The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[IKnowNothing]

Do people believe that Europeans have no concern about IP control and jobs that they'll just sign up to build a major research centre for next gen platforms in Canada?

Or are y'all just delusional enough to think a 70 frame jet order is so big that a whole bunch of governments and major national aerospace champions will ignore their own interests?

Holy enormous strawmen batman.

The concept being discussed is that two governments and major aerospace champions will share some IP control and jobs because it's in their best interest, with a 70 frame jet order being our table stakes- not the end of our investment

The whole discussion is predicated on Airbus leaving FCAS because of Dassault/French monopolizing it, and pairing with Saab. They apparently think it's at least worth discussing.

Let's assume two things- A. The Swedes and Germans pair up, and B. Canada is willing to bet on that pairing.

Why would they let us play?

In that scenario the US is doing it's thing. FCAS still has the French and Spanish. GCAP has the UK and Italy. Canada isn't defined by being a 70 airframe Gen 4.5 order. Canada is defined by:

• being the only unaligned (Gen 6 figher) G7 nation left
• being the single largest NATO country by GDP left (by a large margin)
• being a historically respected middle power seemingly getting serious about our place in the world
• having an aerospace industry that was a tier 3 partner on F35 and just put in the investment into gen 4.5 production and supply chain.

Assuming zero outside of partnership sales the direct impact of Canada being a proportional (~200 Germany/100 Canada/75 Sweden ) orderer of the partnership's aircraft is to reduce the equal weighted R&D/ overhead cost per air frame by ~25% - (in their interest)

Assuming R&D spend is proportional to the above airframes - the inclusion of Canada reduces Germany's spend from 73% to 53% of the project, Sweden's from 27 to 20 - in their interest

Canada represents 27% of the hypothetical known orders (a 36% increase compared to a partnership without Canada), but we admittedly bring less to the table in terms of expertise- lets assume we show some Canadian humility on that front and take an underweight work share of 20%- the other partners net out ahead - (in their interest)

Now lets expand the discussion and assume this partnership delivers an aircraft that can at least compete technically with FCAS and GCAP. Which stands a better chance of winning Dutch/Danish/Norwegian/Finnish/Baltic orders, the partnership with Canada and it's 100 airframes or the one without? (in their interest)

Is that collection of benefits enough to be worth sharing IP and jobs? Maybe, maybe not. But let's not pretend that they don't exist.


I bow to your technical expertise on just how risky the endeavour would be, and how far behind it's coming from. But you've missed the mark on the success based business case for our inclusion, and implying that our role would be based on delusions of being a charity case is objectively unfair.

 

[Furniture]

There's a line between hopeless and rational.

Name one country thats abandoned its F35 order in the last year. Denmark actually ordered more.

Spain dropped the F-35 from competition in favour of European aircraft. Switzerland is in the middle of a fight over the F-35s they ordered, and it seems unlikely that they will want to buy from LM again.

 

[Remius]

Spain dropped the F-35 from competition in favour of European aircraft. Switzerland is in the middle of a fight over the F-35s they ordered, and it seems unlikely that they will want to buy from LM again.

Portugal.

 

[Quirky]

Spain dropped the F-35 from competition in favour of European aircraft. Switzerland is in the middle of a fight over the F-35s they ordered, and it seems unlikely that they will want to buy from LM again.

Spain never had the F-35 on order, good luck with the Eurofighter. Switzerland looks to be a money thing, I'm surprised they went the F-35 route to begin with.

Portugal.

I thought the order was back on?

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/portugal-joints-reurope-favour-f35

 

[YZT580]

Holy enormous strawmen batman.

The concept being discussed is that two governments and major aerospace champions will share some IP control and jobs because it's in their best interest, with a 70 frame jet order being our table stakes- not the end of our investment

The whole discussion is predicated on Airbus leaving FCAS because of Dassault/French monopolizing it, and pairing with Saab. They apparently think it's at least worth discussing.

Let's assume two things- A. The Swedes and Germans pair up, and B. Canada is willing to bet on that pairing.

Why would they let us play?

Could there be a cost advantage as well for them to go for a threesome? Canada could bring an abundance of resources to the table including much of the source materiel, airspace to work in, and much much cheaper power. As well, dividing the construction/development across two continents makes it a much harder target to eliminate.

 

[Rainbow1910]

Spain never had the F-35 on order, good luck with the Eurofighter. Switzerland looks to be a money thing, I'm surprised they went the F-35 route to begin with.

Spain is stuck between a rock and a hard place, where they need the F-35B to replace their aging Harrier fleets aboard their amphibious vessels, but they don’t want to buy an American aircraft. They could retrofit drones to them but it’s nowhere near the same capability.

Portugal.

Portugal has flip flopped on the F-35 being considered for them or not, mostly down to political pressure given the behaviour of the US lately. They don’t take their defence especially seriously like Spain, so they aren’t the ideal benchmark to look at.

 

[Quirky]

When serious countries start cancelling or dropping the F-35 I'd be worried.