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Saudi Arabia monarchy succession crisis could lead to discord

CougarKing

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It would be better if the UK-educated, RSAF Tornado pilot, Muqrin got it than any of the other anti-Western crackpots who might want to get on the throne...

From Business Insider via Yahoo Finance

Here Comes The Saudi Dynasty Succession Crisis ...
Business Insider
By Michael B. Kelley

The Saudi dynasty is facing its biggest dynastic challenge in 50 years, and Game of Thrones-style cracks are showing in the imminent transition  from King Abdullah’s rule.

Liz Sly of The Washington Post details growing discontent in the royal family after the contentious appointment of the  king’s youngest brother, Muqrin,
as the deputy heir.

The choice of Muqrin, a British-educated fighter pilot who has close ties to the U.S., is controversial partly because he is the  son of a Yemeni concubine who was never formally married to his father, King Abdulaziz Al-Saud,  who founded the Saudi state  in 1932.


“He is not a real prince; his mother was a slave and there are other brothers who are more competent,” a former Saudi official told Sly. “Nobody believes Muqrin can become king.”

The newly-created title effectively allows Muqrin, 69, to bypass at least two other brothers, which goes against the unspoken rule that succession passes down according to age.

King Abdullah is believed to be around 90 and his  immediate successor, Crown Prince Salman, is 79.  Both are in poor health.

Over the last six decades, the succession mostly passed brother to brother in order of their age. But the last of the current line of brothers will die soon, passing power to the third generation of the family.


(...EDITED)
 
There are always stiff competitions to the throne. There are also differences of political opinions and religious opinions. I'd rather choose King Abdullah's successor than let Saudi Arabia fall into an Al Qaeda sympathizer prince like one of my co-workers whom I overheard discussing on how to outwit Pakistani military intelligence in his sympathies with Al Qaeda.
 
barrister4sale said:
There are always stiff competitions to the throne. There are also differences of political opinions and religious opinions. I'd rather choose King Abdullah's successor than let Saudi Arabia fall into an Al Qaeda sympathizer prince like one of my co-workers whom I overheard discussing on how to outwit Pakistani military intelligence in his sympathies with Al Qaeda.

You work with a guy who is a Prince of Saud? I got no idea who you are or what you do, but for now, I'm going to call bullshit.

Please prove me wrong.
 
recceguy said:
You work with a guy who is a Prince of Saud? I got no idea who you are or what you do, but for now, I'm going to call bullshit.

Please prove me wrong.

Sayed Ali and Khuram Ali who related to me their experiences of riding with their Saudi father in a convoy and hitting a cow thereby causing all the residents in India to come out with machets because the cow is sacred in India.
 
My suspicion is we will see a lockdown on the kingdom, while the family knives are out, the Shia population might get restive or the Iranians will use it to stir things up in the Kingdom. I have no doubt that the family will come together if it even appears they are losing a little of their grip on power.
 
"Our (Saudi) "lost" brothers can easily be tamed. We're the only ones who have to stand up for each other. Do you think an Al Qaeda would coddle us no matter how zealous we are? My brothers cut a lot of heads off. Al Qaeda would never consider us sacrosanct"- Tariq ____, CSE and Bernie _____,.
 
oscar2 said:
"Our (Saudi) "lost" brothers can easily be tamed. We're the only ones who have to stand up for each other. Do you think an Al Qaeda would coddle us no matter how zealous we are? My brothers cut a lot of heads off. Al Qaeda would never consider us sacrosanct"- Tariq ____, CSE and Bernie _____,.

:facepalm:
 
ha!...reading oscar2's post were highly entertaining to me.  Im in Saudi Arabia and its always enjoyable to read what people spew as fact about this place.
 
just me... said:
ha!...reading oscar2's post were highly entertaining to me.  Im in Saudi Arabia and its always enjoyable to read what people spew as fact about this place.

For your info.....oscar2 is a habitual spammer of this site and may have some issues that require professional attention, which none on this site are qualified to give.

You may notice some of his previous incarnations on this site, such as 'barrister4sale' above, all banned.
 
