The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[NavyShooter]

I'm outside my lane with this, but....Canada needs 88 F-35s.

That's 88 5th Generation fighters with networked datalink, stealthy platform, low probability of intercept RADAR systems, and an integrated supply chain.

If we don't get 88 F-35's, how many of another type of fighter do we need? Still 88?

Or do we need more?

The survivability factor of an F-35 is much higher than that of a 4th gen aircraft, so, how many airplanes do we need?

There are simulated battle results from Red Flag that show the F-35 had a 20:1 kill ratio. What's the ratio for a Gripen? Is it 5:1?

Does that mean we need 5 times as many Gripens?

How much more will that many of them cost? Are we likely to get more of them?

I think we should stay the course and get our 88 F-35's, and go from there. The orange guy won't always be in charge, but having an interoperable fleet of aircraft that many of our allies fly and we can work seamlessly with is very important.

NS

 

[KevinB]

I imagine deterrence plays a large part. You're not deterring if you field inferior gear.

Convening Heavily though

 

[Czech_pivo]

Canada sold it's defence industries down the River years ago.
However you do now have a shipbuilding industry, small arms, and some minor munitions plants.

You don't need to do everything -- rather than trying to assemble imported Lego - focus on real growth points.

What if the decision is to make alot more than we currently do? Why can't this be an option? Why does every path forward seem to be someone patting us on the head and saying, 'there there little boy, be happy with what you have and don't try to rise above your station.' What if its time to say 'That's ok old man, you're looking a bit sickly and its time for me to start take more care of my own.'

I see the need and the logic to stay with our purchase of the F35 (all 88 would be ideal) for the time being but to listen to the amount of naysayers and doomsday prophets out here is completely and utterly demoralizing.

If I had listened to the vast majority of people around me in my early 20s in Windsor in the early/mid 90's questioning why I wanted to leave Windsor, to see the world and try my chances elsewhere at different things instead of 'allowing' my Dad to work behind the scenes and get me a job on the line at Plant 3 making Chrysler minivans as a path towards eventually getting me over to the management side in the finance/administration department, I would a stunted, uninformed, insular, myopic version of myself and I would despise who I had become.

 

[KevinB]

I'm outside my lane with this, but....Canada needs 88 F-35s.

That's 88 5th Generation fighters with networked datalink, stealthy platform, low probability of intercept RADAR systems, and an integrated supply chain.

If we don't get 88 F-35's, how many of another type of fighter do we need? Still 88?

Or do we need more?

The survivability factor of an F-35 is much higher than that of a 4th gen aircraft, so, how many airplanes do we need?

There are simulated battle results from Red Flag that show the F-35 had a 20:1 kill ratio. What's the ratio for a Gripen? Is it 5:1?

20:1 against F-16 and F-15's - both of which are more capable than the Gripen.

Does that mean we need 5 times as many Gripens?

Probably 40x if being honest in a sheer numbers game - and I admit that Reg Flag isn't the end all be all - as it doesn't take in other issues (GBAD etc), which would likely make the F-35 even more skewed on survivability.

How much more will that many of them cost? Are we likely to get more of them?

I think we should stay the course and get our 88 F-35's, and go from there. The orange guy won't always be in charge, but having an interoperable fleet of aircraft that many of our allies fly and we can work seamlessly with is very important.

NS

Agreed.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I imagine deterrence plays a large part. You're not deterring if you field inferior gear.

Yup agreed. Probably the reason why I have said and will continue to say, buy a min of 65 F35, preferable all 88 and at the same time keep open the door to other options.

 

[KevinB]

What if the decision is to make alot more than we currently do? Why can't this be an option? Why does every path forward seem to be someone patting us on the head and saying, 'there there little boy, be happy with what you have and don't try to rise above your station.' What if its time to say 'That's ok old man, you're looking a bit sickly and its time for me to start take more care of my own.'

That isn't what I am saying -- what I am saying is that Canada has a glaring number of deficiencies.
I would rather see Canada focus effort on domestic missiles and space based assets (Comms, ISR etc) than trying to create an industry that is already extremely competitive.
Canada has a financial (and production) part in F-35. I'd suggest if interested in a larger aerospace industry that 6th Gen Fighter jets are not the entry point. Sweden is just as lost there as Canada, and one can spout all sorts of gibberish about working towards something - but it means nothing.
America has been in the stealth game for decades, Russia and China have tried and failed rather spectacularly, China is still pushing, but beyond them anyone else's efforts are all still theoretical - and that goes for the European JV as well.

