The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[ytz]

It has been stated that we're trying to extract the maximum possible concessions out of Lockheed Martin through this process, so I'd say it's partially that but also the Govt pushing this off due to the unavoidable optics of such a large purchase of a well known American system.

The 16 being bought covers is through 2028. We probably don't have to pay for deliveries in 2029 till 2027 anyway. So the government can keep being ambiguous till payments for long lead items are due in advance (usually 12-24 months ahead of delivery). And even then, they have 18 delivery slots per year for 2029-2032. They don't have to use them all. They can order less. They'll drag this out as long as they can.

 

[Kirkhill]

Is that actually on offer? Every article I've seen always talks about "making" Gripens in Canada. And my that they mean assembly. It's not even clear that Canadian content will be high. Saab is very quiet about that. They'll simply ship us kits to put together it seems.

I don't know. I'm looking for positives, for things that I think they might have to offer that I don't know if we have. Conjecture.

I am happy to see us buy 88 F35s.
I would be happier if we had a funded plan for the next step, whatever that might be. And a sense of urgency.

 

[ytz]

No, you're thinking of the F-117 Nighthawk, which was downed by fluke basically. The radar couldn't be turned on very long because SEAD detected it immediately, and by chance they turned it on at the same instant one had completed a bombing run and still had the bomb bay doors open, which ruined the stealth profile.

Partially correct.

They had poor opsec in Bosnia. They used a similiar ingress route into the theatre. When the Serbs figured it out they parked the radar and launcher there. Spotters called in approaching aircraft. I believe they even fired cold and flashed on the radar after to lock. Which is unfortunately when the victim aircraft opened its bay doors to release.

Stealth is not some magic that makes airplanes invisible. It simply reduces detection ranges and makes getting a lock a lot more difficult. So even if seen, getting a firing solution is difficult.

 

[ytz]

I don't know. I'm looking for positives, for things that I think they might have to offer that I don't know if we have. Conjecture.

I am happy to see us buy 88 F35s.
I would be happier if we had a funded plan for the next step, whatever that might be. And a sense of urgency.

I am not sure we will buy 88 jets. The current political situation makes that difficult for the government. I'm not even a Conservative government would stick to 88 unless there's a firm trade deal that doesn't screw us. Kinda hard to tell auto workers in Ontario that we'll keep buying jets from the US while their jobs move to Michigan.

I just wish it wasn't the Gripen. I would much rather accept the gap, live with 65 Panthers for a few years and start taking GCAP deliveries in 2040.

 

[Kirkhill]

I am not sure we will buy 88 jets. The current political situation makes that difficult for the government. I'm not even a Conservative government would stick to 88 unless there's a firm trade deal that doesn't screw us. Kinda hard to tell auto workers in Ontario that we'll keep buying jets from the US while their jobs move to Michigan.

I just wish it wasn't the Gripen. I would much rather accept the gap, live with 65 Panthers for a few years and start taking GCAP deliveries in 2040.

I'd be cool with that as well. Or Typhoons. Or trainers that could cover low end operations as well.

If the Russians and Ukrainians are finding uses for Yaks in counter-drone operations, and the Yanks are arming anything with wings with 70 mm guided missiles then even CF5s with CRV7s and APKWs kits would make an effective local defence against drones.