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The War in Ukraine

Kevin - my concern is that I truly believe Putin is fully aware of the fact that there is now no possible scenario where he backs off and survives. Prior to this war he had systematically pillaged the Russian coffers to pad his own bank accounts. Had he left power peacefully then, a full audit would have seen him shot and dumped in a bog. Now, he has started a fruitless war that has left tens of thousands of Russians dead, and probably hundreds of thousands wounded/disabled. The economy and the military will take decades to recover. He is effectively painted into a corner now.

The 'so what' of this is the fact that desperate people can and will resort to desperate measures. For a country that was once a nuclear and conventional superpower, and seeks to regain that status, this is a dangerous time indeed.
The russian economy is now dependent on war, its GDP growth is because of the defense industry only, if the war ends tomorrow, demobilization and the end of state weapons orders could fully collapse the economy. Putin now needs war in order to prevent the collapse of Russia, which is also why there is no way he would stop at just Ukraine.
 
Continued war is not the only path out of this predicament for Russia. I'm sure there can be economic incentives on the table.
 
The russian economy is now dependent on war, its GDP growth is because of the defense industry only, if the war ends tomorrow, demobilization and the end of state weapons orders could fully collapse the economy. Putin now needs war in order to prevent the collapse of Russia, which is also why there is no way he would stop at just Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...conomy-trump-mulls-more-sanctions-2025-01-23/

2025 isn’t looking good for Russia.
 
The russian economy is now dependent on war, its GDP growth is because of the defense industry only, if the war ends tomorrow, demobilization and the end of state weapons orders could fully collapse the economy. Putin now needs war in order to prevent the collapse of Russia, which is also why there is no way he would stop at just Ukraine.
He could pull back the troops to 2022 line, dig in and hold, demanding the Ukrainians leave Kursk. Trump could force Ukraine to accept that ceasefire. Putin then keeps the army intact and the war economy going to rearm, slowly releasing troops and slowing equipment/ammunition orders for a steady economic transition.
 

Makes you wonder if a combination of the countermeasures used on the Leopard 1 in the video and an APS will make lighter armoured vehicles (light-er not light) more viable on the modern battlefield. Things like reactive armour, cope cages and APS mean that the 'Protection' portion of the Protection/Mobility/Firepower triangle no longer equates in the same way to increased weight (and reduced mobility/firepower capacity).
 

Makes you wonder if a combination of the countermeasures used on the Leopard 1 in the video and an APS will make lighter armoured vehicles (light-er not light) more viable on the modern battlefield. Things like reactive armour, cope cages and APS mean that the 'Protection' portion of the Protection/Mobility/Firepower triangle no longer equates in the same way to increased weight (and reduced mobility/firepower capacity).
I watched the video, 11 hits it survived total which when you think about it for the old leopard 1 is pretty incredible.
 


Less than a month into 2025, the ‘Year of the Snake’ looks set to live up to its ominous reputation.

For Russians, it is the symbol of upheaval in the Chinese zodiac: the revolutions of 1905 and 1917, the Nazi invasion of 1941, Stalin’s death in 1953, and the Soviet collapse in 1989 all fell under its shadow. Now, some fear history is once again coiling to strike.

Why? Donald Trump’s abrupt shift in tone towards the war in Ukraine.

While most Ukrainians preferred the uncertainty of mercurial Trump over the slow-drip predictability of the cautious President Biden – “anything but this slow death,” one told me – they were still anxious.

Yet two weeks ago, as Trump’s inauguration approached, the atmosphere shifted. Sources closely tuned to the White House transition team told me about a growing urgency to project strength, fearing a repeat of the Biden administration’s chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, and the damage it did to American prestige.

The scales of Russia’s economy are tipping toward disaster. Controlling just 20 per cent of Ukraine, with perhaps as many as a million casualties, defeats at sea and in the air, reliance on North Korea, and scant territorial gains, Russia is bleeding resources. Kharkiv’s buffer zone remains a distant dream, missile strikes have failed to cripple Ukraine’s resolve, and the cost of war weighs heavily: 6 per cent of the entire federal budget goes to caring for the wounded and compensating families of the dead.

Inflation is coiling at 9 per cent, interest rates bite at 23 per cent, and prices for basics like bread and butter are rising sharply. The past tells us that when Russia’s economy suffers, civil unrest is often not far behind.

Then, two days ago, came Trump’s clearest signal yet, published – in his inimitable style – on social media: “I’m not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people and always had a very good relationship with President Putin… All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don’t make a ‘deal,’ and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries.”

The threat is clear: negotiate now, or face far fiercer economic constrictions.

This is a significant departure from the Biden administration’s cautious stance on sanctioning Russia. Fearing global market disruptions, Biden kept resisting measures that could seriously threaten Russia’s oil and gas profits, even discouraging Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil fields financing the war.

Yet now there are rumours Trump may even leverage $330bn in frozen Russian state assets, threatening to give them to Kyiv to buy US weapons – a move appealing to Trump’s transactional instincts. Military aid could also ramp up, particularly if he pivots the narrative to frame Moscow, not Kyiv, as an obstacle to peace.
 
Seeing as there's a lot of drone talk in this thread, I'll put this here.

Imagine crossing a field with pers and vehicles and a couple of hundred of these AI controlled suckers pop out of the ground? Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

 
Continued war is not the only path out of this predicament for Russia. I'm sure there can be economic incentives on the table.
He could pull out from all internationally recognised Ukrainian territory, agree to NATO, start a schedule of reparations to Ukraine and also agree to submit to ICC trials of war criminals - and then have sanctions lifted and get economic aid to rebuild.

I put the probability as approaching zero however UNLESS he is militarily trounced.
 
Seeing as there's a lot of drone talk in this thread, I'll put this here.

Imagine crossing a field with pers and vehicles and a couple of hundred of these AI controlled suckers pop out of the ground? Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

The sapper in me longs tobe able to seed a minefield with these... Especially if they are AI enabled with target acquisition/recognition and autonomous attack. Even more so if able to swarm or be linked to route denial mines or tank kill capable larger drones. Sort of a 21st century 'Bouncing Betty'

The west is SO far behind in UAS
doctrine, tactics, acquisition, deployment and training. Would suffer considerable loses if a unit were to be assigned to the front in Ukraine as-is today.

I would venture to say rotate a brigade from the line to NTC and equip/support them as they are in Ukraine and put them up against the Blackhorse in unscripted free play and a lot would be learned. The hard way.

101st Airborne promises to revolutionize US operations with in-house drone production
 
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