Luckily TE Lawrence has already written the manual for working with the Saudis.... or the upper echelons of corporate North America  ;D

http://www.gwpda.org/1917/27arts.html
 
George Wallace said:
For your info.....oscar2 is a habitual spammer of this site and may have some issues that require professional attention, which none on this site are qualified to give.

You may notice some of his previous incarnations on this site, such as 'barrister4sale' above, all banned.

ahhhh...seen.  Thanks for the background George.
 
Re-produced under the usual caveats of the Copyright Act.

Saudi King Abdullah dies, brother Salman takes over

Thomson Reuters Posted: Jan 22, 2015 6:29 PM ET Last Updated: Jan 22, 2015 6:47 PM ET

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has died, state television reported early on Friday, and his brother Salman has become the new king.

"His Highness Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and all members of the family and the nation mourn the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, who passed away at exactly 1 a.m. this morning," said a statement attributed to Salman.

Abdullah, thought to have been born in 1923, had ruled Saudi Arabia as king since 2006, but had run the country as de facto regent for a decade before that after his predecessor King Fahd suffered a debilitating stroke.

King Salman, thought to be 79, has been crown prince and defence minister since 2012. He was governor of Riyadh province for five decades before that.

In his statement, Salman called on the family's Allegiance Council to approve Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, Abdullah's half-brother, as his crown prince and heir.

By immediately appointing Muqrin as his heir, subject to the approval of a family Allegiance Council, Salman has moved to avert widespread speculation about the immediate path of the royal succession in the world's top oil exporter.

Article Link

Well, I'm sure this will liven things up.
 
And more from the Washington Times:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jan/22/saudi-king-abdullah-bin-abdulaziz-has-died-91/print/

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia dies

By Dave Boyer and Douglas Ernst - The Washington Times - Updated: 7:44 p.m. on Thursday, January 22, 2015
Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz has died at the age of 91, the nation's state-run television station confirmed Thursday.

The king was in the hospital at the time of death.

News outlets suspected the king, who came to power in 2005, was dead when Saudi Arabian television stations began playing Quranic verses. He passed away at 1:00 a.m. local time, BBC reported.

Born in Riyadh in 1924, Abdullah was one of the dozens of sons of Saudi Arabia's founder, King Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, The Associated Press reported Friday. When Abdullah's half-brother Fahd suffered a stroke in 1995, he became the kingdom's ruler.

King Abdullah will be succeeded by his 79-year-old half-brother, Crown Prince Salman. The Saudi monarch had more than 30 children from around a dozen wives, The Associated Press reported Thursday.

President Obama expressed with "deep respect" and his personal condolences and "the sympathies of the American people" to Saudi Arabians over the death of King Abdullah on Thursday.

"As our countries worked together to confront many challenges, I always valued King Abdullah's perspective and appreciated our genuine and warm friendship," Mr. Obama said in a statement. "As a leader, he was always candid and had the courage of his convictions."

He added, "One of those convictions was his steadfast and passionate belief in the importance of the U.S.-Saudi relationship as a force for stability and security in the Middle East and beyond. The closeness and strength of the partnership between our two countries is part of King Abdullah's legacy."

"King Abdullah's life spanned from before the birth of modern Saudi Arabia through its emergence as a critical force within the global economy and a leader among Arab and Islamic nations," Mr. Obama said. "He took bold steps in advancing the Arab Peace Initiative, an endeavor that will outlive him as an enduring contribution to the search for peace in the region."

The president said the king demonstrated a vision at home "dedicated to the education of his people and to greater engagement with the world."
Mr. Obama's statement concluded, "May God grant him peace."

Former President George H.W. Bush released a statement on the Saudi king's death on Thursday, saying "I am deeply saddened to learn of the passing of my dear friend and partner King Abdullah. As President, I always found His Majesty to always be a wise and reliable ally, helping our relations build on a strategic relationship and enduring friendship dating back to World War II."

Mr. Bush also said that he would "never forget" the support of Saudi Arabia during the invasion of Kuwait.

"Barbara and the entire Bush family joins me in sending our most sincere condolences to all our friends in Saudi Arabia," Mr. Bush's statement added.

© Copyright 2015 The Washington Times, LLC.

One can only wonder if this will signal any changes to Saudi Arabia's current policies re: the war against ISIS, Iran or the oil war vs Russia and the West (among others).
 
