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Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

June 16, 2024

From June 6 to 13, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with a deep dive into what concerns Canadians the most and the performance of political parties on these issues.

Note, all of the interviews in this survey were conducted after the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight interest rate.

Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 20 over the Liberals

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3. About a month ago, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was 16-points. Today it is 20. At 22%, this is the lowest vote share we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.

Slide4-4.jpgSlide6-3.jpgRegionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead shrank compared to our last survey, but they continue to be ahead of the Liberals by 14 points. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12-points with the Conservatives in third at 22%.
 
June 16, 2024

From June 6 to 13, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with a deep dive into what concerns Canadians the most and the performance of political parties on these issues.

Note, all of the interviews in this survey were conducted after the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight interest rate.

Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 20 over the Liberals

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3. About a month ago, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was 16-points. Today it is 20. At 22%, this is the lowest vote share we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.

View attachment 86021View attachment 86022Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead shrank compared to our last survey, but they continue to be ahead of the Liberals by 14 points. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12-points with the Conservatives in third at 22%.

Ontario and Quebec are the only ones that really matter though, pretty much.
 
Speaking of the Abacus numbers, when this much of a Team Red old-timer says it's time to go ....
... it's time to change big or go ... This from the end of the latest podcast (pretty powerful minute or so when each person gets a "Hey You" to send a message out to someone or some group)
Good podcast to subscribe to as well.
 
Hopefully not much lower, or else the Liberals may fire Trudeau and put in someone they can claim to be new and different!
If BMW-ROLEX Man thinks about these numbers for long, we may be short line astern behind UK and France…
 
I don’t know. The NDP has always been politically incompetent, but have only gotten worse since Singh became leader.
True, but while not Jack Layton or Tom Mulcair level intuitive, he may see that more seats than Team Beijing may translate into more donations and stronger party coffers…and more nice suits and cars and watches.
 
Looks to me like LPC has now found the floor of their natural support (ie, those people who will vote red, regardless of the issues).
Every party has that group, my dad would have voted NDP if they ran a goat and frankly a goat would have been preferably to the candidate they did run here.
 
Perhaps not, but if the Libs decide to ditch Trudeau and he is still in bed with him the ultimate loser is going to be the NDP party

Personally, I don't care which one bottoms out first. They'll probably be so close to each other, it won't matter.
 
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