The Ongoing Hunt for Osama bin Laden

[dapaterson]

The Ongoing Hunt for Osama bin Laden
He's still out there. The hunt for bin Laden.
By Evan Thomas

Sept. 3, 2007 issue - The Americans were getting close. It was early in the winter of 2004-05, and Osama bin Laden and his entourage were holed up in a mountain hideaway along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Suddenly, a sentry, posted several kilometers away, spotted a patrol of U.S. soldiers who seemed to be heading straight for bin Laden's redoubt. The sentry radioed an alert, and word quickly passed among the Qaeda leader's 40-odd bodyguards to prepare to remove "the Sheik," as bin Laden is known to his followers, to a fallback position. As Sheik Said, a senior Egyptian Qaeda operative, later told the story, the anxiety level was so high that the bodyguards were close to using the code word to kill bin Laden and commit suicide. According to Said, bin Laden had decreed that he would never be captured. "If there's a 99 percent risk of the Sheik's being captured, he told his men that they should all die and martyr him as well," Said told Omar Farooqi, a Taliban liaison officer to Al Qaeda who spoke to a NEWSWEEK reporter in Afghanistan.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20430170/site/newsweek/print/1/displaymode/1098/

 

[Weinie]

  Very interesting article

 

[R.O.S]

So all the west needs to do is sneak up behind bin Laden and yell "BOO", then he or his bodygaurds blow his head off.... I waint I have an idea, there should be scarecrows lined up along the border that look like allied forces. But seriously, interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Greymatters]

Its not that hard to hide even nowadays, especially if you have money and a supportive environment/community.  Many Nazi war criminals disappeared into South America and Africa after WW2 and have never been found again.  Numerous terrorists out there from a variety of groups are still resting comfortably under assumed names in countries worldwide.  The same goes for a plethora of criminals and black marketeers out there, who make their deals and disappear. For those who remember Bosnia, SFOR was trying to locate Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadžić (Bosnian-Serb war criminals) for over five years in Bosnia and we had over 13,000 soldiers there, but still never got them (as far as we know anyway).  So when a single man is hiding in the mountains in the middle of nowhere and is supported by a local population, it shouldn't surprise anyone he's still out there uncaught.       

 

[Bobby Rico]

Honestly, I doubt Bin Laden will ever be found alive.  If I were a betting man, I'd put money on one of his own people killing him, or his body just turning up one day.

 

[retiredgrunt45]

Good article. I think that's the only way we are going to find him, "by accident".

The man has almost infinite rescources, with a very loyal fanatical following. If we haven't found him by now, chances are we never will.

 

[Flip]

If he were found - what then?
I think he is more useful (to NATO) alive.

Remember how long we happily waited to see Darth Vader get it?
Every story (fact or fiction) needs a villian.

Support for the good guys and their mission would evaporate
if the enemy had no figure head.
Without BinLaden to go, after NATO is just picking on farmers

Just my little little thoughts.

 

[retiredgrunt45]

You may be onto something their Flip. Maybe that's what they want us to believe, that they can't find him, while all the time they could have gotten him anytime they wanted. It seems with all the technology at their disposal, were one can sit back push a button and read a licence plate from 20,000 miles up in space, they couldn't find one sick Bin Laden.

We may never know who those shooters were on the grassy knole.........

 

[Flip]

I wasn't floating yet another conspiracy hypothesis.....

Just saying "cookies crumble"

 

[Brockvegas]

So when a single man is hiding in the mountains in the middle of nowhere and is supported by a local population, it shouldn't surprise anyone he's still out there uncaught.       

I would have to agree with this unfortunatley. We're looking for someone who's hiding in a country that he knows like the back of his own hand. Hell, I know the back country of Ontario well enough that if I ever decided to "disappear", there's nobody in the world that could ever find me. And that's on my own without any "resources" or "support network" like he has.

 

[retiredgrunt45]

I know, but it sounded good ;D

 

[1feral1]

They may have killed him already, and we'll never know. LIke the Russians with Hitler. If OBL is ever captured alive, what will they do with him?

He is best to be swiftly shot by a squad of Spooks, secretly cremated, ashes to blow into the desert, and quickly forgotten.