I see the need and the logic to stay with our purchase of the F35 (all 88 would be ideal) for the time being but to listen to the amount of naysayers and doomsday prophets out here is completely and utterly demoralizing.

If I had listened to the vast majority of people around me in my early 20s in Windsor in the early/mid 90's questioning why I wanted to leave Windsor, to see the world and try my chances elsewhere at different things instead of 'allowing' my Dad to work behind the scenes and get me a job on the line at Plant 3 making Chrysler minivans as a path towards eventually getting me over to the management side in the finance/administration department, I would a stunted, uninformed, insular, myopic version of myself and I would despise who I had become.

I encourage Canadians too look for what is needed, rather than attempting to be 8th best at something.
Especially when one can continue to partner (even if a minor partner) with a world leader -- want to advance and increase that, better have NRC and DRDC work with LocMart Canada for advanced F-35 components.

 

[AvroArrow92]

That isn't what I am saying -- what I am saying is that Canada has a glaring number of deficiencies.
I would rather see Canada focus effort on domestic missiles and space based assets (Comms, ISR etc) than trying to create an industry that is already extremely competitive.
Canada has a financial (and production) part in F-35. I'd suggest if interested in a larger aerospace industry that 6th Gen Fighter jets are not the entry point. Sweden is just as lost there as Canada, and one can spout all sorts of gibberish about working towards something - but it means nothing.
America has been in the stealth game for decades, Russia and China have tried and failed rather spectacularly, China is still pushing, but beyond them anyone else's efforts are all still theoretical - and that goes for the European JV as well.


I encourage Canadians too look for what is needed, rather than attempting to be 8th best at something.
Especially when one can continue to partner (even if a minor partner) with a world leader -- want to advance and increase that, better have NRC and DRDC work with LocMart Canada for advanced F-35 components.

I rather be poor and worse off then attach myself or my nation to the cesspool that is now the USA. My family has bleed for this land for better of two hundred years I’ll be damned if I see myself attached to the sinking ship that is the USA.

Ally no longer, friend no longer. Also if American expression as shown by their ambassador is to threaten and be little us if we do not toe the line, we are better off without them.

 

[ytz]

300 of any aircraft is not a small number

It's not a relevant number either. The E model should have been a new type a la Super Hornet. The use the C/D models to cover up how much the new E/F models cost. Cause paying the cost of an F-35 would really make the Gripen look ridiculous.

It's not clear at all that Saab will ultimately sell 300 Gripen E/Fs going forward. But realistic chance that LockMart will sell 2000 more F-35s. That's a real difference in forward market potential and splitting the cost/NRE on development going forward .

 

[QV]

20:1 against F-16 and F-15's - both of which are more capable than the Gripen.


Probably 40x if being honest in a sheer numbers game - and I admit that Reg Flag isn't the end all be all - as it doesn't take in other issues (GBAD etc), which would likely make the F-35 even more skewed on survivability.

Agreed.

The Gripen is considered a lightweight. If the F-15 is an F-150, the Gripen is a Ford Ranger. And the F-16 is a Ford Ranger Raptor.

 

[Kirkhill]

@Rainbow1910

Re the AEW platform

As I read the current situation the RCAF has committed to re-equipping 14 Wing with P8s and MQ-9Bs. We don't currently have a sovereign AEW capability and we have been looking at the E7 as a sister platform to the P8.

Our erstwhile mates to the south were going to go with the E7 and the USAF still wants it but the Pentagon has said no. The Pentagon wants the USAF to keep the E3s flying until the Space Force's satellites can take over the duty. The USAF doesn't seem to think they can keep the old 707s flying that long. They want the E7. Is it just a gap filler?

Concurrently, in concert with the development of their MDTFs and Long Range Precision Fires, the US Army has been looking for the means to see further and have been looking at their own fleet of fixed wing ISTAR, Battle Management aircraft. Effectively intruding into the USAF's patch.

Into this discussion enters GA-ASI offering a new MQ-9B variant equipped with the SAAB Erieye radar system offering persistent, low risk AEW coverage.

