The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[OldSolduer]

I’m pretty much convinced that by the time GCAP is viable Canada will have decided that defense isn’t a priority and the ‘interim’ AC will rust out. Regardless what that platform is.

But but we're PEACEKEEPERS and we don't need no fancy jet fighters....

 

[JLB50]

I remain convinced/ hopeful that the Saab discussion has a lot more depth than people are giving it credit for. I think people are letting their contempt for Joly/the LPC/elbows up and the obviousness of the pure fighter/fighter vs fighter decision cause them to underestimate the combined acumen of Carney and Fuhr and overlook that their just might be a suitably ambitious big picture trade off worth considering, with fielding Gripen being a big part of the current "ante".

• Layer 1 - Assembling Gripen's with the hope to add our weight (Freeland as advisor?) to get Ukraine to more than double the output of the factory
• Layer 2- Bombardier gets the assembly and some material portion of the broader Global Eye supply chain comes to Canada. A Canada-Saab partnership works hard to finalize the Global Eye as the defacto AEW&C aircraft for NATO/Europe (20-40 airframes)
  • Layer 2A- Bombardier and Saab begin work on an MPA as the generational replacement for Poseidon
• Layer 3- we invest in and partner with them to collectively become a bigger player in the autonomous /CCA space
• Layer 4- we invest in and partner with them in 6th Gen*

*Us and the Swedes are considering a broader aerospace partnership. Both us and the Swedes are "considering" but uncommitted to GCAP. Germans/Airbus are reportedly considering leaving FCAS to work with the Swedes. It's not too much of a stretch to conclude that 1+1+1= 3 and there's another option than GCAP being considered.


So what I'm asking is- can we get layer 2,3 and 4 without layer 1 and paying the full Ante

On a side note, I just hope that any contract signed with Saab contains some kind of provisions to ensure that, should Quebec separate, all production facilities will remain in or relocate to Canada. The same should apply with companies establishing headquarters or major operations in Alberta as well. Knowing this in advance would let a lot of steam out of the separatists’ arguments.

 

[Kirkhill]

Its an interesting tack, the belief that the SAAB angle has more behind the scenes than what's being presented to us out in the open.

Somewhat along those lines, it was interesting to watch Ford pivot a hard 180 degrees only a few days after the announcement of 49,000 Chinese EV's being allowed to be sold in Canada after meeting with Carney/Jolly and publicly thanking them and praising them when he was brought into the fold on what the complete Auto Sector strategy is - which we, the general public, are still not aware of as its on going process and we can't afford to have the US know about at this stage.

In case you've not read up on his pivot.

After the meeting with Carney/Jolly:

Doug Ford calls federal auto strategy ‘great’ and says Ontario will be part of it after meeting with Carney and Joly

Ontario Premier Doug Ford appears to have had a change of heart when it comes to the federal government’s auto strategy after hearing more about it from federal officials.

www.ctvnews.ca

Ford after the Chinese EV announcement but before meeting with Carney/Jolly:

Ontario Premier Doug Ford Calls on Chinese EV Boycott

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has taken a strong stance against the deal recently struck between Ottawa and Beijing to allow back Chinese-made electric vehicles in Canada . He’s calling on Canadians to boycott them. Ford believes the deal will harm Ontario's auto sector. "Boycott the Chinese EV...

www.guideautoweb.com

Canadian V8s for Canada.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2026/01/gm-to-build-next-generation-v8-engine-in-canada/

Alberta pickup trucks with ICEs and the oil to fuel them over the long distances of the prairies.
Ontario producing pickup trucks with V8 ICEs
Ontario becomes an international centre of excellence for the ICE community

EVs work for the world's high density communities, the places.
But ICEs still are hard to beat in the spaces, the low density areas.

 

[Furniture]

"Cadillac 'elicopters" come to mind?

That's definitely a prime example.

As much as people on here want to dismiss public opinion and jobs claims, they matter. They likely matter more than actual capability, right up until the shooting starts in a peer conflict.

All major procurement projects are political to some degree. The National Shipbuilding Strategy is a perfect example of it. The use of the LAV platforms made in London is another great example.

The most recent examples of subs, and potentially fighters, fall perfectly within the same pattern.

 

[Quirky]

They likely matter more than actual capability, right up until the shooting starts in a peer conflict.

How do the fighter drivers feel flying those antiques in eastern europe when there's an actual threat? I wonder if their exodus has anything to do with being under equipped for a modern war, with no replacement coming.

 

[Furniture]

How do the fighter drivers feel flying those antiques in eastern europe when there's an actual threat? I wonder if their exodus has anything to do with being under equipped for a modern war, with no replacement coming.

Likely about the same as people rolling around Afghanistan in MLs and Bisons did...

Let's no pretend the fighter community is the only community that has to deal with potential risks from older platforms. Its a reality faced by every element of every military, even the Americans have old kit.