I think we need an expert on the familial power struggle of the Saudi family to figure out which way the wind will blow.  Also it doesn't help that the new king is 79 years old either.  Might lead to a string of power change overs without any one solidifying their grasp.

Too long didn't read version:  :dunno:
 
Looks like that Region is about to destabilize very quickly, throwing what little is left of the Middle East and Southwest Asia into one large blood bath.

Posted in other thread this:

Old Sweat said:
Sorry to post this hear but I just saw a report that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has died. There is no telling what this will do to the stability of what is an already unstable and volatile region.

I was going to say that predicting what we may or may not do is a bit of a mug's game as things are changing rapidly, and now this just reinforces that. Let's watch and shoot.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah dies
BBC
22 January 2015 Last updated at 19:36 ET

Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz has died in hospital, royal officials have announced.

A statement, made early on Friday, said his brother, Salman, had become king.

Before the announcement, Saudi television cut to Koranic verses, which often signifies the death of a senior royal.

King Abdullah, who was said to be aged about 90, had been in hospital for several weeks suffering from a lung infection.

Abdullah came to the throne in 2005 but had suffered frequent bouts of ill health in recent years.

King Salman, 79, had recently taken on the ailing monarch's responsibilities.

The late king's half brother Muqrin, who is in his late 60s, has been named the new crown prince, the official statement said.

All three are sons of the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz, usually referred to as Ibn Saud, who died in 1953.

King Salman called on the royal family's Allegiance Council to recognise Muqrin as his crown prince and heir.

"His Highness Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud and all members of the family and the nation mourn the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, who passed away at exactly 1am this morning," the statement said.

US President Barack Obama expressed his personal sympathies and those of the American people, on the death of King Abdullah.

"As a leader, he was always candid and had the courage of his convictions. One of those convictions was his steadfast and passionate belief in the importance of the US-Saudi relationship as a force for stability and security in the Middle East and beyond," he said.

Abdullah was the 13th of the 37 sons of King Abdulaziz. He is believed to have been born in August 1924 in Riyadh, although there is some dispute about his actual birth date.

When he came to the throne in 2005 he succeeded another half-brother, Fahd.

However, he had already been Saudi Arabia's de-facto leader for 10 years because his predecessor had been debilitated by a stroke.

Correspondents say Abdullah was seen as a reformer at home, albeit a slow and steady one.

He allowed mild criticism of his government in the press, and hinted that more women should be allowed to work.

More on This Story
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More on LINK.



AND

Yemeni Government Collapses as President and Prime Minister Resign
New York Times
By SHUAIB ALMOSAWA and ROD NORDLANDJAN. 22, 2015

SANA, Yemen — The pro-American president of Yemen abruptly resigned Thursday night along with his prime minister and cabinet, leaving his Houthi opponents the dominant force in a leaderless country that is a breeding ground for Al Qaeda.

The Houthis, who are allied with Iran, have been strongly critical of the United States, particularly opposing Yemen’s cooperation with drone strikes against the Qaeda affiliate here, Al Qaeda in Yemen. At the same time, the Houthis, whose leaders are members of the Zaydi sect of Shiite Islam, are bitter opponents of Al Qaeda, which is Sunni.

The resignation of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi came immediately after an apparently unsuccessful meeting between government and Houthi representatives, brokered by the United Nations special envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar. It was intended to help carry out an agreement between the two sides that had been reached a day earlier.

Mr. Hadi’s abrupt resignation caught American officials off guard. Diplomats, military officials and counterterrorism analysts were scrambling to assess next steps, including any decisions to evacuate Americans at the United States Embassy and the impact on counterterrorism operations in Yemen.

“We’re not in a position — and I don’t think any of you are either — to assess what it means at this point in time,” the State Department spokeswoman, Jen Psaki, told reporters in Washington as news of Mr. Hadi’s resignation was breaking.

“Our top priority in Yemen remains the counterterrorism effort, where we’ve been targeting Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula for a number of years,” said Ms. Psaki, using another name for Al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate. “That’s ongoing.”

Some American officials and lawmakers in Washington expressed grave concern. “The collapse of the government is devastating,” Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said in a telephone interview. “It’s very hard to say what comes after.”

