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Theater & Continental Balistic Missile Defence . . . and Canada

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I don't follow this argument that we should stop because the technology does not yet work.  Even more so, arguments that the technology will never work are wrong.

If we kill the project because the technology has not worked, then the engineers stop working on the problems.  If the engineers stop working on the problems, then we stop getting closer to solutions.  If we stop getting closer to solutions, then BMD will never work.  So, all the people arguing that we have technological problems to over come are really arguing that we should continue engineering a solution.  (Maybe they should focus more on the economy of research and not the fact that research is just incomplete).

We can do a lot of impressive things with technology today.  On board control systems could automatically make changes to the path of an interceptor missile if changes were detected in the trajectory of the target missile.  sub-munition systems could,at the last fraction of a second, saturate an area that the target missile is passing through with fletches or tiny air burst grenades (reducing accuracy concerns slightly).  I don't know how the engineers are trying to make BMD work, but you can imagine it is involving cutting edge technologies that many of us may be oblivious too.
 
Look at the requirements to put human beings on the Moon.  And this was down with vacuum tubed technology.  As McG said, technological rejections of the BMD are simply inane.

"If there's a will, there's a way."
 
Infanteer said:
Look at the requirements to put human beings on the Moon.   And this was down with vacuum tubed technology.   As McG said, technological rejections of the BMD are simply inane.

"If there's a will, there's a way."

To be clear, I didn't state that it will never work- just that it won't today.  Both you and McG are correct in stating that technology is constantly evolving.  However, it isn't technology that's acting as the main obstacle.  The engineers working on the project have certain project goals- the operational parameters of the system.  It's the latter that I take issue with.  Initially the system was supposed to intercept a simple (no counter-measuer) attack in one stage of flight- this simply doesn't hold true in a practical attack.  It has since evolved to include all stages of flight and some counter-measures, which I believe is a step in the right direction.  However, this should have been done from the start.

All that being said, the technological argument isn't inane- it's being realistic (and not only my opinion, but that of many people far more qualified than I am)  Processes, systems, and materials are constantly evolving and could help clear some obstacles- but this will not happen if the designers of the sytem gloss over them because they are not part of the operational requirements.  Granted, there is a certain hush-hushness about this type of work and it can be argued that everything's been thought of and we're just not in the know- which I'm willing to accept but would offer a rebuttal that the polliticians should keep it to themselves until they can show a fully operational system (similar to the stealth bomber- another project that was dubbed impossible by many)

Just mu $0.02
 
The BMD system being openly tested is the terminal defense interceptor, which is designed to do the hardest job: striking an incoming warhead as it is reentering the atmosphere.

There are lots of other parts to BMD however. The US Navy is upgrading their fleet air defense system to allow intercepts, and the "Patriot Block III" and above missiles are much more effective than during the Persian Gulf War. More futuristic systems include the Airborn Laser System, which has the potential to attack missiles during launch, or to fire up into space during the mid course phase. The logic of global defense coverage means the system will evolve into something like G-PALS (Global Protection Against Limited Strikes), with small interceptors orbiting the Earth and able to carry out engagements from the time the missile leaves the atmosphere (post boost) until the re-entry phase. Any practical system will have to offer a layered defense which can attack enemy weapons during boost, mid course and re-entry.

The United States could have a fully effective BMD system in place today if they chose, simply by substituting nuclear warheads for Kinetic Energy interceptors. For reasons of their own, they choose not to. Since nations like Russia, China, India or France have the potential need for BMD but not the technical ability to create KE interceptors, we should probably expect to see nuclear armed BMD systems appearing there in the next few decades.
 
a_majoor said:
Since nations like Russia, China, India or France have the potential need for BMD but not the technical ability to create KE interceptors, we should probably expect to see nuclear armed BMD systems appearing there in the next few decades.

I ran a search on google before and found pictures of Russian nuclear interceptors from the 1960's.  Can't seem to find them any more though.  But anyway, nuclear interceptors have been around for a long time.
 
Missile shield ok'd months ago
Canada 'committed' to controversial pact, documents show

Mike Blanchfield
CanWest News Service
Friday, January 14, 2005


The federal government told senior U.S. officials nine months ago that Canada was committed to joining the Bush administration's controversial ballistic missile shield, Defence Department documents say.

