec City on Tuesday, Charest said he would consult the two other parties in the legislature on policy.

"The population of Quebec sent us a message. We have to listen," he told reporters.

Dumont said Charest will have to make the first step in working with the ADQ.

"We will fight for a budget that will have to balance," Dumont said.

"AUTONOMIST" APPROACH

Dumont added that the ADQ would be an insurance policy for Quebecers and he urged the incoming provincial legislature to work toward an "autonomist" approach in federal-provincial relations with Ottawa.

Dumont and the ADQ tapped into growing public dissatisfaction with old-style politics, which for the last 30 years has seen power switch from the centrist Liberals to the left-leaning separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ), and back.

"Faced with two parties, each as crippled as the other, he will be the master," wrote Michel David in the daily Le Devoir.

Dumont has promised to cut taxes, reduce the province's C$122 billion in debt and trim government bureaucracy.

Liberal legislators who had won their seats by several thousand votes in the 2003 election were brushed aside by the ADQ, which came very close to taking power.

"Neither of the other two parties can afford another election soon; a quick vote would only result in a landslide for Mr Dumont and his Action democratique du Quebec," wrote commentator Konrad Yakabuski in the Globe and Mail newspaper.

The result was particularly humiliating for the PQ, which had ridden high in the polls in December 2005 when it elected Andre Boisclair as leader.

But Boisclair, 40, stumbled repeatedly and the PQ ended up in third place with only 36 seats and just 28 percent of the vote -- a loss of 10 seats and its worst showing since 1973.

On Tuesday, Boisclair told reporters in Quebec City he planned to stay on and lead the party through the next election.

Even before the election, however, there had been growing signs of protest inside the party about his leadership.

"Over the next few weeks, we will have to sit down and try to work out what kind of message Quebecers sent us," said Bernard Drainville, a former journalist and star PQ candidate who managed to win his seat.
 
Funny to see how some journalist, see us. Theres is just one...no two simple explanation on Monday vote.. 

1- People are fed up of old parties with old ideas and unkept promises
2- The ADQ is more directed to middle class worker group with young family's. Those that started their own business and work hard so that their family can have a nice living. Those that actually do pay most of the income taxes.. and in return are most of the time neglet by old parties.

We (I voted ADQ) are no rednecks..neither are we soft separatist, I serve my country with pride  :cdn:. We are tired of losing time, money and resources on something that will never happen, separation of Quebec. Like I said ADQ is attracting young couple with young family's that just want theirs kids to grow up in a better run province with money spent at the right places for the future of our kids...not ours..

It's funny, because since last provincial election, Quebec city region was called " Mystere Quebec" by the Montreal region, and the rest of Canada after the ADQ won some ridding. That got bigger after the last federal election when Conservatives were elected .Now the ADQ is in the Montreal region...there again some so called analyst still  don't get it, and find all sorts of reason..affiliation, LePen...that one is so stupid..even in the rest of Canada, some journalist don't seem to understand, or don't want to. But it's so simple, people are just fed up.. they want to look, and go forward, tired of being at the "stall" position.... I am no analyst, just a normal taxpayer...

Cheers all
Etienne, a French Canadian  :cdn:.
 
Well, Etienne, here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s Globe and Mail (with my emphasis added) is another ‘view’ from one of those journalists:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070328.wxcoibbi28/BNStory/National/home
A time for Quebec to clean up its mess

JOHN IBBITSON
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

Mario Dumont's astonishing surge has given the Action Démocratique du Québec enormous power to influence the province's agenda, for good or for ill. Mr. Dumont could use his new power to prod Liberal Premier Jean Charest into revolutionizing Quebec's economy, or he could drag Quebec society back toward its dark past.

Quebec is a mess. The province is overtaxed, overregulated, unproductive and stagnant. The unemployment rate is chronically above the national average, the weekly wage and economic growth chronically below it.

But Quebec doesn't have to be poor. Its workforce is educated and largely bilingual, it is rich in natural resources, it has expertise in manufacturing and financial services, and its cultural industries are vibrant. Even a few years of consistently enlightened government could transform the place.