If 14 Wing were operating 737s as P8s and MQ-9Bs jointly as patrol platforms, with the MQ-9Bs being monitored and controlled from Ottawa, then couldn't the Erieye version of the MQ-9B be effectively added to the mix as an alternative to the E7?

Situation Awareness in the form of

Satellites,
Masset, Alert, Gander, Leitrim
OTH-R
MQ-9B Erieyes
MQ-9Bs
P8s
Whatever is afloat on or under the waves.

Is it absolutely critical that the battle management crew ride with the sensors?

 

[Kirkhill]

GA-ASI and Saab Will Test MQ-9B AEW&C Variant in the Summer of 2026

The demo will be conducted at GA-ASI’s Desert Horizon facility in California using a company-owned MQ-9B equipped with AEW&C systems supplied by Saab.

theaviationist.com

 

[Kirkhill]

Preserving America’s Air Battle Edge: Why Canceling The E-7 Would Be A Strategic Mistake

Canceling the E-7 now would be a costly and strategic blunder. Several key elements have not been considered in CAPE's alternative that the SECDEF needs to consider.

www.forbes.com

 

[KevinB]

@Rainbow1910

Re the AEW platform

As I read the current situation the RCAF has committed to re-equipping 14 Wing with P8s and MQ-9Bs. We don't currently have a sovereign AEW capability and we have been looking at the E7 as a sister platform to the P8.

Our erstwhile mates to the south were going to go with the E7 and the USAF still wants it but the Pentagon has said no. The Pentagon wants the USAF to keep the E3s flying until the Space Force's satellites can take over the duty. The USAF doesn't seem to think they can keep the old 707s flying that long. They want the E7. Is it just a gap filler?

E7 is coming as Congress wants it, and doesn't have the same faith in Space Based Assets and the E-2 that the USAF pitched.

Concurrently, in concert with the development of their MDTFs and Long Range Precision Fires, the US Army has been looking for the means to see further and have been looking at their own fleet of fixed wing ISTAR, Battle Management aircraft. Effectively intruding into the USAF's patch.

Into this discussion enters GA-ASI offering a new MQ-9B variant equipped with the SAAB Erieye radar system offering persistent, low risk AEW coverage.

If 14 Wing were operating 737s as P8s and MQ-9Bs jointly as patrol platforms, with the MQ-9Bs being monitored and controlled from Ottawa, then couldn't the Erieye version of the MQ-9B be effectively added to the mix as an alternative to the E7?

Situation Awareness in the form of

Satellites,
Masset, Alert, Gander, Leitrim
OTH-R
MQ-9B Erieyes
MQ-9Bs
P8s
Whatever is afloat on or under the waves.

Is it absolutely critical that the battle management crew ride with the sensors?

The E7 offers a massive potential beyond what can be done on a MQ-9.

 

[OldSolduer]

I wonder whose offshore bank accounts are being padded.

 

[Kirkhill]

E7 is coming as Congress wants it, and doesn't have the same faith in Space Based Assets and the E-2 that the USAF pitched.


The E7 offers a massive potential beyond what can be done on a MQ-9.

Are E7s joint crews or air force crews?

 

[Maxman1]

For comparison, Lockheed Martin builds more F-35s in a month than Saab has built Gripen Es in the past decade.

 

[KevinB]

Are E7s joint crews or air force crews?

No idea, the USAF doesn't fly them currently, and I have zero visibility on what other nations do for that.
USAF in the E-3's and USN in the E-2's so I would assume it would continue to be a USAF crew - other than potentially some Space Force personnel due to the overlap.

 

[Kirkhill]

No idea, the USAF doesn't fly them currently, and I have zero visibility on what other nations do for that.
USAF in the E-3's and USN in the E-2's so I would assume it would continue to be a USAF crew - other than potentially some Space Force personnel due to the overlap.

I was under the impression that both that both the E7 and the P8 were starting to overlap with E8 JSTARS operations.

 

[Prairie canuck]

In an interview with the CBC the Swedish defense minister stated that Canada purchasing Gripens is not a prerequisite to setting up an assembly line for the fighters in Canada with Canadian partners.
Pal Jonson interview

 

[HavokFour]

In an interview with the CBC the Swedish defense minister stated that Canada purchasing Gripens is not a prerequisite to setting up an assembly line for the fighters in Canada with Canadian partners.
Pal Jonson interview

If that's really the case, that is an absolute win-win. Jump on it and get those assembly lines fired up.