Newly declassified military documents show Paul Martin's Liberal government has been privately telling the United States it wants to join the shield, even though they have been publicly dragging their heels on making a decision on the controversial issue.

Mr. Martin faces intense pressure from some opposition critics, as well as some Cabinet members, not to join the shield, which is intended to protect North America from a ballistic missile attack, but has been widely criticized by scientists as unworkable.

Other Cabinet ministers, such as Defence Minister Bill Graham, want Canada to sign on. But Mr. Martin has postponed making a final decision until the Liberals' policy convention in March.

Prior to last year's federal election -- and less than a week before the Prime Minister's first trip to Washington to meet President George W. Bush -- government officials told the ranking U.S. State Department official on Western Hemisphere relations that Canada would support the shield.

"Canada is committed to reaching an agreement on co-operation in the ballistic missile defence of North American during the coming months," says a March 23 briefing note by the Defence Department's policy branch in preparation for a call to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noreiga.

"Canada sees its participation in BMD [ballistic missile defence] as being anchored in NORAD, which has for almost 50 years been an integral part of our partnership in the defence of North America."

Five months later, the Liberals approved an amendment to the NORAD (North American Aerospace Command) treaty to allow the joint Canada-U.S. unit to serve as the command and control centre of the shield system.

On his two-day visit to Canada six weeks ago, President Bush urged Canada to join the shield.

But Mr. Martin continues to delay a decision, saying only that he will act in Canada's interests and only when the time is right.

However, some defence documents, among hundreds of pages of heavily censored material recently made public under Access to Information, show the government has been working toward joining the system.

A Feb. 6, 2004, briefing note for an informal meeting of NATO defence ministers said: "Over the past eight months, our officials have made considerable progress on exploring possible Canadian participation in ballistic missile defence of North America.

"The government of Canada wants to continue to work closely with the U.S., as we have done for over 60 years, in the defence of the continent. BMD will build on this co-operation."

Another memo says Canada's participation in the shield would not compromise national sovereignty. "Ensuring that Canada continues to take responsibility for the defence of Canadians would be an exercise in sovereignty, not a diminishment of it," the memorandum states. "Canada and the U.S. have for generations co-operated on the joint defence of the continent to our mutual benefit. Canadian participation in the missile defence of North America would enable Canada to continue to play a meaningful role ..."

The memo says the possible financial costs to Canada were not part of the discussions, adding it is "not yet clear whether the U.S. would be interested in Canadian territory for future phases of the system."

So far, the United States has not asked to deploy the shield's systems, now comprising ground-based interceptor rockets in Alaska and California, on Canadian soil.
Source
 
Ok, Mr Martin, it is time to s**t or get off the pot over this issue. Right now all you are doing is alienating the Canadian Left and the US Administration.

The Americans will go ahead with or without Canada, our choice is do we get a voice in the operation of the system (and watch the fireworks shore as missile intercepts occur over the Pacific); or have no voice and dodge radioactivce debris from intercepts over Canadian territiory.

<disgruntled>Wow, what a hard choice that must be </disgruntled>
 
Yet a bit more fuel for the fire, from today's Globe and Mail at: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050206.wdiplo0206a/BNStory/National/

Poor PM PM, if it's not missile defence it's a purported request for Canadian troops for Iraq and complaints from his newly minted CDS and the GG about government parsimony and the welfare and safety of Canadian soldiers ... things military seem to be conspiring to make earning a majority government more and more difficult.   Any wonder so many, many Liberals don't like defence/military issues?

Waffling on missile defence plan hurts Canada, experts say

By BETH GORHAM
Canadian Press


Harriman, N.Y. â ” It's time for Canada to stop dithering and join the U.S. missile defence plan so it can move on to issues like co-ordinating maritime defence and transborder emergencies, a major conference on Canada-U.S. relations concluded Sunday.

A majority of government officials, academics, diplomats and others from both sides of the border said the missile project has been wrongly linked to â Å“science fiction scenariosâ ? of weapons in space and that there would be ample opportunity for Canada to get out if the U.S. ever moves in that direction.

â Å“A positive Canadian decision would get the issue off the table and end the debate which has unfortunately obscured more than it has enlightened,â ? said an initial draft report from the American Assembly at Columbia University.