Balanced budgets, sharply reduced taxes, laws restricting union power, and a move toward user-pay principles in education and social programs would be painful and disruptive at first but, in a decade, would turn Quebec into a have province. The past quarter of a century has been marked by the transformation of previously moribund economies: Britain, Ireland, even the rest of Canada. Now it's Quebec's turn.

This, broadly speaking, is the ADQ's economic agenda, and Mr. Charest often speaks of such things, although he has seldom acted on them. Even sovereigntists such as former premier Lucien Bouchard have argued that productivity is now more important than sovereignty for Quebec.

If things go well, the ADQ and the Liberals will work together to finally shatter the province's corporatist, communitarian consensus, bringing Quebec's economy and society into the 21st century.

But things could also go badly.

Monday's election revealed that Quebec society is riven by divisions, between Liberal Montreal and ADQ Rest of Quebec, with the Parti Québécois retaining its traditional bastions in east-end Montreal and the Saguenay. The Liberals are dominant in ridings with high immigrant populations, while the ADQ owns the old-stock regions. This could lead the ADQ to demand restrictions on immigration, or to force immigrants to assimilate more fully into the French Quebec nation. This could be very dangerous for the province.

Quebec already receives far fewer immigrants than it should -- 13 per cent of the national total, when its share of the population is more than 20 per cent -- who mostly settle in and around Montreal. The province's sluggish economy and restrictive language laws deter migrants, and encourage those who do arrive to leave.

If the ADQ pushes to restrict immigration, the long-term consequences will be devastating. Without immigration, Quebec's population will start to decline in the next decade. The French island in the English-speaking sea will begin to disappear beneath the waves.

Beyond the internal debate, Quebec must realize that there can be no further debate with Canada. Mr. Dumont insisted yesterday that he is not a federalist; that while he would not support a referendum on independence, he would push relentlessly for greater autonomy for Quebec. Jean Charest, to placate Quebec discontent, probably will be equally aggressive.

They should be careful. For one thing, they will be taking their eye off the ball by obsessing on Quebec's relationship with Canada, when they should be obsessing on its economic renaissance.

For another, they may not realize that Stephen Harper, by recognizing the Québécois as a nation and increasing fiscal transfers in last week's budget, has gone as far as he can, or wants to, go. There is no appetite outside Quebec for any further accommodation of Quebec exceptionalism. That file is closed, for both the Liberals and the Conservatives. Any conversation Quebec has about its place in Confederation will be a monologue.

Mario Dumont could be Quebec's first postmodern leader, or he could be the latest iteration of the Union Nationale. He could revive the Quebec economy, or incite ethnic tensions.

Pragmatic optimism is the secret to a happy life. So we cross our fingers and hope.

[email protected]

As an outsider, at best a semi-informed observer, I agree with Ibbitson.

Québec has been struggling for fifty years with the legacy of Jean LeSage’s Quiet Revolution.  While they succeeded in casting aside while Michel Brunet called “les trois dominantes de la pensée canadienne-française: l’agriculturisme, le messianisme et l’anti-étatisme.”

They failed to find useful replacements except for misusing and abusing Lesage’s creation of Hydro Québec as a tool for advancing the social and economic prospects of French Québecers.  What LeSage intended as a launch pad became, instead, the foundation of a statist society based on the already failing French model.

LeSage is, I think, the ‘father’ of Dumont’s political thinking which I see as being autonomism on the maitres chez nous model.  Dumont will get that only if/when Harper has a solid majority, with the likelihood of another to follow, so that he can introduce a radical transformation of the balance of powers between the federal government and those of the provinces.  I think Canadians will hear Québec’s case for further ‘autonomy’ only within the context of equal autonomy for Ontario, New Brunswick and all the others, too.

 
I think Canadians will hear Québec’s case for further ‘autonomy’ only within the context of equal autonomy for Ontario, New Brunswick and all the others, too

That's not necessarily a bad thing.
 
GAP said:
That's not necessarily a bad thing.