 

[Jarnhamar]

I'm a Canadian tax payer. F35 vs Gripen flight maintenance cost per hour is very important to me.

Also, I don't care about billions of missing taxdollars from covid, First Nations payouts, ridiculous government contracts with no oversight, green slush funds; that's all rounding errors and the cost of doing business.

 

[OldSolduer]

That's definitely a prime example.

As much as people on here want to dismiss public opinion and jobs claims, they matter. They likely matter more than actual capability, right up until the shooting starts in a peer conflict.

Then the public asks "why didn't they have (insert equipment here)?? "

Look in the mirror - you wanted free dental.

 

[Kirkhill]

Meanwhile, Lockheed feeling the heat at home

Lockheed announces $1bn investment to ‘double-down’ on improving F-35’s operational readiness

Lockheed Martin will spend more of its own money this year to improve the delivery of sustainment services and boost operational readiness rates on the F-35 fighter, chief executive James Taiclet says.

www.flightglobal.com

"Lockheed Martin will spend more of its own money this year to improve the delivery of sustainment services and boost operational readiness rates on the F-35 fighter, the US airframer’s chief executive says.

"“Over a fair few prior years there was – in our opinion – some under-funding of spare parts and repair capacity,” CEO James Taiclet says.

"“We have been striving to make up for some of that with internal investment,” he notes. “We have put a billion-plus [dollars] into spare parts and repairs already, but we are going to double-down on that, to make an extra effort to improve the mission-capable rate for the aircraft and make up for the unfortunate deficit that’s been created over the last four or five years.”"


....

6 days ago

Prioritizing the Warfighter in Defense Contracting

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Purpose.

www.whitehouse.gov

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5701388-defense-industry-flummoxed-by-trumps-executive-order-on-profits/

 

[ytz]

I remain convinced/ hopeful that the Saab discussion has a lot more depth than people are giving it credit for. I think people are letting their contempt for Joly/the LPC/elbows up

I don't think it does. And I say that as someone who is okay with this government (I like technocrats like Carney).

I don't think there's some great strategy or master plan here. The government is looking for any leverage it can with the US. And defence orders are huge. It's a critical sector for the US. And something our government can directly control. So if the US is going to bully industry into moving to the US, the government will seek more defence manufacturing employment here to compensate.

But the government has a few other problems here. First, they have no idea how the US will respond. Especially on the defence relationship (and we're starting to see issues). Next, it's hard to be sure the bet will pay off. Saab doesn't have a good track record creating jobs elsewhere. See Brazil.

For now though, costs the government nothing to keep threatening LockMart. And progress payments for 2029 deliveries are probably not due till early 2027. So they can wait out the Supreme Court decision on tariffs and maybe even the midterms before making a decision. Just keep saying it's under review and make LockMart dance.

Either way through the Americans are increasingly trash to work with these days. Operationalky things are fine. But any new project where any US Government Department needs to sign off or get a waiver gets slow walked or ghosted. Especially, at the senior levels with political appointees. If they insist on playing those games the spending will go elsewhere.

 

[ytz]

I’m pretty much convinced that by the time GCAP is viable Canada will have decided that defense isn’t a priority and the ‘interim’ AC will rust out. Regardless what that platform is.

It's kind of tiresome when people can't change their priors even at a time of record spending not seen in maybe two generations.

Also, GCAP is quickly becoming the non-US Allied default follow on to the F-35. You can bet there will be no American fighter that sells like the F-35 ever again, after this administration.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

But but we're PEACEKEEPERS and we don't need no fancy jet fighters....

There is only one type of peacekeeping I want to do

 

[ytz]

How do the fighter drivers feel flying those antiques in eastern europe when there's an actual threat? I wonder if their exodus has anything to do with being under equipped for a modern war, with no replacement coming.

Those "antiques" just got upgraded with a GaN AESA radar (variant of the Super Hornet radar), datalinks, and a whole slew of new weapons including the 9X Sidewinder, 120D AMRAAMs and JSOWs. A HEP II Hornet is on par and possibly better than the Gripens being discussed, in some ways.

 

[OldSolduer]

At my gig with the Aviation Museum I have made an acquaintance with an American A7 pilot who is about my age or a bit older. He thinks speed in a jet fighter is over rated and its the manouevrability that is the key to survival. He did fly F 18s at one time too.

 

[Kirkhill]

The thing about Ukraine is that it reminds us that when the fighting starts people die and equipment is destroyed regardless how good the equipment and tactics are. And the fighting and dying continues regardless of the quality of the kit.

Wars will be fought with old kit, obsolete junk and modifications of whatever is available. By the time Canada fields 88 F35s and GCAP is flying the world, and combat, will have changed requiring both to be modified to meet the reality of the day.