The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Czech_pivo]

I dont think so. We are a partner nation so not a FMS?
We are supposed to get 8 over 2026/2027
the other 8 in 2028?

According to the Lot 18 contract notice, the 145 jets include 48 F-35A aircraft for the Air Force, 16 F-35B aircraft and five F-35C aircraft for the Marine Corps, 14 F-35C aircraft for the Navy, 15 F-35A aircraft and one F-35B aircraft for F-35 non-U.S. DoD program partners, and 39 F-35A aircraft and seven F-35B aircraft for Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers.

The new contract modification awarded on Sept. 29, 2025, worth $12.5 billion, increased Lot 18 to 148 aircraft and added 148 F-35s as part of Lot 19. The latter include 40 F-35A aircraft for the Air Force, 12 F-35B and eight F-35C aircraft for the Marine Corps, nine F-35C aircraft for the Navy, 13 F-35A and two F-35B aircraft for F-35 cooperative program partners, and 52 F-35A and 12 F-35B aircraft for Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers.

If I read the above correctly - lot 18 contains 15 F35A for ‘non DoD program partners’ - and - lot 19 includes 13 F35A’s for ‘cooperative program partners.
If both of those phases mean the same thing, lots 18 & 19 include 28 F35A’s for partner nations.

Is Canada part of those 28? Is it all of those 28?

Lot 18 is expected to be produce by June 2027 and lot 19 by August 2028.

 

[suffolkowner]

According to the Lot 18 contract notice, the 145 jets include 48 F-35A aircraft for the Air Force, 16 F-35B aircraft and five F-35C aircraft for the Marine Corps, 14 F-35C aircraft for the Navy, 15 F-35A aircraft and one F-35B aircraft for F-35 non-U.S. DoD program partners, and 39 F-35A aircraft and seven F-35B aircraft for Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers.

The new contract modification awarded on Sept. 29, 2025, worth $12.5 billion, increased Lot 18 to 148 aircraft and added 148 F-35s as part of Lot 19. The latter include 40 F-35A aircraft for the Air Force, 12 F-35B and eight F-35C aircraft for the Marine Corps, nine F-35C aircraft for the Navy, 13 F-35A and two F-35B aircraft for F-35 cooperative program partners, and 52 F-35A and 12 F-35B aircraft for Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers.

If I read the above correctly - lot 18 contains 15 F35A for ‘non DoD program partners’ - and - lot 19 includes 13 F35A’s for ‘cooperative program partners.
If both of those phases mean the same thing, lots 18 & 19 include 28 F35A’s for partner nations.

Is Canada part of those 28? Is it all of those 28?

Lot 18 is expected to be produce by June 2027 and lot 19 by August 2028.

maybe we are getting some of lot 17?

I think the cooperative partners are Israel and Singapore

 

[Czech_pivo]

maybe we are getting some of lot 17?

I think the cooperative partners are Israel and Singapore

I found this as well -

Finland, for example, finalized a $9.4 billion deal in 2022 for 64 F-35As, with deliveries slated to begin in 2026—

Lot 20 is going to be geared heavily towards ‘foreign’ sales and should be around 182 planes in total.
If lot 19 is set to be completed by August 2028, then lot 20 being another 42 planes lager, might stretch out to be Dec 2029 or early 2030.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Ukraine Says Gripen Jets Are Among ‘Expected’ Western Aircraft Deliveries​

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, has said that Swedish-made JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets are among the Western aircraft “expected” to reinforce the country’s air force.

This is the first time a senior Ukrainian official has openly included the Gripen in Kyiv’s list of incoming aircraft. However, there has been no confirmation from Stockholm that the jets will be transferred. Earlier this month, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said Sweden was open to discussing Gripen sales only after the war ends, a position that appears to contradict Havryliuk’s remarks.