Should the Houthis try to govern the country themselves, Mr. Schiff said, it could escalate sectarian violence with Yemen’s Sunni majority, and open the door for Al Qaeda to expand its reach.

“The Sunni tribes will not want to live under Houthi domination, and will look for any allies they can, including Al Qaeda,” he said.

With Houthi fighters already in control of much of the capital and many areas of northern Yemen, it seemed likely that they would take at least de facto control of the government.

A further concern is the prospect that southern Yemen will try to break away from the north, possibly threatening another civil war. The Houthis are identified with the old Kingdom of Yemen and the Arab Republic based in the north. The north and south were unified in 1990. In addition, they have aligned themselves with Yemen’s ousted former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced out in a deal brokered by the United States and Middle Eastern allies in 2011.

The resignation of Mr. Hadi, who was elected to succeed Mr. Saleh, came less than an hour after Prime Minister Khaled Mahfoudh Bahah said on his Facebook page that he and all of the cabinet members were stepping down. Their resignations came while the United Nations-brokered meeting was underway.

The press secretary for Mr. Hadi said he had formally handed over power to the speaker of Parliament, Yahya al-Raye, who would be required by the Constitution to form a caretaker government. It was not clear, however, if Mr. Raye was taking charge.

An official close to the president, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of apparent concerns about his safety, said in a phone interview that the president believed that he had no choice but to resign. “The president expresses his disappointment at the difficult circumstances and challenges surrounding what is going on from the conflict with the Houthis,” said the official, sounding nervous and hanging up immediately.

The agreement reached on Wednesday brought a temporary end to fighting in the capital, but Houthi fighters did not leave as promised from their posts around the presidential palace, and some officials described their actions as amounting to a coup.

The Houthis denied that, however, and as an apparent concession, by Thursday had withdrawn from their positions around Mr. Hadi’s personal residence. On Thursday only private guards from Mr. Hadi’s home province, Abyan, could be seen outside his home.

Emissaries from both Mr. Hadi and Houthi leaders were seen visiting one another Thursday in an atmosphere of calm, and there were no initial reports of fighting after the resignations.

There were reports of violence in the province of Marib, an important oil-producing area east of Sana, with the Houthis clashing with Sunni tribesmen. Marib is also home to fighters from Al Qaeda in Yemen. Two people were reported killed on Thursday, according to elders in the area.

Mr. Benomar, a Moroccan diplomat and the representative of the United Nations secretary general, had returned to Sana on Thursday and immediately gone into meetings with representatives of Mr. Hadi and the Houthis.

The Houthis had agreed to pull back their fighters from central installations in Sana, including the palace, in exchange for several political concessions from Mr. Hadi, like amendments to a draft constitution. The deal was widely seen as a victory for the group, which has repeatedly used military force as a cudgel during political negotiations.

Another central provision of the agreement — the immediate release of one of Mr. Hadi’s top aides — also remained unfulfilled late Thursday. Yemen’s information minister, Nadia Sakkaf, said on Twitter that the aide, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, was still being held hostage by the Houthis despite a deal.

“They got what they want,” she said. “Why should they fulfill their promise?”

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, confirmed that Mr. Mubarak had not been freed.

In signing the deal, the Houthis had stopped short of a military takeover of the government, an outcome that analysts said the Houthi leadership preferred. Since taking over parts of the capital in September, the Houthis have become Yemen’s de facto ruling power, exerting control over important ministries and, increasingly, the country’s security forces.

At the same time, they have been able to lay blame for continuing challenges — including corruption and meager government services throughout the country — at the feet of Mr. Hadi and his leadership.

In addition to the crisis in Sana, many in Yemen have also been looking nervously to Marib, as a point of contention for the tensions unleashed by the Houthis’ military advances.

The Houthis are eager to assert their control in the province, which includes much of Yemen’s oil infrastructure and is seen as a strategic gateway to other parts of the country. But in a country that is two-thirds Sunni, Al Qaeda has been able to gain support among many opposed to the Houthis, breathing new energy into what had been a greatly weakened extremist movement.

