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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

OK so assume a war is coming what can we do about it because we really don't have a choice. (sigh)
What do you think we are doing?

Do think we are all fucking stupid?

I can assure you that everyone I know is working. Flat out.
 
Perhaps we can leverage our allies. How many pilots could we get into the US fighter training stream? I'm sure if we worked together collectively we could bump those numbers up in a big way.
 
Perhaps we can leverage our allies. How many pilots could we get into the US fighter training stream? I'm sure if we worked together collectively we could bump those numbers up in a big way.
Our allies have also streamlined and wrung efficiencies out of their training streams, leaving minimal spare or surge capacity.
 
Perhaps we can leverage our allies. How many pilots could we get into the US fighter training stream? I'm sure if we worked together collectively we could bump those numbers up in a big way.
Please read the article I posted written by Billie Flynn.

We already have pilots training in Italy, Finland and the US - at the cost of 2$m USD per year per pilot.
 
LOL - oh the irony of this.

Ukraine to buy ‘up to 100’ French fighter jets, Elysee Palace announces​



Ukraine will purchase “up to 100” French-made Rafale fighter jets as well as anti-air defenses and drones from France, the Elysee Palace confirmed, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Paris on Monday.

Questioned over the financing of the deal, Zelensky said Ukraine was examining the possible co-production of the French-made jets.

In what has been described as the largest aerial battle of the modern era, India lost one of its Rafale jets in combat with Pakistani forces in May, according to a French intelligence source. However, the French jets’ performance in the India Air Force has been widely praised by expert reviews in the Indian press.

The French aviation firm behind the Rafale, Dassault, is looking to boost its production output to four fighter jets per month and the company said it has 233 jets still on order, as of October 7

The agreement signed Monday is merely a letter of intent, still a way off a concrete purchase, spurring questions as to how Ukraine will pay for the French jets when Ukraine signed a letter of understanding for 100-150 Swedish-made Grippen jets in October.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested that Ukraine had three options – independently or in combination – to meet its financing needs. She said these were grants from EU allies, a loan funded by EU borrowing or loan linked to the cash balance of frozen Russian assets, according to Reuters.

The Elysee Palace also said that European financing could be used for the purchases as well as financing from frozen Russian assets.
 
LOL - oh the irony of this.

Ukraine to buy ‘up to 100’ French fighter jets, Elysee Palace announces​



Ukraine will purchase “up to 100” French-made Rafale fighter jets as well as anti-air defenses and drones from France, the Elysee Palace confirmed, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Paris on Monday.

Questioned over the financing of the deal, Zelensky said Ukraine was examining the possible co-production of the French-made jets.

In what has been described as the largest aerial battle of the modern era, India lost one of its Rafale jets in combat with Pakistani forces in May, according to a French intelligence source. However, the French jets’ performance in the India Air Force has been widely praised by expert reviews in the Indian press.

The French aviation firm behind the Rafale, Dassault, is looking to boost its production output to four fighter jets per month and the company said it has 233 jets still on order, as of October 7

The agreement signed Monday is merely a letter of intent, still a way off a concrete purchase, spurring questions as to how Ukraine will pay for the French jets when Ukraine signed a letter of understanding for 100-150 Swedish-made Grippen jets in October.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggested that Ukraine had three options – independently or in combination – to meet its financing needs. She said these were grants from EU allies, a loan funded by EU borrowing or loan linked to the cash balance of frozen Russian assets, according to Reuters.

The Elysee Palace also said that European financing could be used for the purchases as well as financing from frozen Russian assets.
It's almost like Ukraine is desperately throwing out LOI's and purchase attempts for whatever fighters they can without a lot of rhyme or reason? That's why I didn't put much stock in their Gripen LOI and said it was unrealistic, because fundamentally if they are doing this, we aren't special and I wouldn't be surprised if the LOI turns to dust.
 
It's almost like Ukraine is desperately throwing out LOI's and purchase attempts for whatever fighters they can without a lot of rhyme or reason? That's why I didn't put much stock in their Gripen LOI and said it was unrealistic, because fundamentally if they are doing this, we aren't special and I wouldn't be surprised if the LOI turns to dust.
It looks like they are hedging their bets and throwing cow output against the barn door and seeing what sticks.
 
It's almost like Ukraine is desperately throwing out LOI's and purchase attempts for whatever fighters they can without a lot of rhyme or reason? That's why I didn't put much stock in their Gripen LOI and said it was unrealistic, because fundamentally if they are doing this, we aren't special and I wouldn't be surprised if the LOI turns to dust.
Ukraine wants F-16’s and more out of America. The COA’s for other Airframes are I am sure designed to make us down here get more aggressive with costing and support.
 
So, putting it all together, with or without 5th or even 6th generation aircraft, there is still a need for a low cost, high-g jet to maintain a supply of proficient pilots that can move on to the newer platforms.

And that type of aircraft doesn't evolve as quickly as the bleeding edge. In fact it looks to me as if the "ontogeny recaps philogeny" rule of biology applies to the development of pilots.

Young pilots seem to progress through all previous generations of flying machines, starting with gliders and progressing through props, turboprops and 1960s jets before moving on to the the lstest thing.

There doesn't seem to be a lot to choose among Tutors, F5/CF5/T38s, Hawks/Goshawks and Red Hawks.

Arguably it seems that 5th Generation pilots will initially be 4th Generation pilots, and there seems to be few enough of them.

....