......the Swedish fighter has long been considered a perfect candidate for Ukraine, thanks to its ability to perform dispersed operations from roads and unprepared runways in isolated locations with minimal support. Despite its relatively small logistical footprint, Saab’s multirole jet is equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems, jam-resistant radars and NATO-compatible weapons (by the way, it would be interesting to know whether the supposed “package” includes additional air-to-air missiles, such as the Meteor Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile).

Ukraine Says Gripen Jets Are Among 'Expected' Western Aircraft Deliveries

While Ukraine has described Gripens as “expected,” Swedish officials have so far only stated that future sales could be discussed after the war, and no

theaviationist.com

 

[Good2Golf]

I don't believe for a minute that it costs only $7,000 per flight hour for a Gripen E, especially given Saab is notorious for not releasing much information and "flight hours" can be easily modified to make them as flattering as one wants.

Maybe $7,000/hr of JP-8 burned…

No way in H-E- that it an amortized capital cost/O&M institutional all-up costed flying rate.

 

[KevinB]

Frankly there is a snowballs chance in hell for Meteor and/or the AIM-260 JATM going to Ukraine at this junction.

Both of those are highly advanced systems that NATO has jack and shit interest in hostile nations learning more about.

 

[Maxman1]

Ukraine Says Gripen Jets Are Among ‘Expected’ Western Aircraft Deliveries​

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk, has said that Swedish-made JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets are among the Western aircraft “expected” to reinforce the country’s air force.

This is the first time a senior Ukrainian official has openly included the Gripen in Kyiv’s list of incoming aircraft. However, there has been no confirmation from Stockholm that the jets will be transferred. Earlier this month, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said Sweden was open to discussing Gripen sales only after the war ends, a position that appears to contradict Havryliuk’s remarks.

......the Swedish fighter has long been considered a perfect candidate for Ukraine, thanks to its ability to perform dispersed operations from roads and unprepared runways in isolated locations with minimal support. Despite its relatively small logistical footprint, Saab’s multirole jet is equipped with advanced electronic warfare systems, jam-resistant radars and NATO-compatible weapons (by the way, it would be interesting to know whether the supposed “package” includes additional air-to-air missiles, such as the Meteor Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile).

Ukraine Says Gripen Jets Are Among 'Expected' Western Aircraft Deliveries

While Ukraine has described Gripens as “expected,” Swedish officials have so far only stated that future sales could be discussed after the war, and no

theaviationist.com

Good for them?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Good for them?

I'd think so. Every fighter that they can get in the air is good for them.

 

[Good2Golf]

Doesn’t make it the best alternative for Canada. Rafale far better if we’re going to split-fleet things. Non-ITAR controlled (Gripen remains ITAR controlled), nuclear weapon capable, future compatibility with *USN CVNs if we go with Rafale M, follow-on fabrication in Canada, etc.

 

[dapaterson]

Twin Otter isn't ITAR

 

[Czech_pivo]

Doesn’t make it the best alternative for Canada. Rafale far better if we’re going to split-fleet things. Non-ITAR controlled (Gripen remains ITAR controlled), nuclear weapon capable, future compatibility with US. ACC s if we go with Rafale M, follow-on fabrication in Canada, etc.

I wonder if that was why France was listed, with the UK and Australia, in the new -

Canada announces Defence Investment Agency to manage purchase, delivery of military equipment​

Agency mandated to work more closely with allies including U.K., Australia and France​

I would have thought Germany would have been listed potentially because of the pending decision on subs and possibly replacing the tanks.

 

[QV]

Doesn’t make it the best alternative for Canada. Rafale far better if we’re going to split-fleet things. Non-ITAR controlled (Gripen remains ITAR controlled), nuclear weapon capable, future compatibility with *USN CVNs if we go with Rafale M, follow-on fabrication in Canada, etc.

What is the best combination and number if Canada were to go split fleet?

30 x F-35
58 x Rafale

1 x Sqn of F35 and 2 x Sqn Rafale at each fighter base, plus the spares?

I think Canada must have the F-35 in some number (I think 16 is too low) for the stealth and BVR dominance, but what else could Canada live with?