Agreed.  The Federal model doesn't seem to work very well in Canada.  I believe that this is because of the strength built into the central government by the constitution esp sect 91 & 92. 

Trudeau invoked the fears of many Canadains with his "Federal government as the head-waiter to the provinces" quip, but what those same people didn't recognize would come of this mentality is what we have now, the provinces as indentured servants of the federal government.

 
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from today’s National Post, is yet more:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/columnists/story.html?id=5c7f5f99-e3ba-4c8b-90b3-e2b8eb59423a
A vote against the other guys

Andrew Coyne
National Post

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

MONTREAL - "The key to this thing is turnout," the veteran Liberal strategist was telling me. "If the turnout is low, say 70 to 75%, I'd say a majority is within reach. If it's above 75%, it's a minority. Liberals always do well when there's a low turnout."

Well. We can consign that bit of wisdom to the dustbin, along with much else we thought we knew about Quebec. The turnout, as it, er, turned out, was just 71% -- barely above the all-time low of 70% recorded in the last election. That may not sound too bad in this age of declining voter interest, but turnout is generally higher in Quebec than elsewhere: in previous elections, it has ranged as high as 85%.

So we should be wary of the new wisdom, as much as the old. Historic, realigning elections -- think of 1976, 1970, 1960 -- are usually reflected in high turnouts, a surge of "throw the bums out" sentiment. That wasn't the case here. There's no denying the Action democratique du Quebec has achieved a spectacular breakthrough, jumping from five seats to 41 and nearly doubling its share of the popular vote from pre-election polls.

But it seems to be less a matter of a wave of enthusiasm for the ADQ as it is boredom with the old-line parties. Some voters switched from the Liberals and the Parti Quebecois to the Adequistes. The rest stayed home.

Much of that, in turn, seems to have been about the party leaders. It would be hard to describe this as a campaign of ideas. The ADQ came closest, for example with its proposal to abolish the province's school boards. But for the most part its appeal was rooted in the person of Mario Dumont --just as voters' disdain for the other two parties must surely be attributed, in large part, to widespread disaffection for their respective leaders. Much of this was deserved -- it would be hard to think of two weaker figures, even in Canadian politics -- but it would be interesting to see how the parties might have fared with a leader who was not either a coke-snorting homosexual or -- worse -- suspected of English sympathies.

Yes, but. Explain it away all you want, you can't argue with the numbers: the worst popular vote showing for the Parti Quebecois since its first election, in 1970. The worst for the Liberals since ? ever. In 37 elections since 1867, the Liberal Party of Quebec had never got less than 33.8% of the vote. That was Robert Bourassa's score in 1976, when he was the "most hated man in Quebec" after six years of scandal and corruption. And Mr. Charest, governing in good times, untouched by major scandal, has done worse.

Mr. Charest, moreover, who was the beneficiary of perhaps the most concentrated campaign of federal support in the history of Quebec, going back to Paul Martin's "asymmetric federalism" policy, through Stephen Harper's pledge of "open federalism," the recognition of Quebecers as a nation, the seat at UNESCO, and culminating in the grotesque multi-billion-dollar bribe in last week's federal budget, the resolution (so it was said) of the "fiscal imbalance."

And after all this -- indeed, after 40 years of this -- what is the result? The lowest popular vote in history for the only party in Quebec that is even nominally "federalist." Mr. Harper and Mr. Charest have stretched the federation further than it has ever been stretched before, and two thirds of the Quebec electorate have voted for parties that would go further yet.

So while everyone is celebrating the demise of the Parti Quebecois, and saluting the strategic genius of Mr. Harper, bear this in mind. Mr. Harper bet the farm on Mr. Charest -- and lost. In the process, having ratified nationalist mythologies, appealed to nationalist prejudices, argued from nationalist principles, he has only whetted Quebecers' appetite for more concessions. True, he will probably benefit personally from the PQ's collapse -- the Bloc must be feeling positively ill at the prospect of a spring election-- but we should not assume the rise of Mr. Dumont and the ADQ is as much of an unalloyed boon to the Conservatives as presented. And even if it is in the Conservatives' interests, it may not be in Canada's.

