The War in Ukraine

[RangerRay]

• Ranged attacks against Russian oil infrastructure continues.
• Russian advances slow to not even a crawl
• No way Putin will resort to nukes if he wants to live forever

Weekend Update #149: The Ranged Campaign Against Russian Oil Production Continues

Russian Ground Advances Slow; Putin Wants To Live Forever--So Maybe Won't Nuke The World

phillipspobrien.substack.com

Also, Fico of Slovakia is now trying to make nice with Ukraine.

Strategic effect can be seen in other areas. The Hungarians and Slovakians first hurled threats and bombast at the Ukrainians in August for the Druzhba pipeline attacks. Now, guess what? They are starting to plead with the Ukrainians to give them a break. Slovakian President Robert Fico(one of the most obvious of Putin’s allies inside Russia) met with Zelensky a day ago and tried to make nice. He said Slovakia stood ready to support Ukrainian membership of the EU—in an obvious attempt to curry favor with Kyiv.

Its amazing what not getting your hands on oodles of cheap Russian oil will do!

 

[GK .Dundas]

Speak of the devil, partisans are active again in the occupied territories.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1964348361240104976

On another note, pretty good results for having their arms industry broken up into tiny basement sized bits and scattered all throughout the country.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1964401456254992477

The Ukrainian arms industry is exploding well so is the Russian arms industry.....albeit in a more kinetic manner.

 

[HavokFour]

I have also seen mentions of 8 hour lineups in Eastern Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965050792278167835

 

[KevinB]

On another note, pretty good results for having their arms industry broken up into tiny basement sized bits and scattered all throughout the country.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1964401456254992477

I would be VERY curious how that % was derived at. Given the amount of artillery used, and numbers of vehicles - it seems that any number like that is using some very creative accounting, mostly likely out of his ass.
I suspect that if there was any actual account involved, it is counting a small domestically assembled UAS as 1 Weapon, and also counting a Leo2 one weapon as well.

Ukraine is needing to rebuild industry in the West, as the previously industrial zones of Eastern Ukraine have either been destroyed or are currently occupied by Russian invaders.

 

[RangerRay]

Ukraine is needing to rebuild industry in the West, as the previously industrial zones of Eastern Ukraine have either been destroyed or are currently occupied by Russian invaders.

I can’t remember who it was (maybe a Brit or a Yank), but on a podcast I was listening to, they said that the “industrial” area of occupied Ukraine is mostly rust-belt abandoned factories with few natural resources. They made it sound like that area was not needed for Ukraine to prosper economically.

 

[KevinB]

I can’t remember who it was (maybe a Brit or a Yank), but on a podcast I was listening to, they said that the “industrial” area of occupied Ukraine is mostly rust-belt abandoned factories with few natural resources. They made it sound like that area was not needed for Ukraine to prosper economically.

I’d put them on ignore. The most mineral rich areas are over there. Yes most of the industry in the area is damaged or destroyed, but when you look at what was there, you see that Ukraine didn’t have much in the Western areas when it comes to heavy industries. Steel production was in the SE, in 2021 Ukraine had risen to the the 9th largest steel producer in the world, now that is all in occupied lands and destroyed for the most part. That was nearly 10% of the pre-war economy, and employed 12% of the work force. Now they are moving industries to the West, and steel production has resumed, but it’s taken massive western investment to do that.

Lviv was an IT Tech hub pre invasion, as was Kyiv and Kharkiv. Not exactly bastions of the defense industry.

Economy of Ukraine at war: what are Ukraine's major industries?

Discover Ukraine's leading industries, from agriculture to technology, and learn about how the economy of Ukraine manages during war.

rubryka.com

It’s a decent overview, but a little rosy and glosses over some major issues that Ukraine faces rebuilding.

 

[HavokFour]

New video from Mr. Lines on Maps regarding the renewed focus on oil infrastructure strikes in Russia.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I’d put them on ignore. The most mineral rich areas are over there. Yes most of the industry in the area is damaged or destroyed, but when you look at what was there, you see that Ukraine didn’t have much in the Western areas when it comes to heavy industries. Steel production was in the SE, in 2021 Ukraine had risen to the the 9th largest steel producer in the world, now that is all in occupied lands and destroyed for the most part. That was nearly 10% of the pre-war economy, and employed 12% of the work force. Now they are moving industries to the West, and steel production has resumed, but it’s taken massive western investment to do that.

Lviv was an IT Tech hub pre invasion, as was Kyiv and Kharkiv. Not exactly bastions of the defense industry.

Economy of Ukraine at war: what are Ukraine's major industries?

Discover Ukraine's leading industries, from agriculture to technology, and learn about how the economy of Ukraine manages during war.

rubryka.com

It’s a decent overview, but a little rosy and glosses over some major issues that Ukraine faces rebuilding.

There's the large amount of cheap, arable land thing too:

 

[Maxman1]

There's the large amount of cheap, arable land thing too:

View attachment 95624

That says more about population density than land size.

 

[HavokFour]

Ukraine has responded to Russia's attack yesterday. Multiple strikes in Donetsk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965139720033407208

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965106042507067512

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965141147854229908

 

[Skysix]

Crimean strategy is a long game so don't expect a sudden use of Flamingo missiles on the Kerch bridge.

 

[brihard]

Lots of online chatter in the last 20-30 of multiple Russian drones over Poland, potentially some shoot downs. Anyone seen anything solid on this?

 

[HavokFour]

Lots of online chatter in the last 20-30 of multiple Russian drones over Poland, potentially some shoot downs. Anyone seen anything solid on this?

Ongoing drone attack on Ukraine by Russia (100+ drones). Seems more than a couple have strayed into Poland, they scrambled a couple fighters. Haven't seen anything about any shootdowns yet.

Crimea is also under missile and drone attack by Ukraine at this time.

 

[SeaKingTacco]

Ongoing drone attack on Ukraine by Russia (100+ drones). Seems more than a couple have strayed into Poland, they scrambled a couple fighters. Haven't seen anything about any shootdowns yet.

Crimea is also under missile and drone attack by Ukraine at this time.

This will get spicy if the Poles go Article 5…

 

[HavokFour]

Coincidentally.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com%2Fpost%2F3lygtap3yrs2m

 

[brihard]

Let’s see what actually firms up… Something anomalous seems to be happening, but I’m seeing a ton of retreats and repackaging but not much original independent info…

 

[Czech_pivo]

Coincidentally.

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com%2Fpost%2F3lygtap3yrs2m

Relax, it’s Taco night Tuesday!

 

[HavokFour]

Relax, it’s Taco night Tuesday!

Only for one. Pizza traffic has spiked heavily in DC over the last hour.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965566186831347851

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965567146647589112

Update:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965569885288968613

 

[HavokFour]

Rumblings but unconfirmed that NATO has made a call for an emergency meeting of leaders. There are also reports of at least one drone inside Poland bearing straight towards Germany.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Only for one. Pizza traffic has spiked heavily in DC over the last hour.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965566186831347851

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965567146647589112

Update:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965569885288968613

The invasion of Belarus has begun.
Poland is going in and taking out Lukashenko.

Which of course is not true.
But strange that Poland captured a Belarus spy and expelled Belarus diplomats as well.
Lastly, Poland announced the closing of its border crossings with Belarus earlier today.
And then all this happens.