â Å“Even though Canada does not share the U.S. assessments of external threats to the same degree, it has no alternative but to adjust to U.S. perceptions of what menaces North America,â ? said the draft, which will see a number of revisions.

The assembly's report wasn't unanimous. A handful of high-profile Canadians, including former prime minister Joe Clark, expressed reservations about the missile defence plan at the sessions.

But a wide spectrum endorsed it after debate sessions during the four-day gathering, where there were few top-level U.S. officials and more Canadians than Americans.

The elite assembly on cross-border issues last met two decades ago, when it played a major role in pushing the concept of free trade.

This time, the gathering rejected the notion that one â Å“big ideaâ ? can heal rifts in what has become a troubled relationship exacerbated by Canada's decision to stay out of the Iraq war and the unpopularity of U.S. President George W. Bush north of the border.

â Å“It is by now evident that Canada has lost influence in Washington,â ? said the group, which recommended several smaller initiatives. Among them:

â ” A general increase in Canada's defence budget, in part to improve its ability to get to world hotspots quickly.

â ” More money for an overwhelmed border with too few lanes, bridges and tunnels.

â ” A public airing of little-known U.S. plans to require biometric identification for all cross-border travellers on Jan. 1, 2008.

â ” Closer co-operation on product regulations and a mechanism for resolving trade disputes. Those issues are expected to be addressed this spring in a so-called three amigos summit between Canada, the United States and Mexico.
â ” More direct contact between Canadian officials and the U.S. Congress.
The assembly rejected the notion that values are widely diverging between the U.S. and Canada, a notion reinforced with the re-election of Mr. Bush and an outcry from people in liberal Democratic states who pronounced their similarities with Canadians.

â Å“There are more differences within the two countries than between them,â ? said the assembly, but the idea of a values chasm is hurting relations and making it harder to resolve bilateral disputes.

â Å“We are witnessing something new in the relationship â ” the emergence on the American right of a troubling anti-Canadianism, albeit confined to strident voices in the media,â ? said the draft report.

â Å“Nonetheless, this misguided impulse pales beside the disturbing and persistent currents of anti-Americanism in Canada,â ? it said.

The missile defence issue could crush the minority government of Prime Minister Paul Martin, who faces opposition within his party and among New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois.

Rudyard Griffiths, executive director of the Dominion Institute research group in Toronto, said in an interview outside the conference sessions that he had â Å“become a little more comfortable with the idea.â ?

â Å“It's not part of a hidden agenda to tie us into Fortress America. But it was the wrong messenger at the wrong time with the right message. Americans need to understand that opposition to this has to do with U.S. foreign policy.â ?

Robert Greenhill, a visiting executive at the International Development Research Centre in Ottawa, said Canadians have been too focused on missile defence as Mr. Bush's big project without considering that there is little risk in joining.

â Å“If you're in a marriage and your partner thinks it's important, why not?â ?

Pamela Wallin, Canada's consul general in New York, said she believes most Canadians support signing on, despite polls suggesting otherwise.

â Å“Being at the table is an important way of hearing what the Americans are saying. It's a way of exercising our sovereignty.â ?

The timing of the gathering was important, said Ms. Wallin, because Canada-U.S. relations have gone off course.

â Å“For the Americans, it's all about security and we use sovereignty as our lens on the relationship. Each side doesn't understand why the other side is so obsessed.â ?

 
Quick poll: how many people on this board would be upset if the Liberals were crushed in an election?

The only downside to this is the new Conservative government would find BMD has become so toxic that they would not be able to deal with the issue during their first mandate either. We might be able to slip under the radar with exotic R&D projects, upgraded C4I systems and maybe dual purpose space based sensors to support BMD (really all we could afford to contribute anyway, IMO), but I suspect that the anti-American, anti-defense crowd would look at EVERY proposed military expenditure with a view to derailing it if there is any possibility of it being linked to BMD (Why, Canadian service members could potentially be wearing those boots in Colorado Springs!).

Damned if we do, and Damned if we dont.
 
