The War in Ukraine

[QV]

I can't see Crimea being on the table after a decade. I think that land is going to remain under Russian control. Best case is back to 2022 lines.

 

[suffolkowner]

With Trump one never really knows.

He is visibly upset with Putin as this point due to his rejection of the 30 day ceasefire, and has said he’s going to be putting more pressure on him.

POTUS seems to be willing to sell Crimea out to Russia, but I view that as a better change from being willing to sell all of the occupied territories earlier. (Still unacceptable)

The energy sanctions are taking a heavy bite from Russia this month, something President Biden hadn’t been willing to do, so Russias position is significantly weaker now.

President Trumps has to know that the Ukrainians won’t accept the loss of Crimea and the majority of European Governments will support Ukraine in this, as well they can’t allow the Russians to have a precedent for absorption by force.

Putin should take the win if Trump is offering to freeze the LOC

 

[KevinB]

Putin should take the win if Trump is offering to freeze the LOC

Trump can’t really offer that. I think he’s slowly coming to that understanding.


We (the US) have a heavy stake in Ukraine, our Defense Industry has taken a beating from his actions, and the economy can’t take the pressure from significant downturns in that sector. The Russian invasion has shown the vast supremacy of US weapons technology above Russia and Europe, and his actions have hurt sales to allies.

Also the mineral rights that POTUS is after from Ukraine are mostly in occupied territories, so it makes zero sense to accept any Russian claims.

 

[KevinB]

I can't see Crimea being on the table after a decade. I think that land is going to remain under Russian control. Best case is back to 2022 lines.

So if the USA seizes Alberta and holds it for 10 years, it’s ours? Sounds like a fantastic plan for us.

 

[QV]

So if the USA seizes Alberta and holds it for 10 years, it’s ours? Sounds like a fantastic plan for us.

Am I supposed to be upset by that?

 

[MilEME09]

I can't see Crimea being on the table after a decade. I think that land is going to remain under Russian control. Best case is back to 2022 lines.

Might as well recognize Tibet while we are at it then

 

[QV]

Do you suppose Putin is just going to pack everything up and go back to pre-2014 lines on words and promises?

 

[MrWhyt]

Do you suppose Putin is just going to pack everything up and go back to pre-2014 lines on words and promises?

of course not, especially when you have trump approving the russian theft of ukrainian territory

 

[KevinB]

Am I supposed to be upset by that?

Well I would assume that any citizen would be upset at a foreign country invading their territory and attempting to annex a portion of it…

 

[PrairieFella]

Am I supposed to be upset by that?

You should be.

 

[PrairieFella]

Well I would assume that any citizen would be upset at a foreign country invading their territory and attempting to annex a portion of it…

It makes me sad that you as a former Canadian seem more patriotic (or at least rational) than a lot of the Trump lovers here. It's such an odd obsession.

 

[Lumber]

Well I would assume that any citizen would be upset at a foreign country invading their territory and attempting to annex a portion of it…

Not to turncoats.

 

[QV]

The US is not going to invade Canada. Period. You all can stop hyperventilating. Let's not derail this thread on that ridiculous tangent.

Back to topic:

If Putin isn't likely to retreat back to pre-2014 lines, and the war is to stop now lest Ukraine lose more ground and lives, what does the peace deal look like then?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

The US is not going to invade Canada. Period. You all can stop hyperventilating. Let's not derail this thread on that ridiculous tangent.

Back to topic:

If Putin isn't likely to retreat back to pre-2014 lines, and the war is to stop now lest Ukraine lose more ground and lives, what does the peace deal look like then?

Like Paris 1919. Marshal Ferdinand Foch : "This is not a peace. It is an armistice for 20 years.”

Except in this case it will be less then 20 years.

 

[Genetk44]

So if the USA seizes Alberta and holds it for 10 years, it’s ours? Sounds like a fantastic plan for us.

I think that is the general scenario Trump wants and why he will give it to Putin, so he has a pretext and precedent for down the road

 

[Kirkhill]

So if the USA seizes Alberta and holds it for 10 years, it’s ours? Sounds like a fantastic plan for us.

