The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[HavokFour]

The fellow that we are not allowed to talk about on here or post links to his articles has come out with a story about Canada buying more than 88 fighters today. I haven't read more than the headline as it behind a paywall. But you asked if we heard anything different about 88 being the number to let you know.

Hopefully another agency covers the story so that it can be be posted and discussed on here.

Here is the primary source. This magazine did an interview with MGen Jeff Smyth, Chief of Air and Space Force Development. Published back on January 22, 2026.

Importantly, Smyth believes the government commitment to significantly increase defence spending could allow the RCAF to finally move beyond buying “minimum viable fleet sizes,” an issue that has left the Air Force challenged at times with aircraft availability.

EDIT: Added archive.

RCAF accelerates aircraft recapitalization to meet growing missile and arctic threats - Skies Mag

The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) is at the forefront of the most sweeping recapitalization of its aircraft fleets in decades. With an increase in government funding, the RCAF wants new capabilities and more than minimum viable fleet sizes.

skiesmag.com

Archive

 

[calculus]

The fellow that we are not allowed to talk about on here or post links to his articles has come out with a story about Canada buying more than 88 fighters today. I haven't read more than the headline as it behind a paywall. But you asked if we heard anything different about 88 being the number to let you know.

Hopefully another agency covers the story so that it can be be posted and discussed on here.

Yes, I saw that. The "rumour" is 120 - 40 F35s, and 80 Gripens.

John Ivison: Sources say Ottawa considering Swedish jets over F-35s for half of fleet

All the signs point to Ottawa buying fewer than half the number of F-35s it said it would and Carney's speech in Davos explains why.

nationalpost.com

 

[MilEME09]

Yes, I saw that. The "rumour" is 120 - 40 F35s, and 80 Gripens.

roughly two squadrons of gripens, and a squadron of F35, plus spares. So where we putting the third fighter squadron?

 

[suffolkowner]

Yes, I saw that. The "rumour" is 120 - 40 F35s, and 80 Gripens.

should be the other way around i think

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yes, I saw that. The "rumour" is 120 - 40 F35s, and 80 Gripens.

John Ivison: Sources say Ottawa considering Swedish jets over F-35s for half of fleet

All the signs point to Ottawa buying fewer than half the number of F-35s it said it would and Carney's speech in Davos explains why.

nationalpost.com

I had seen that article previously but its not the one that came out today.

 

[HavokFour]

I had seen that article previously but its not the one that came out today.

It's the one heavily referenced by the other publication, like 80%.

 

[Czech_pivo]

It's the one heavily referenced by the other publication, like 80%.

Do the numbers line up, if there are mentioned in today's?

 

[HavokFour]

Do the numbers line up, if there are mentioned in today's?

Only the Skies Mag article mentions any numbers.

 

[Maxman1]

And I haven't seen any actual evidence the government is seriously considering Gripens.

 

[OldSolduer]

And I haven't seen any actual evidence the government is seriously considering Gripens.

Is there any evidence the GoC is actually considering anything? Other than the initial 16 IIRC we have purchased?

 

[JLB50]

The fellow that we are not allowed to talk about on here or post links to his articles has come out with a story about Canada buying more than 88 fighters today. I haven't read more than the headline as it behind a paywall. But you asked if we heard anything different about 88 being the number to let you know.

Hopefully another agency covers the story so that it can be be posted and discussed on here.

I was able to get in. My take on it is that, with our expanded defence spending, Canada COULD POSSIBLY spend some of that money on more planes. It’s like I’m being told something I already know. No mention of anything being firmed up regarding the F-35 or Gripen.

 

[MilEME09]

Is there any evidence the GoC is actually considering anything? Other than the initial 16 IIRC we have purchased?

16 is only one squadron, we would need spares as well

 

[dapaterson]

Is there any evidence the GoC is actually considering anything? Other than the initial 16 IIRC we have purchased?