Mr. Dumont, often praised as a principled politician in Mr. Harper's mould, is in fact as inconstant as a summer rain shower -- or, for that matter, as Mr. Harper -- and on the most fundamental of questions. A decade ago he was for separation. Five years ago, he was for status quo federalism. Now he is for "autonomism," the latest in a long line of pseudonyms for that most unworkable of constitutional models, special status, in which Quebec would be under none of the constraints of federalism, but would enjoy all of its privileges.

On the other hand, he must know that he owes little of his success to this. Quebecers voted, not for what was in his constitutional platform, but for what wasn't: namely, the obligation to choose. For reasons of their own, both Mr. Charest and Mr. Boisclair tried to polarize the debate in this election, on traditional federalist-separatist lines. There's some evidence that Quebecers would like to change the subject in that regard, and for that let us be truly thankful, or at least hopeful. But more than that, Quebecers hate having to choose between them.

That is why separatists have only ever been able to appeal to them by giving their plans soothing- sounding labels like sovereignty- association, political-and economic-partnership and so on, and why federalists are always pretending there is some halfway house of special status available to them. Mr. Dumont, in this light, looks a lot less new or revolutionary than he pretends.

Moreover, Mr. Dumont wants, above all, to become premier. To do that, he must erase the perception/ reality that his party is a one-man band, its caucus at best inexperienced in governing, at worst a bunch of yahoos. Is his agenda advanced by chasing constitutional rainbows, or by demostrating managerial competence, pursuing practical solutions to the problems that really confront Quebec today -- namely, the crushing burden of living in what is North America's most overtaxed, overindebted, overregulated jurisdiction?

Much, then, will depend on the course Mr. Dumont adopts. If he focuses, in the position of influence he now holds, on cleaning things up at home, reducing the size and reach of the state, all will be well, for Quebec and Canada. But if instead he pursues his autonomist agenda, then Mr. Harper is in for a big headache, as are we.

© National Post 2007


There is that old curse about living in interesting times, but that little wee tiny minority of Canadians who think that the Constitution ought to be reopened and revised are also reminded that danger = opportunity.

I think Canada, as currently (and unconstitutionally) constituted cannot be held together.  Many of the powers of the central government were grabbed during times of crises (World Wars I and II).  The ‘residual’ powers in the Constitution have proven to be politically useless – the powers which can be used to influence most people most directly belong to the provinces; the national government intrudes only because it is politically advantageous to do so.

It doesn’t require a constitutional convention for the national government to act constitutionally by vacating areas on provincial jurisdiction – leaving tax room behind. 

Equally, it does not require any constitutional changes for the national government to partially reform the Senate by making it an elected chamber; I have written about that here in the Canadian Politics pages but it is a whole other subject.

The fly in the recent constitutional negotiation has been special status for Québec – and only for Québec.  Québecers, politicians and citoyens alike must get to grips with the fact that Canadians outside of Québec are unwilling to allow any further, meaningful special status.

If Québec wants new powers it has two choices:

1. Work with the national government to delegate those powers to all provinces; or

2. Leave the federation.

Either option will work to Canada’s long term advantage.  The status quo will not.


 
Moreover, Mr. Dumont Harper wants, above all, to become premier Prime Minister. To do that, he must erase the perception/ reality that his party is a one-man band, its caucus at best inexperienced in governing, at worst a bunch of yahoos. Is his agenda advanced by chasing constitutional conservative rainbows, or by demostrating managerial competence, pursuing practical solutions to the problems that really confront Quebec Canada today -- namely, the crushing burden of living in what is North America's most overtaxed, overindebted, overregulated jurisdiction?

I thought this looked familliar.  ;D
 
E.R. Campbell said:
But: the Globe and Mail’s Jeffrey Simpson and John Ibbitson† (both of whom deserve our attention when they stay in their lanes and deal with national politics) declare that the equally fundamental disconnect between Francophone Québecers and other Canadians is growing.

