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The War in Ukraine

Kirkhill said:
Personally I think the notion of Taiwan as a distraction while leaking into Siberia is a more likely course of action.
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Russia would most likely resort to nuclear weapons in that case.
They are aware of China's Little Green Men in the East - but China is opting for squatting at this point, not acting like the Russian method, and Xi's cash has kept the Putin kleptocracy afloat for the last 3 years - so Russia ignores it. But armed incursion with insurrection would be a red line that Putin most likely would use Nuclear Weapons for (as he can't use his army).

I think Taiwan originally was planned as a way to 'blood' the Chinese Army before ay conflict with Russia - but Ukraine has shown how costly an opposed invasion can be, and Xi doesn't want his legacy to be known as the Folly of the Chinese Putin...
 
Kirkhill said:
Personally I think the notion of Taiwan as a distraction while leaking into Siberia is a more likely course of action.
Click to expand...
I'm not so sure. I see parallels between the fanaticism behind Russia's determination to absorb Ukraine and China's desire to re-unite with Taiwan (and maybe a little bit in Trump's Manifest Destiny obsession with Canada?)
 
KevinB said:
Russia would most likely resort to nuclear weapons in that case.
They are aware of China's Little Green Men in the East - but China is opting for squatting at this point, not acting like the Russian method, and Xi's cash has kept the Putin kleptocracy afloat for the last 3 years - so Russia ignores it. But armed incursion with insurrection would be a red line that Putin most likely would use Nuclear Weapons for (as he can't use his army).

I think Taiwan originally was planned as a way to 'blood' the Chinese Army before ay conflict with Russia - but Ukraine has shown how costly an opposed invasion can be, and Xi doesn't want his legacy to be known as the Folly of the Chinese Putin...
Click to expand...

I agree. On both your Canadian and Russian observations. I think China prefers the threat of war to war itself. Secret police stations are much more to its taste. That and time.
 
GR66 said:
I'm not so sure. I see parallels between the fanaticism behind Russia's determination to absorb Ukraine and China's desire to re-unite with Taiwan (and maybe a little bit in Trump's Manifest Destiny obsession with Canada?)
Click to expand...

In all three cases I think the Ukrainians have taught a lesson. The economic juice is not worth the squeeze. Far better to have a distant goal in the never-never than to waste resources and risk societal abruption in the here and now.

The Russians and the Ukrainians lost a lot of youngsters over their borders. Do you reckon the Chinese would be able to secure the Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kong while fighting Taiwan? And as for the US invading Canada... The Democrats were the Anti-Vietnam party. Do you reckon they would follow Donald all the way to Moosomin?
 
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Kirkhill said:
In all three cases I think the Ukrainians have taught a lesson. The economic juice is not worth the squeeze. Far better to have a distant goal in the never-never than to waste resources and risk societal abruption in the here and now.

The Russians and the Ukrainians lost a lot of youngsters over their borders. Do you reckon the Chinese would be able to secure the Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kong while fighting Taiwan? And as for the US invading Canada... The Democrats were the Anti-Vietnam party. Do you reckon they would follow Donald all the way to Moosomin?
Click to expand...
The Ukrainians have taught Russia a lesson, but they haven't given up. They, like China face a demographic clock that is ticking away on both their leaders and their population. They realize that if they want their moment of glory it's got to be soon before they fade away into history. That can make for some very illogical decision making.

Edit to add: It's been mentioned several times in the past few years that when a dictator says he's going to do something you should listen to him. Xi has said his military should be ready to re-take Taiwan by force by 2027. Are we listening?
 
GR66 said:
The Ukrainians have taught Russia a lesson, but they haven't given up. They, like China face a demographic clock that is ticking away on both their leaders and their population. They realize that if they want their moment of glory it's got to be soon before they fade away into history. That can make for some very illogical decision making.

Edit to add: It's been mentioned several times in the past few years that when a dictator says he's going to do something you should listen to him. Xi has said his military should be ready to re-take Taiwan by force by 2027. Are we listening?
Click to expand...

I'll put it this way. Expressed intent should now be taken as a serious planning factor. Even if there is strong evidence to believe it is just a bluff.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best.
 
KevinB said:
Russia would most likely resort to nuclear weapons in that case.
They are aware of China's Little Green Men in the East - but China is opting for squatting at this point, not acting like the Russian method, and Xi's cash has kept the Putin kleptocracy afloat for the last 3 years - so Russia ignores it. But armed incursion with insurrection would be a red line that Putin most likely would use Nuclear Weapons for (as he can't use his army).

I think Taiwan originally was planned as a way to 'blood' the Chinese Army before ay conflict with Russia - but Ukraine has shown how costly an opposed invasion can be, and Xi doesn't want his legacy to be known as the Folly of the Chinese Putin...
Click to expand...
Setting aside Russia's possible response, not sure why China would need to distract those countries who would care about Taiwan from a move in Siberia.

Chinese administration would likely be an improvement, especially in urban areas and townships.
 
Kirkhill said:
The Democrats were the Anti-Vietnam party. Do you reckon they would follow Donald all the way to Moosomin?
Click to expand...
They have not been able to effectively limit his whims so far. What is magic about Moosomin?
 
GR66 said:
The Ukrainians have taught Russia a lesson, but they haven't given up. They, like China face a demographic clock that is ticking away on both their leaders and their population. They realize that if they want their moment of glory it's got to be soon before they fade away into history. That can make for some very illogical decision making.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but I think Russia and China are significantly different.
Putin has doubled down again and again in Ukraine, his life is now tied to it, as he is unlikely to survive a loss.
Xi hasn't committed any kinetic actions that are linked to China at this point -- sure they are belligerent, but staying in the gray zone of hostile actions.
GR66 said:
Edit to add: It's been mentioned several times in the past few years that when a dictator says he's going to do something you should listen to him. Xi has said his military should be ready to re-take Taiwan by force by 2027. Are we listening?
Click to expand...
Everyone should be listening, and more than listening they should be preparing. Additionally there should be actions taken towards China that give Xi a viable off ramp to military collision. The Chinese population declining is a temporary thing, based on the now removed one child policy - a costly conflict could make that irreversible. Find a way to raise the Chinese standard of living - something the West failed to do with Russia.
History has shown time and time again, that a population that doesn't see a way out will cling to anything or anyone who will promise them a better life - even if it is terribly unrealistic.
 
MilEME09 said:
www.ft.com

Vladimir Putin sets tough conditions for Ukraine ceasefire

Russian president indicates Moscow is unwilling to drop maximalist demands
www.ft.com www.ft.com
Click to expand...
Shocked Futurama GIF by MOODMAN
 
KevinB said:
Agreed, but I think Russia and China are significantly different.
Putin has doubled down again and again in Ukraine, his life is now tied to it, as he is unlikely to survive a loss.
Xi hasn't committed any kinetic actions that are linked to China at this point -- sure they are belligerent, but staying in the gray zone of hostile actions.

Everyone should be listening, and more than listening they should be preparing. Additionally there should be actions taken towards China that give Xi a viable off ramp to military collision. The Chinese population declining is a temporary thing, based on the now removed one child policy - a costly conflict could make that irreversible. Find a way to raise the Chinese standard of living - something the West failed to do with Russia.
History has shown time and time again, that a population that doesn't see a way out will cling to anything or anyone who will promise them a better life - even if it is terribly unrealistic.
Click to expand...
Problem in China is that the reversal did not lead into a major up spurt in babies. People feel they can't afford having 2 or more children. The relaxation of birth restrictions, caused a bump in birth rates, but there is still a steady decline.

https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article/39/4/363/7604365

 
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