Rusty Old Joint said:
Poor PM PM, if it's not missile defence it's a purported request for Canadian troops for Iraq and complaints from his newly minted CDS and the GG about government parsimony and the welfare and safety of Canadian soldiers ... things military seem to be conspiring to make earning a majority government more and more difficult.   Any wonder so many, many Liberals don't like defence/military issues?

I guess this is the "reaping of the harvest" since successive Liberal candidates have regarded the Defence portfolio as (I think the word was "cesspool" or something to that effect) an annoyance - remember the stories that stated that Bill Graham must have ****ed up to earn the demotion from Finance.
 
The Defence Minister may, indeed, back missile defence but, cccording to very well connected insider John Ibbitson, in today's Globe and Mail (see: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050210.wibbitson10/BNStory/National/ ) Paul Martin cannot because he will surrender Canada to Carolyn Parrish et al in a couple of weeks, at the Liberal Part of Canada convention in Ottawa.

Why Ottawa likely won't join Bush's missile plan

By JOHN IBBITSON
From Thursday's Globe and Mail

The time has come to face the truth: Missile defence is dead.

Barring an unforeseen reversal, the Liberal government will almost certainly not endorse the U.S. ballistic-missile defence program.

It is simply not possible to bring a motion before the House of Commons affirming Canadian participation in BMD. Opposition within the Liberal caucus is so strong that such a motion could not pass without the solid support of the Conservatives. And Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is unwilling, and possibly unable, to guarantee that support.

At the Liberal policy conference in the first week of March, delegates will vote on a motion opposing Canadian participation in the missile shield. Those watching the convention have concluded that the motion is likely to pass.

Any attempt by Prime Minister Paul Martin to sign on to the program despite the wishes of his own party could produce a massive rupture within the Liberal Party and caucus. Instead, citing the will of the grassroots, the Prime Minister is likely to accept that Canada can offer no further support for the initiative.

Only heavy and direct lobbying from President George W. Bush when the two leaders meet at a NATO summit later this month could force the Liberals to reconsider their options. But Washington has already concluded that odds no longer favour Canadian participation. There have been no substantive talks between the two countries on this subject in the past two months. The Americans are prepared for the eventuality of Canadian officers not participating in the system's command structure, which means it will have to be removed from NORAD and given to a separate agency.

A final declaration by Mr. Martin that missile defence is dead in Canada would certainly place a strain on Canada-U.S. relations in the realm of continental security. The Canadians, at least, hope that trade issues would be unaffected, but American expectations of a new era of relations between the two countries with the arrival of Mr. Martin as Prime Minister could be permanently soured.

As many as 30 Liberal MPs â ” mostly from Quebec and from within the women's caucus â ” are ready to vote against any pro-missile-defence motion brought before the House. Even though the Americans are asking for mostly symbolic support â ” there would be no significant Canadian financial contribution, and neither missiles nor radar installations would be on Canadian soil â ” the concept of an anti-ballistic-missile defence system is, for these MPs, so objectionable in principle that they do not believe Canada should lend it legitimacy.

With the Bloc Québécois and NDP caucuses also solidly opposed, the Liberals could count on only about 100 votes, which means the fate of the motion would rest with the 99 members of the Conservative caucus.

But Mr. Harper has refused to offer his support for the Liberal motion until he sees its exact wording. As well, although opinions differ, several Tory MPs from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, representing the party's Progressive Conservative wing, may well have trouble supporting the motion.

Mr. Harper knows that voting against missile defence â ” even though he has repeatedly supported it in principle â ” would lead to a humiliating Liberal defeat. Endorsing the motion, on the other hand, would not only rescue Mr. Martin, his political archenemy, from a predicament, but could exacerbate the Red Tory/Reform split inside his own party.

A motion opposing Canadian participation in missile defence will be on the floor of the Liberal policy convention, which is being held March 3-6 in Ottawa. Headcounters have concluded that the motion, which has been brought forward by the party's youth wing, is favoured to pass.

At that point, Mr. Martin will have few options but to inform the Americans that Canada will not be participating in the new system's command structure.

The only hope for BMD supporters is that the party leadership will persuade the convention to amend the motion, saying the party opposes missile defence but will respect the Prime Minister's final decision. But even with such a lukewarm endorsement, Mr. Martin would still face the challenge of getting House support.