In my opinion Québec is out of step with Canada and if we can or even should maintain a unified Canada then it may be that vastly increased autonomism (for all five‡ regions) is the only way to manage the federation.

Which Canadians and which Quebecers Edward?

I would suggest that if Ukrainian Catholics, German Lutherans and Scots Presbyterians in Ibbitson's "small towns" can find common ground then it is not too much of a leap for them to find common ground with French Catholics in Quebec......if communication and education are allowed to occur. Heck we even managed to figure out how to get along with "dogans, teagues and bog trotters".

No.  The more fundamental split is between Urban and Rural Canada.  The Liberals are solidly vested in the University Culture of Urban Canada ..... multiculturalism and elitism but more importantly a willingness to modify their behaviour to prevent fists and noses coming into contact while living in close confines.  The people in Rural Canada derive from people who wanted more space so as to prevent fists and noses coming into contact without modifying their behaviour.....whatever that may be.  Note that neither type of person wants a fight.....they just choose different methods of accomodating that desire.

The suburbs are a battle ground because we have children of the people that want space but are forced by the need for income to live in proximity living cheek by jowl with people used to conforming behaviour to that of the group.

The urban solution to every problem is to find an answer, whether by compromise or fiat and enforce it.  The rural inclination is to let people do what they want just so long as they do it on their own land and don't bother the neighbours.....and by no means don't make me do it on my land.

Individual rough stones can survive well in isolation.  There is nothing to wear on them and no need to change.

Rough stones are forced to become smooth when tumbled together with other rough stones but the process is long, painful, gritty and wearing and at the end each  individual stone is diminished.  Eventually you end up losing many of the smaller stones and end up with a few highly polished pebbles and a lot of indistiguishable grit. 

I think the Liberal Culture has reached a high water mark (sorry for the mixed metaphor) in that the wearing process in Canada has produced a small number of pebbles concentrated in Urban Canada and clustered around universities, a large number of Canadians that have been reduced to grit and a diminishing supply of raw material in the form of rough stones.  Those few that are left are not willing to put themselves into the urban grinder.  That is true in St-Agapit, Quebec just as much as it is true in Glenmore, Alberta or Parry Sound, Ontario or Saulnierville, Nova Scotia.
,
 
Kirkhill said:
...
I would suggest that if Ukrainian Catholics, German Lutherans and Scots Presbyterians in Ibbitson's "small towns" can find common ground then it is not too much of a leap for them to find common ground with French Catholics in Quebec......if communication and education are allowed to occur. Heck we even managed to figure out how to get along with "dogans, teagues and bog trotters".
...

That's what Mulroney believed, too.

It seemed to work until Bouchard's Quebec didn't get what it wanted.

I believe that the institutionalized humiliation which is carefully and forcefully retaught to each generation of Quebecers is able to overcome all the common factors which might exist.
 
Kirkhill said:
...  The more fundamental split is between Urban and Rural Canada.  The Liberals are solidly vested in the University Culture of Urban Canada ..... multiculturalism and elitism but more importantly a willingness to modify their behaviour to prevent fists and noses coming into contact while living in close confines.  The people in Rural Canada derive from people who wanted more space so as to prevent fists and noses coming into contact without modifying their behaviour.....whatever that may be.  Note that neither type of person wants a fight.....they just choose different methods of accomodating that desire.

The suburbs are a battle ground because we have children of the people that want space but are forced by the need for income to live in proximity living cheek by jowl with people used to conforming behaviour to that of the group.
...

I agree that split is terribly important - within and beyond Quebec, but I doubt that it is anything like as deep as the French/English split which is, I would offer, deeper than the English/French one.

If one is a member of the urban-English majority (the Toronto/Calgary/Vancouver axis) then Quebec is only slightly more different than, say, Palmer Rapids (that's in Renfrew County - NW of Ottawa, by the way).  If one is French, even from cosmopolitan, polyglot Montreal, then les autres, urban and rural alike, are all very, very different from nous.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
as deep as the French/English split which is, I would offer, deeper than the English/French one.

Wouldn't both be as deep ?

I'm puzzled.
 
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