 

[Czech_pivo]

What is the best combination and number if Canada were to go split fleet?

30 x F-35
58 x Rafale

1 x Sqn of F35 and 2 x Sqn Rafale at each fighter base, plus the spares?

I think Canada must have the F-35 in some number (I think 16 is too low) for the stealth and BVR dominance, but what else could Canada live with?

The USAF has 24 planes in a F35A squadron I thought, do we follow suit or do we have less?

Why the fixation with 88 airframes? That number was pre-Trump and based on all F35's. In todays world that number is going to move up I'd be willing to bet, especially if we go with a mixed fleet.

 

[QV]

The USAF has 24 planes in a F35A squadron I thought, do we follow suit or do we have less?

Why the fixation with 88 airframes? That number was pre-Trump and based on all F35's. In todays world that number is going to move up I'd be willing to bet, especially if we go with a mixed fleet.

I thought a Sqn was 12, but I am likely wrong. I have no idea about the number 88, I suspect minimum number to meet essential requirements and cost was a major factor in coming to that number, but again I have no insight.

 

[KevinB]

I wonder if that was why France was listed, with the UK and Australia, in the new -

Canada announces Defence Investment Agency to manage purchase, delivery of military equipment​

Agency mandated to work more closely with allies including U.K., Australia and France​

I would have thought Germany would have been listed potentially because of the pending decision on subs and possibly replacing the tanks.

Makes you wonder if the decision fell to SK for Subs and Tanks…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Makes you wonder if the decision fell to SK for Subs and Tanks…

Your guess is as good as mine.

Sometimes these little things tell alot and sometimes they mean nothing at all.

I mean was the last time Canada bought anything of substance from France? So, with that being said, was France being listed as an example only because the person writing the copy is a Francophile? Or, is it because something is in the works with France?

Magic Eightball anyone?

 

[KevinB]

I thought a Sqn was 12, but I am likely wrong. I have no idea about the number 88, I suspect minimum number to meet essential requirements and cost was a major factor in coming to that number, but again I have no insight.

Squadrons are generally 12, but they have made ‘Super Squadrons’ of 18 and 24 at some locations.
No idea why the numbers fluctuate. Nor was it limited to F-35A airframes.

 

[Good2Golf]

What is the best combination and number if Canada were to go split fleet?

30 x F-35
58 x Rafale

1 x Sqn of F35 and 2 x Sqn Rafale at each fighter base, plus the spares?

I think Canada must have the F-35 in some number (I think 16 is too low) for the stealth and BVR dominance, but what else could Canada live with?

If I were King/PM/advisor for a day, in the current climate, here’s what I’d do:

- Assess a pure-NORAD min F-35 fleet. I agree with you, it is likely more than 16. I don’t know the particular task and force generation sortie rate to support that since I didn’t do any hard Cheyenne Mtn/Peterson AFB time, but my gut says it would be in the mid-30s to low-40s area as a min. Intent would be to address Continental defence/se requirements for: a) valid alliance reasons; and b) address the past ‘not doing our share’ rhetoric. I would commit Canada to purchase this many F-35s…and order them.

- for the Expeditionary role, non-NORAD role, I would think of a fleet of Rafale similar size to the Continental defence/se requirements. The Rafale is no slouch in its own right. More than likely far more operationally capable than some of the “5th Gen” fighters out there (Su-57 anyone).

 

[Quirky]

- for the Expeditionary role, non-NORAD role, I would think of a fleet of Rafale similar size to the Continental defence/se requirements. The Rafale is no slouch in its own right. More than likely far more operationally capable than some of the “5th Gen” fighters out there (Su-57 anyone).

Sounds like a permanent posting to Europe with a couple squadrons of RCAF Rafales in German bases.

 

[KevinB]

Interesting @Good2Golf
Personally the only split fleet I think makes sense is the F-35A and F-15 EX. Regardless of option, I don’t think a split fleet for the RCAF makes a great deal of sense without a requirement for a lot more airframes.