The Houthis’ plans have prompted resistance and a furious reaction from Sunni tribesmen in the province, including some aligned with Islah, Yemen’s most prominent Sunni Islamist movement — now eviscerated by the Houthis, who considered it a hated rival. The province also has many followers of Al Qaeda in Yemen, whose opposition to the Houthis has helped them recruit there.

Saudi Arabia, which has recoiled at what it sees as the Houthis’ strong ties to Shiite Iran, has begun sending aid to the tribes in Marib, according to diplomats, raising fears that the province will become a focal point for an escalating proxy war.

Shuaib Almosawa reported from Sana, and Rod Nordland from Amman, Jordan. Nasser Arrabyee contributed reporting from Sana, Kareem Fahim from Baghdad, and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

More on LINK.



With Yemen falling deeper into chaos, the only large countries, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, are left on the Arabian Peninsula to fall under the influences of radicals.  Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that’s not a member of OPEC, joined Venezuela and Iran in questioning the group’s decision to keep its output target unchanged even with crude prices falling.  This places them in a position to be butting heads with OPEC members, which include the Saudis.
 
From Bloomberg News, re-produced under the Fair Dealings section of the Copyright Act.

Oil Jumps as Saudi King’s Death Stokes Concern Over OPEC Policy
By Ben Sharples and Sharon Cho Jan 22, 2015 9:08 PM ET

Oil jumped after the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Futures advanced as much as 3.1 percent in New York and 2.6 percent in London after the Saudi Press Agency announced the death, citing a statement from the royal court. Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz will succeed as king, according to state television. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, led OPEC’s decision to maintain its oil-production quota at a meeting in November, exacerbating a global supply glut that’s driven prices lower.

“The passing of King Abdullah is going to increase uncertainty and increase volatility in oil prices in the near term,” Neil Beveridge, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said by phone. “I wouldn’t expect a change in policy in the near term to be known, but the passing comes at a challenging time for Saudi Arabia.”

Oil fell almost 50 percent last year as the U.S. pumped at the fastest rate in more than three decades and OPEC resisted calls to cut output. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, rose by 10.1 million barrels through Jan. 16, the Energy Information Administration reported Thursday. That was the biggest volume increase since March 2001.
Policy Uncertainty

West Texas Intermediate for March delivery climbed as much as $1.45 to $47.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $47.08 at 12:44 p.m. Sydney time. The contract dropped $1.47 to $46.31 on Thursday. The volume of all futures traded was about 77 percent above the 100-day average. Prices are down 3.3 percent this week.

Brent for March settlement gained as much as $1.28 to $49.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $2.22 to WTI, compared with $1.04 on Jan. 16.

King Abdullah oversaw a fivefold increase in the size of the Arab world’s biggest economy and met the Arab Spring with a mixture of force and largesse. He died after almost a decade on the throne. He was born in 1924.

“The market is reacting bullishly to this news because it may usher in a period of uncertainty as far as Saudi policies going forward as new leadership takes over,” said Andy Lipow, the president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC, an energy consultant in Houston, Texas.
King Salman

OPEC’s 12 members, which supply about 40 percent of the world’s oil, maintained their collective production target at 30 million barrels a day at a Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna. Output averaged 30.2 million in December, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Saudi Arabia pumped 9.5 million a day last month.

King Salman, in his previous capacity as crown prince, read a speech on behalf of the late monarch on Jan. 6 that confirmed the continuity of Saudi oil policy in the face of market “tensions” caused by slow growth in the global economy.

A key indicator will be whether Salman, 79, retains the oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, who has driven decision-making since 1995. Al-Naimi, who turns 80 this year, has said he’d like to devote more time to his other job as the chairman of the science and technology university named after the late sovereign.

“There’s the possibility that Ali al-Naimi could be replaced as oil minister,” said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The biggest concern is uncertainty. But, because the world is awash in oil, the reaction was muted.”

The king’s death also raises the question of whether instability across the Middle East will intensify, according to Flynn. King Abdullah had “done a good job trying to subdue” insurgents in the country, and Saudi Arabia may face increasing pressure from them now that he’s gone, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net; Sharon Cho in Singapore at ccho28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Pratish Narayanan at pnarayanan9@bloomberg.net Yee Kai Pin, Aaron Clark

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