Do those older types of aircraft add to, or detract from, the combat power of the RCAF?

The understanding, I suspect, many of us have is that older generations of aircraft have no place in the modern battlespace, just like Light Anti Aircraft Artillery with its golden BBs, had no place in a 5th Generation world. But it seems that even older aircraft, like LAA, can be useful in the fight, especially when the latest generations aren't available due to politics or attrition.

Even the US, if not the USAF, finds utility in active zones for the equivalents of Mustangs (Tucanos) and Mosquitos (Beech Kings) with and without arms. And we seem to be discovering that as low, slow and cheap UAV targets proliferate there is a need for more platforms capable of shooting them down. And currently the minimum requirement seems to be an ability to lift guns in the 12.7 to 35 mm range and small calibre guided missiles in the 70 mm range.

Does that leave open the possibility of ensuring that every aircraft in the fleet, fixed and rotary, has the ability to carry weapons and that young pilots start their weapons training earlier?

Does it also suggest that there is merit in distributing armed jet trainers, and utility helicopters, around the country in a Reserve scheme as both a means of developing interest and skills as well as retaining them while also supplying a useful defense layer in the CUAS fight?

Put another way, forget the Arrow, do we still have the prints for the CF5?

We have resurrected the DeHavilland brand. Why not the Canadair brand?
 
It's almost like Ukraine is desperately throwing out LOI's and purchase attempts for whatever fighters they can without a lot of rhyme or reason? That's why I didn't put much stock in their Gripen LOI and said it was unrealistic, because fundamentally if they are doing this, we aren't special and I wouldn't be surprised if the LOI turns to dust.
Dassault is looking to 'ramp up' production to 4 Rafale's a month, or 48 a yr. LM is looking to sit at around 15 F35's a month or 170+ a year.
 
There's alot of thinking going on about the skill development thing in various quarters, not just for aircrew of course, but let's see if/how it pans out. E.g.



Powering a Postsecondary Pivot: Bold ideas to advance national ambitions in Defence and Space, AI and Energy​



Canada is about to make historic investments to reorient the economy. The scale and focus of these investments should serve as a wakeup call to anyone working in Canadian postsecondary education or relevant provincial ministries—signaling both opportunity and necessity for change.

The upcoming federal budget is expected to allocate billions for nation-building initiatives like modernizing defence and space infrastructure, expanding computing capacity, and developing renewable energy. The potential rewards–sovereignty, growth and competitiveness–are great. As is the risk. We are hedging our bets on talent and innovation.

But as we laid out in our recent report, Testing Times, the postsecondary sector is facing a crisis. Just as Canada is ramping up, colleges and universities are scaling down–closing programs, departments and campuses. Postsecondary institutions across the country need to modernize and re-align their mandates for growth–as outlined in A Smarter Path—but they lack the financial footing, flexibility and connectivity with industry to do so.

This was the context in which RBC Thought Leadership and our partners at the Business + Higher Education Roundtable convened a summit on Talent, Technology, and a New Economic Order. In September, about 60 industry and postsecondary leaders came together at RBC’s head offices with a shared interest: ensuring Canada’s historic investments yield historic rewards. We focused on three areas of national ambition that depend heavily on postsecondary for talent and innovation:

  • Defence and space capabilities
  • AI and digital technology
  • Major energy projects
The following summarizes the imperatives, opportunities and bold ideas that were discussed.

The educational facilities lack the will, desire and foresight to do so. Plus there is a political/ideologue barrier to preparing students for the military and military industrial base. Having foreign students sign up for the easiest classes and not show up at all, was the preferred way to milk the system. what you are suggesting is hard, cost money in labs, technology and supplies. Plus you can't brag at cocktail parties about how you are changing the world into a better socialist paradise.
 
Meanwhile, Carl Gustaf & Co. dropping by (to twist some arms, maybe?) this week ...
 
I am certain of that and I am not trying to be derogatory. But "can't" shouldn't be in our lexicon.

It's usually "won't" because we always can. Even when the current rules say we "can't", if we go high enough we can find a way. People just settle with can't because they won't. It's the easy button.
 
The problem isn't the CAF, it's the Fed Gov and by extension Canadians who "don't want".
Arguably part of the issue is the CAF who constantly break their backs, asses etc to deliver, even without from the GoC and Canadian public writ large.
The Can Do attitude, became a must do, and a lot of issues that should have broken the system where 'fixed' by the hard work (over work) and dedication of personnel at various levels. Which in turn has given a skewed idea of what is possible.

I don't have a clue as to what would need to be done to raise the training throughput of Fighter Pilots to the RCAF, but it definitely needs to be done - someway, somehow.
 
I don't know how many F18s we have operational but I will assume something about 100 aircraft total with a rediness rate in the 40 to 50% range. 48 aircraft sounds not unrealistic. So 48 pilots for 48 aircraft.

Shouldn't we have something more like 144 pilots on hand or on call for 48 aircraft?

3:1?
 
I don't know how many F18s we have operational but I will assume something about 100 aircraft total with a rediness rate in the 40 to 50% range. 48 aircraft sounds not unrealistic. So 48 pilots for 48 aircraft.

Shouldn't we have something more like 144 pilots on hand or on call for 48 aircraft?

3:1?
According to the information in the article that was written last year by Billie Flynn about the state of Fighter Pilot training in Canada, he stated the following:

"There are only 42 combat-ready fighter pilots in the RCAF, not enough to sufficiently man the CF-18s to protect our country or support operations abroad."
 
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