For these reasons, those within the Liberal Party who support joining missile defence, and those who oppose it, believe Canada will not sign on.

Ho-hum ... so life in perennially Liberal Canada goes on, and on, and on, as we slide, ever so gracefully, into global irrelevance ... welcome to Puerto Rico with snow and lousy health care.

 
It may not work now!, But with more research and development, it may work and it may just save NA lives one day,
I think Canada Should support and participate in this.
 
It sounded hocky from the beginning.
A) Why do we need this again...I don't remember any ballistics slamming into N.A. from foriegn countries.
B) Other countries will see this as a slap in the face and wonder why N.A. is stepping up defences and just not the US.
C) The only country at risk is The United States..but did they make the same offer to Mexico? (they are apart of NA, as i had the map upside down) ;)
D) Deja vous w/ NORAD system.  What a waste that was. (Did any Russians come flying over the North Pole with santa and his little elves to deliver presents for all the boys and girls) no didn't think so. Just developed a trade route for flying in and out farming equipement and such.
Unless they dropped a Combine out the back door that would be an interesting to see as this thing tries to and shoot it down.
E) Could this thing mistaken a Jet for a missle and ooops we just shot down a 747. mind you a 15% hit ratio isn't bad I guess. Those people should feel safe. 
F) As a taxpayer in this country as everyone else as we going to have another Deifenbacher saga?

They've had years to improve that percentage....it's a waste of money.  Look at the patriots they had...wasn't that the same thing in 1991 as they are proposing now but on a much much larger scale.  And what did patriots do?  You would think they had ample time to buff out the rough edges in 14 years ago with technology ever so slightly changing. 

These are questions that an average person like myself would ask someone in the "know".  I'm not really for it. And i don't think millions of canadians are for it either.  But if it happens it happens and there is nothing we could do about it anyway.

-Buzz
 
This is a bad case of Deja Vu. Could the moderators merge this with the BMD thread in the Politics section? Most of these points have been raised and debated in almost exactly the same form there.
 
CFL said:
Missile defence shield will do nothing to prevent a more likely attack by a suitcase nuke.

Agreed, but in so far as Martin was concerned the utility or even feasibility of missile defence was never an issue.   He stood with missile defence's few proponents back when Chrétien was waffling, 18 months ago.   He wanted to do many things to improve Canada/US relations â “ agreeing to missile defence was one of them.

Chrétien, according to the rumours I hear, had already decided to join missile defence just before he was forced out but he knew it was a divisive issue and so he decided to leave it as another political cow pie ... into which Martin might step.

Martin, unerringly, tromped on it ...

Martin wants (has wanted for months and months) to shore up relations with the USA because he understand that to do so is in Canada's mid- to long term best interests; missile defence is an important litmus test for the Bush White House.   It was a 'slam dunk' a year ago, just the sort of thing that a brand new PM could do to start things off on a really good foot.   Many, many Liberals were opposed but in the first flush of Martin's new regime those Liberals would have gone along with whatever he wanted ... he, habitually, wanted to dither; dither he did until the blush was off the rose, etc and the Carolyn Parrish wing had seized the political high ground and, thanks to further dithering on the part of our nation's â ?leaderâ ?, she has won the day â “ even after being thrown out of the party!

Martin is getting desperate â “ he cannot lose any more support in Ontario or Québec; most Québecers and many Ontarians oppose missile defence, ergo the Liberal Party of Canada opposes missile defence.   Canada's best, even vital interests must take their proper place, well behind the immediate interests of the Liberal Party.   Good relations with our best friend and neighbour and only important trading partner (something like 40% of Canadian jobs depend upon US exports, I think) be damned: the only thing that matters is to re-elect at Liberal government.
 
CFL said:
Missile defence shield will do nothing to prevent a more likely attack by a suitcase nuke.

umm...

Body armour does nothing to stop knife wounds to the groin.
Helmets only cover the top of your head.
AFV armour won't stop anti-tank mines.

You getting the picture here?
 
I am but I think your missing mine.  The largest threat to the US is not by a State or Country but by a group of individuals with no solide ties to anything and are more likely to unleash a suitcase bomb on wallstreet then Daffy Duck is to launch ICBM's.

Besides the Missile shiled techno is largely unproven.
 
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