Run Up to Election 2019

[PuckChaser]

Has that happened often under FPTP here?  Opposition getting more popular vote?

Did some research, apparently popular vote counts before 1960 are a crap shoot but it's only ever happened in a minority government situation, last one being 1979 election with Joe Clark at 36% and Trudeau Sr at 40%, but the Tories had more seats.

The left typically use the meme that XX% of people DIDN'T vote for the right leaning candidate, so therefore the results aren't legitimate. They forget that it is exceedingly difficult to gain both a majority of seats and majority of popular vote in the FPTP system, so all those Liberal PMs must not have been legitimate either.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Did some research, apparently popular vote counts before 1960 are a crap shoot but it's only ever happened in a minority government situation, last one being 1979 election with Joe Clark at 36% and Trudeau Sr at 40%, but the Tories had more seats.

Thanks for the digging - much appreciated!

The left typically use the meme that XX% of people DIDN'T vote for the right leaning candidate, so therefore the results aren't legitimate. They forget that it is exceedingly difficult to gain both a majority of seats and majority of popular vote in the FPTP system, so all those Liberal PMs must not have been legitimate either.

It wasn't the left meme-ing this argument after PMJT got in - and you're bang on re:  FPTP & popular vote #'s.

Circling back to your original question, how likely do you see a Conservative popular vote majority this time (realizing it's still early days)?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Trudeau goes full on despot and obstructs the RCMP from investigating his crimes and we're discussing FPTP. : :rofl:

 

[PuckChaser]

Circling back to your original question, how likely do you see a Conservative popular vote majority this time (realizing it's still early days)?

With a majority of the Liberal support firmly entrenched in the echo-chamber that is the GTA, I really can't see any scenario that the Tories end up with the lead in popular vote. They're too good at using the system as intended: targetting swing ridings with low populations to gain seats. The only way I see GTA support faltering is with a criminal indictment of Justin Trudeau for the SNC Lavalin scandal, which is seeming less likely after they blocked investigator access to documents that some experts even think a search warrant won't overturn.

 

[Remius]

Thanks for the digging - much appreciated!
It wasn't the left meme-ing this argument after PMJT got in - and you're bang on re:  FPTP & popular vote #'s.

Circling back to your original question, how likely do you see a Conservative popular vote majority this time (realizing it's still early days)?

I remember when the PCs were reduced to 2 seats in the HoC.  Joe Clark tried to make a case for party status based on their popular vote which was still quite high.

Parties care when it affects them.  Not so much when it's someone else.