The RCAF has been advancing with a Next Generation Fighter Capability project for a considerable length of time. The initial order through the JSF program office for 16 aircraft is a first step, not a final one. The desired capabilities are largely classified, but the quantity of aircraft identified, 88, is a matter of public record.

 

[Rainbow1910]

Yes, I saw that. The "rumour" is 120 - 40 F35s, and 80 Gripens.

John Ivison: Sources say Ottawa considering Swedish jets over F-35s for half of fleet

All the signs point to Ottawa buying fewer than half the number of F-35s it said it would and Carney's speech in Davos explains why.

nationalpost.com

I think I mentioned before that it’s much worse than even a rumour, it’s totally unsubstantiated with no even sort of hint as to where it came from. A split like that would be utterly nonsensical as people have described previously.

I hope the RCAF does get greenlit for additional fighter purchases, with the stipulation that they are F-35’s and not Gripen lol.

 

[Rainbow1910]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2019120918325244314

Interim NDP leader Don Davies has come out and urged the Prime Minister to adopt the Gripen, that joke basically writes itself.

 

[Maxman1]

I think I mentioned before that it’s much worse than even a rumour, it’s totally unsubstantiated with no even sort of hint as to where it came from. A split like that would be utterly nonsensical as people have described previously.

I hope the RCAF does get greenlit for additional fighter purchases, with the stipulation that they are F-35’s and not Gripen lol.

Just like the one about the Gripen using the nonexistent EJ230.

 

[ytz]

Absolutely there are, but Rafale M is quantitatively more interoperable than Gripen E, would you agree?

The big issue would be the different datalinks. The fighter community did have somewhat of a vision to move to MADL. Beyond that, the big issue has always been that all of the IT systems and good chunk of mission systems and software have to be CANUS certified for NORAD. These costs were enough to get Rafale and Typhoon to drop out before. There's a suspicion here that Saab is just telling us what we want to hear to get a contract.

The fellow that we are not allowed to talk about on here or post links to his articles has come out with a story about Canada buying more than 88 fighters today. I haven't read more than the headline as it behind a paywall. But you asked if we heard anything different about 88 being the number to let you know.

Hopefully another agency covers the story so that it can be be posted and discussed on here.

Yes, I saw that. The "rumour" is 120 - 40 F35s, and 80 Gripens.

John Ivison: Sources say Ottawa considering Swedish jets over F-35s for half of fleet

All the signs point to Ottawa buying fewer than half the number of F-35s it said it would and Carney's speech in Davos explains why.

nationalpost.com

Those numbers don't work. Two points.

1) Any dual fleet will definitely have to be larger. In part because of the transition.

2) We don't have the capacity to operate three fighter fleets simultaneously. The F-35 transition is already a huge lift for the RCAF at every level. From tech staff in Ottawa, to the training system to the infrastructure folks to security certification. Forcing the operation of three fighter fleets simultaneously and a double transition would break the RCAF. This means the transitions need to be sequenced and that means there need to be enough F-35s to retire the Hornet. That means 50-60 F-35s at least. Probably closer to the higher end.

And heck, even if this Gripen plan was announced today, zero chance they get a facility built and certified and delivering jets before 2031. By which point we'll have over 50 F-35s in service. To explain how hard this is. There's currently an effort to come up with a process to certify industrial facilities to Level III in Canada. That's right. We don't even have a way to certify a manufacturer to TS. A lot of Canadian OEMs don't even have certified SDAs. Let alone SCIFs. But now they're going to build 4.5 Gen combat jets?

The problem now is that having hyped up the Gripen to get concessions out of LockMart, there are so many America haters riled up who think the F-35 fleet should be 16. And Saab is saying 72 frames for a FAL. The government knows they need 50-60 F-35s. And they know that Gripen order if it happens won't be 70 frames. How do they break that news to their base?

 

[ytz]

Also I've seen some idea that the government and RCAF aren't talking. Nah. FFCP is led by a two leaf for a reason. They are talking to the CRCAF regularly who is talking to the CDS and the Minister and Associate Minister regularly. You can bet they are getting a ton of regular updates in both directions.