For pete's sake don't tell that to Doug Ford. He'd be happy if you took Danielle with you.

 

[KevinB]

If Putin isn't likely to retreat back to pre-2014 lines, and the war is to stop now lest Ukraine lose more ground and lives, what does the peace deal look like then?

The only solution is to give Ukraine the equipment and support it needs to make Russia go back to the 1991 border.

Anything else simply rewards Putin for a war of aggression to annex territory and sets the stage for it to occur again, and to other countries.

More F-16’s, more HIMARS/MLRS, a few hundred M1A2 and more AD assets.
Cheap at 100x the price.

 

[Kirkhill]

The only solution is to give Ukraine the equipment and support it needs to make Russia go back to the 1991 border.

Anything else simply rewards Putin for a war of aggression to annex territory and sets the stage for it to occur again, and to other countries.

More F-16’s, more HIMARS/MLRS, a few hundred M1A2 and more AD assets.
Cheap at 100x the price.

Putin bombs energy plants hours after telling Trump he would halt attacks

Russia bombed Ukraine energy infrastructure just hours after Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he would halt attacks on the grid.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Vladimir Putin has rejected a proposal for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine but agreed to halt attacks on energy and infrastructure.

After what the Kremlin called a “frank” phone call with Donald Trump, the two leaders agreed that formal negotiations on a 30-day truce would begin “immediately” in the Middle East.

Putin ordered the Russian military to halt attacks on energy plants in Ukraine without delay, the Kremlin said after the 90-minute phone call ended.

But the Kremlin also said that the “complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv” is a condition for any permanent peace deal. Ukraine, and much of Europe, is highly unlikely to agree to this.

The White House said both leaders had agreed on the “need to improve bilateral relations”, adding that the next stage of talks in the Middle East would look at a possible maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea before moving towards a full ceasefire on land and finally a “lasting” peace.

Ukraine has already agreed to a temporary truce that would end long-range missile attacks “from the air and sea”, which the US put to Russia.

6:46PM

Analysis: Some relief for Europe as Trump drives hard bargain​

Europe will never be happy about being merely an observer to the peace negotiations over Ukraine between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

But at first glance, there will be relief in the old world that the US President had not made a raft of fresh concessions to Moscow.

There was undisguised disbelief among European diplomats after Mr Trump’s first call with Putin on Ukraine.

The so-called master of the deal began the talks by caving to Russian demands that Kyiv sacrifice land and never be allowed to join Nato.

Soon afterwards Mr Trump adopted Kremlin talking points including blaming Ukraine for the invasion and attacking Volodymyr Zelensky for not holding presidential elections in wartime.

It is early days.

But it appears that Mr Trump did not offer to recognise the annexed Ukrainian territory of Crimea as Russia or cut off US arms supplies and aid to Ukraine to secure a ceasefire, as some reports suggested he might.

That will be a source of real relief for Keir Starmer and other European leaders, who would struggle to match US supplies of weapons.

After Ukraine accepted US demands for a 30 day ceasefire, they urged Putin to accept Mr Trump’s deal.

Before today’s phone call the Russian leader demanded his own conditions for agreeing to a ceasefire, which have clearly not been met.

One diplomat admitted, “It could have been worse.”

Europe will hope that the consolation prize of a mini-ceasefire on attacks on energy infrastructure alone points to Mr Trump now driving a far harder bargain with Moscow.

The risk is that it helps Russia more than Ukraine. Hitting Russian refineries is one way Kyiv has been able to do real damage to Moscow.

 

[HavokFour]

Putin ordered the Russian military to halt attacks on energy plants in Ukraine without delay, the Kremlin said after the 90-minute phone call ended.

Air Raid Alert Map of Ukraine

Real-time interactive map of air-raid alerts in Ukraine.

alerts.in.ua

 

[Kirkhill]

Air Raid Alert Map of Ukraine

Real-time interactive map of air-raid alerts in Ukraine.

alerts.in.ua

Not sure about anything. Better to keep the tin lid handy.