Ya, a 5.56mm ball rd to the back of the head!


Wes

 

[NL_engineer]

Not the CIA's style, they cut of the head and hands, ship them back to the US, then burn/bury the body (most cases of this in South America between the late 60's to the late 80's; Che for example)



Edited for spelling

 

[Flip]

Summary execution? too easy for him.
And why were there orders to shoot him if he might be captured?

In my opinion. He should stand trial - In Gitmo if possible.

I would like to see him AND his cause humiliated.

This appears to be what he fears most. >

 

[Kat Stevens]

I can't understand why nobody has dropped the dime on him yet.  Let's see, HUGE reward for his head in a burlap bag.  Getting blowed up real good would net me 70 virgins of questionable quality, due to the whole burkha issue.  $25 MILLION dollars would get me as many professionals, and amateurs for that matter, as I could possibly handle in a thousand lifetimes, all certified grade A at least. Plus, that whole "my-guts-and-brains-sprayed-all-over-a-bus-stop"  thingy, while tempting, is not really up my street.

 

[Greymatters]

I can't understand why nobody has dropped the dime on him yet.  Let's see, HUGE reward for his head in a burlap bag.  Getting blowed up real good would net me 70 virgins of questionable quality, due to the whole burkha issue.  $25 MILLION dollars would get me as many professionals, and amateurs for that matter, as I could possibly handle in a thousand lifetimes, all certified grade A at least. Plus, that whole "my-guts-and-brains-sprayed-all-over-a-bus-stop"  thingy, while tempting, is not really up my street.

Tribal, community, ethnic, national and religious loyalty is a lot stronger in other countries worldwide than it is here.  Plus its hard to convince a simple villager that he should turn in a 'great leader' over to 'the great Satan' just for some money.  It may also be hard for them to conceive just how much $25 million dollars US really is, plus the fact that they would have to move away from their family/tribe/community if they expect to enjoy it.  Not to say they wouldnt do it, but it needs a bit more supportive reasoning to convince them to change their minds.   

 

[Greymatters]

You may be onto something their Flip. Maybe that's what they want us to believe, that they can't find him, while all the time they could have gotten him anytime they wanted. It seems with all the technology at their disposal, were one can sit back push a button and read a licence plate from 20,000 miles up in space, they couldn't find one sick Bin Laden. 

Use of space platforms is not like in the movies.  The systems were put up there to perform specific surveillance (and other) tasks and its hard to justify pulling them and re-orientating them just so they can find one guy, especially when the job can be done more efficiently and effectively by boots on the ground.  Plus the cost in manpower in having to have a team of imagery analysts constantly reviewing the imagery received, which means by the time they identify a clue to Osama's presence in an area, the guy is already out of area, so you cant act on the information (which requires sending in a ground team anyway). 

Reading a license plate is great, but it doesnt help if the cars in the area (if there are any) dont have licenses plates and if they do the plates are unlikely to have a vehicle registered in Osama's name (i.e. "There it is, custom licence number "I-P-L-A-N-D-9-1-1", find out what address the vehicle owner lives at.  You got it?  Cave #842, Bora Mountain Heights, Waziristan?  Excellent, we'll send a team right away..." - it just doesnt happen.). 

Granted there are more capable/specialized space-based systems out there we could discuss, but the same issues apply to those as well...

(Retiredgrunt45, not trying to poke fun at or insult you, just trying to give giving valid feedback with examples...)

 

[Greymatters]

The real question to consider is - If he is already dead, or does die, will they announce it and when?  Will they try and make a martyr out of him, or hide his demise so that the Great Satan remains in doubt as to Osama's current status and threat to the West?

There are a lot of theories on this.  Personally I think they would gain the most benefit to announce his death (once he dies), create a martyr for the cause, have a worldwide mourning, hold a big funeral, and emphasize that he died of natural causes and not because he was injured or killed by the West.  AQ has good access to news and propaganda machines over there so it wouldnt be hard for them to achieve this... 

 

[retiredgrunt45]

(Retiredgrunt45, not trying to poke fun at or insult you, just trying to give giving valid feedback with examples...)

Hey Grey Matter, Non taken.

You made some valid points.

Cheerio.