The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Colin Parkinson]

They also didnt operate Army and Naval rotary wing - so cut a few thousand off the total we have now.

The RCAF was also responsible for the Pinetree line, peaking at above 26 stations and 7 closing in the 1970's and 22 more closing late 1980's early 90's Pinetree Line - Wikipedia

I did stay once at the station near Kamloops, pretty laid back place for a military installation.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Yup, could very well be.

And if we did end up with 88 F35's, guess what? We are going to have to increase the number of RCAF personnel because we are not flying 88 or 78 or most likely even 68 CF-188's right and as a result, we are going to have to recruit/train more personnel for 88 F35's if we end up with that number.

Considering the F35 has a 50-60% availability rate, it isn’t likely we will have 88 ever able to fly at any given time unless we buy 160 of them.

Well... a fighter fleet is the core of any air force. Without it, none of the other air force capabilities or domains really would matter much in a peer conflict.

Depends, I would argue air defence seems to be more important than the fighters themselves these days. The fighters are more for projecting power than defending the other platforms. If you have solid air defence you don’t need a fighter and can protect the other aircraft just as well if not better.

The F35 program could cost close to 80 billion, that is a lot of air defence batteries for that money.

 

[Maxman1]

Considering the F35 has a 50-60% availability rate, it isn’t likely we will have 88 ever able to fly at any given time unless we buy 160 of them.

That's a totally normal availability rate for a fighter jet, and the Gripen will be no different.

 

[Nvlgzr]

Considering the F35 has a 50-60% availability rate, it isn’t likely we will have 88 ever able to fly at any given time unless we buy 160 of them.

USAF F-35A Availability continues to plummet, 2025 hit a new low of 28.5%. The target is supposed to be 65-80%. It’s comparable to buying an Italian supercar; great performance if you can get it out of the mechanic’s garage.

 

[Nvlgzr]

Past Gripen availability is 80 - 90%, which should be a reasonable indicator of expected availability of E model. As for F-35, note my reply to Eaglelord (nice handle).

 

[Eaglelord17]

That's a totally normal availability rate for a fighter jet, and the Gripen will be no different.

Not necessarily. Some models are more available than others (F15 is around 72% as a example). Keep in mind it is 50% on a brand new airframe, how much worse will that get as they age?

 

[Maxman1]

Past Gripen availability

Is irrelevant. The Gripen E is functionally a different plane than the Gripen C/D. Think Hornet vs Super Hornet.

expected availability

Is just more Saab marketing. Same with the per hour operating costs that seem to drop $1,000 every time it gets repeated.

"Expected" data is all but useless.

Remember, we're not the only country to evaluate the Gripen against the F-35. Every country that did, like Finland, Switzerland and Czech Republic, picked the F-35. And Czech Republic currently operates the Gripen C/D.

 

[markppcli]

USAF F-35A Availability continues to plummet, 2025 hit a new low of 28.5%. The target is supposed to be 65-80%. It’s comparable to buying an Italian supercar; great performance if you can get it out of the mechanic’s garage.

Thats US total F35 availability, F35A - what were buying, is better.

 

[dapaterson]

Thats US total F35 availability, F35A - what were buying, is better.

As long as your spares don't end up in China.

 

[markppcli]

As long as your spares don't end up in China.

Forward staging

 

[Nvlgzr]

Thats US total F35 availability, F35A - what were buying, is better.

We have bought a hanger queen that will bleed the RCAF dry.
From GAO report:
Figure 5: F-35 Full Mission Capable Rates by Service/Variant, Fiscal Years 2020-2025

Note: The full mission capable rate assesses only aircraft that are in the possession of F-35 units. It measures the percentage of time

 

[markppcli]

We have bought a hanger queen that will bleed the RCAF dry.

Thats a poor take made from people who've read too many low effort internet takes.

From GAO report:
Figure 5: F-35 Full Mission Capable Rates by Service/Variant, Fiscal Years 2020-2025

Note: The full mission capable rate assesses only aircraft that are in the possession of F-35 units. It measures the percentage of time

What do you think Full Mission Capability means?

 

[OldSolduer]

Thats US total F35 availability, F35A - what were buying, is better.

If I may let’s compare it to a brand new off the drawing board car.
The first year the car is mass produced there will be issues - like maybe the brakes don’t live up to expectations or a high rate of engine problems.
Over the years these issues are (or should be) addressed so the later models are good to go.

 

[Nvlgzr]

Thats a poor take made from people who've read too many low effort internet takes.



What do you think Full Mission Capability means?

The government report is based upon data collected by bean counters. Full mission means that the aircraft is readied to the point that it can perform any mission that it was purchased to perform. For instance, if the mission today is to attack a ground target but the ground tracking mode of the radar is offline then park it.

 

[Nvlgzr]

If I may let’s compare it to a brand new off the drawing board car.
The first year the car is mass produced there will be issues - like maybe the brakes don’t live up to expectations or a high rate of engine problems.
Over the years these issues are (or should be) addressed so the later models are good to go.

Agreed the average should improve over time as the bugs get worked out. But the F35 average is not improving, “A” version is worsening. According to GAO; Parts ordering and availability are the key drivers of the poor aircraft availability. The industrial base isn’t keeping pace.

 

[ytz]

Don’t get angry with me.
I’m questioning the math and the belief that the RCAF would need to double in size to accommodate a mixed fighter fleet of 120-130 aircraft.
I’m well aware of the ‘net new’ capabilities that the RCAF has today vs 1985. And it’s going to expand again with the 6 (+?) new Globaleye that will come eventually.

You're somebody who has never served. Let alone in the RCAF and you said the air force comes across as most whiny. And you expect people not to take offence at a comment based entirely on ignorance?

You have the exact same blinders as most civvies despite your time here. And hell half of the CA and RCN have it too. Think the RCAF is only about flying fighters. And of course, since the knowledge base is superficial, then assume all fighters are basically the same or only superficially different.

 

[Czech_pivo]

You're somebody who has never served. Let alone in the RCAF and you said the air force comes across as most whiny. And you expect people not to take offence at a comment based entirely on ignorance?

You have the exact same blinders as most civvies despite your time here. And hell half of the CA and RCN have it too. Think the RCAF is only about flying fighters.

Yes I’ve never served, 100% correct. Does that mean that I’m not able to have an opinion on this?
Sorry but I do and I will continue to express it.

Reflecting on my use of the word ‘whiny’, I can now see that this word might have been a bit strong- apologies for using it.
Maybe I should have said something like, ‘currently there seems to be an undercurrent within the RCAF that is not aligned with the current thinking/direction of this government,’ fair statement given the amount of ‘anonymous’ tips coming from the RCAF expressing their views on what possible new equipment might be purchased for their use?

I fully am aware that the RCAF has recently expanded its fleet of airframes that it flys. This will expand further with the new Italian trainers and the Swedish Globaleye.

The spotlight has been focused on the F35 for a better part of a decade now with still no end in sight. It would be nice if it could be settled once and for all before the leaves drop but it doesn’t look as though that will happen.
The RCAF fighters are not unlike the CA’s Leopards, both represent the pointy end of the stick, the part that potentially does the most damage and goes in first. It should be no surprise that it receives the most attention.

Lastly, with respect and gratitude, thank you and all on here, for your service, your dedication and your sacrifice. For me it does not go unnoticed. Peace.